2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.
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your answer indicates to me that you’re just playing lip service to a claim that you do not deny climate change is happening. Do you accept that the earth has warmed by about 1.1c relative to pre-industrial averages?
If not, how much do you think it has warmed and what peer reviewed data can you point to to support this?
You also fundamentally miss the point of AGW
AGW doesn’t mean that the AMO or the Synoptics, or land use changes etc, do not affect the weather. All of the natural variability and other human factors still drive the weather. The human ghg emissions don’t account for all of the heat in a heatwave. There could have been a heatwave in British Colombia without AGW, it could even have been a record breaking one, but the CO2 signal added heat to that heatwave and also affected things like how long it persisted and where it occurred.
you talk about the AMO as being a driver of weather, climate change has absolutely overwhelmed the AMO ‘signal’
SSTs are so much warmer now that to see an AMO trend at all, you need to subtract the AGW related element from the observations to see where we would be in the AMO cycle without AGW
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1186/figures/1
AGW now dwarfs the AMO, so if you believe the AMO is a significant driver of weather events and extremes, then surely AGW is an even bigger driver than the AMO was?
no climate scientist thinks the C02 signal is the only factor in the weather, all the Synoptics still matter, but those Synoptics are affected by the enormous amounts of energy added to the planet because we have inadvertently geo-engineered our atmosphere
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I seriously question some of the data that are included in making that 1.1 degrees figure, for reasons such as outlined in my post from the other day. You have still not commented on that, good or bad, but if increasing numbers of different types of stations are increasingly being included in land temperature records then it stands to reason that this figure will be falsely inflated.
You said (re. the Canadian heatwave)
the CO2 signal added heat to that heatwave and also affected things like how long it persisted and where it occurred.
Exactly how much extra heat did 140 ppm of extra CO2 add, given that we don't really know what ECS is? What's the formula for calculating it?
Regarding SST, let's take a look at the chart in the recently published State of Ireland's Climate 2020, in which they showed data for Malin Head up to 2018 (not sure why not include 2019 and 2020). In any case, given my extensive skills at inserting datapoints on charts 😉, I've added the 2020 data in orange (11.25, from here, not yet quality controlled). I can't find 2019 data anywhere, but from the second graph on that met.ie page it looks slightly higher than 2020, with 2021 so far coming in below 2020).
Your charts only goes up to 2008. The Met Éireann report chose to quote the anomaly for period from 2009, with no word on the most recent trend, which would appear to be flat. The AMO increased during the mid-1990s and the SST followed. The AMO has remained flat positive since, as has the SST. Only one station, but I didn't choose it. They also didn't show data for the previous positive AMO phase pre-1960, which is a pity, as it would probably have shown a positive SST anomaly too. That wouldn't suit the narrative, though. I think it's pretty clear that the AMO is the dominant factor in our SST, which in turn will have an effect on temperature and rainfall.
But let's talk about sea level, which they also reference in the report. They strangely show no timeseries for that but say that
"Satellite observations indicate that the sea level around Ireland has risen by approximately 2-3mm/year since the early 1990s"
and that
"Analysis of sea level data from Dublin Bay suggests a rise of approximately 1.7mm/year since 1938 which is consistent with global average rates."
There is no mention of the shorter-term trends within this data series, which show high variability, especially since 2016 in Dublin. Further afield, Malin Head doesn't have an up-to-date dataset available here (unless someone knows of another source), but there's not much of a longterm upward trend up to 2002 anyway.
Nearby Portrush has a better series. It shows a trend of ~0.9 mm/yr from 1995-2020, which is significantly less than the 2-3 mm quoted. I know different places have different rates, but the data would suggest it's a lot more complicated than is being expressed in that climate report.
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Just to whinge a bit more about local station effects. This is the actual Siracusa station that reported 48.8 C last week.
The temperature sensor shield is highlighted. It's sitting a few cm directly above a horizontal metal pole, which itself is attached to a vertical pole containing the large datalogger unit.
In most cases the effects of these nearby artificial surfaces would be negligible, However, when you get to talking about those extreme cases, these effects must become significant. The horizontal metal pole is likely to be a significant source of heat, especially as it's right below the sensor. Similarly the nearby datalogger, which is a box of electronics which itself will heat up inside, however the outer housing, despite being white, will still be a source of heat. I can't touch my balcony railings, coated with white PVC, in Sardinia during the middle of the day. There is also a dark green railing immediately surrounding the sensors.
Zooming out a little, this is the immediate local site. A small road and thick concrete wall are just a few metres away. Again, I know from experience how hot those types of walls get during the afternoon.
Even the ground gets extremely hot in this setup at this time of the year. The Google Map image above is from July 2019 and shows fairly bare and scorched ground. There is still come green in that image, but it is more likely to be completely devoid of any green grass at this time of the year, as is currently the case in Sardinia. My nearest station there was reporting maximum surface temperatures (T-Superficiale) of up to 48 C last week while air temperatures (T-aria) were up to 40 C. We would not see such high surface temperatures if covered in green grass.
The other stations in the Siracusa region, while still high, didn't reach the same highs. The hottest, Lentini, was around 2 degrees lower (46.9 C) It's still almost 40 km away from the Siracusa station, but is only 5 km from Catania Sigonella airport to its north and a similar distance inland. It reached a max of "only" 44.4 C on the same day. That's a significant difference of 2.5 degrees.
The point of all this is that extreme temperatures are the focus of much of the talk about climate change, however little consideration is given to the points above.
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Interesting read, though it was more focused overall on the synoptics of the then current heatwave than putting the heatwave into historical context, which is to be acknowledged that they did mention 2003 as being the last major event.
That site itself does seem to have data available for the public to scrutinise for themselves. but.. not to 'foreign domains' apparently.
Mean oul shites. 😂
New Moon
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