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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So roughly:

    1.7mil unvaccinated / 3.1mil vaccinated (1.82 multiplier)

    127 unvaccinated in hospital (vaccine aside), we would expect to see 231 vaccinated, but we've only seen 110.

    32 unvaccinated in ICU, we would expect to see 58 vaccinated, but there's only been 7.

    Obviously it's very rare for under 12's to need ICU care, so removing them from the unvaccinated population would see an even bigger difference.

    It would be great to see the age's and vaccination status of cases and hospitalizations as it would be needed to really see the impact from vaccinations.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    People with underlying conditions are going to end up in hospital regardless with or without the vacinne.

    With the vaccine hopefully they have less severe symptoms.

    The below are the numbers for the 17/18 flu season with 4700 in hospital, 190 in ICU and 255 deaths.

    We can't protect everyone unfortunately.


    I still believe the 5,000 deaths are miscalculated for Covid with people who died from Covid or died with Covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    One day is not a trend. 3 days is a trend, but it's too short to make any longer predictions. On first glance, hospital numbers appear to have stabilised, but you need to have been through a full 7-day cycle because the discharges and admissions themselves peak and trough over the course of the week.

    35% of the whole population are not vaccinated, but there are just four covid-positive children in hospitals. So for the purposes of determining the vaccinated population, we need to exclude the under-18s. Which is kind of hard now. So at best guess, somewhere between 75% and 85% of the adult population are now fully vaccinated. Which means that around 20% of the adult population are not vaccinated, yet represent 52% of the hospital admissions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    "Being treated" for symptoms just means that they have symptoms tbh

    Thats why the other part of that statement was 11% were asymptomatic. They will treat everyone, even if they dont "need" treatment. If you have any symptoms and are in hospital (for other reasons) you will get "treatment".

    Incredibly dishonest reporting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    It's already clear?

    95% efficacy at preventing infection and 99% preventing hospilisation vaccine for 3,100,000 people

    3,100,000/95/99 = 1,550 max that can go to hospital if we assume vaccine lasts 12 months that's 1550/365 = 4 people a day

    Assume its last 6 months and that's 8 people a day ( 1550/182) that can go to hospital and that's assuming an attack rate of 100% and all 3,100,000 came infront of the virus

    These vaccine's are not 95% efficacous at preventing symptomatic infection and 99% prevent hospilisation with the admissions we are seeing, no where near it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983



    Yeah my thinking also but I am certainly no expert….I suppose you still need for it travelling, but no really point in asking bars, etc to do work in 3/4 weeks when we might have like 92/93% fully vaccinated…



  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Lyle


    Just in terms of age in hospitals, its vague but this is all they gave:

    Hospitalised Cases

    63% 50+

    31% 19-49

    6% 0-18


    ICU Cases

    58% 50+

    42% 19-49



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    You can't state that without knowing a more detailed breakdown, specifically age ranges. It's a population estimate based on cases the past few weeks being mainly in the 45 and under age range. It takes time for covid to spread into older age groups. Just because based on 1000 cases in the 0-45 age group and half are vaccinated and half are unvaccinated we end up with X and Y hospitalized, does not mean the same rates would apply in 500 vaccinated people aged 65 and over (figures made up, just to give an example) And it's only now that the incidence rate in those aged 65+ is rising.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    @godzilla1989 wrote:

    3,100,000/95/99 = 1,550 max that can go to hospital if we assume vaccine lasts 12 months that's 1550/365 = 4 people a day

    The 95% efficacy rate was based on attack rates over 3 months. So you want to divide by 91 instead of 365. Gives 17 people a day.

    Indeed, those values were also calculated on older variants with lower attack rates. Efficacy against Delta is believed to be more like 88% with attack rates in household settings of ~50%. If you take a 50% attack rate and 3 months, then you have a ceiling of about 186,000 vaccinated people who could develop symptoms. Or about 2,000/day.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Agree with that 91, good observation

    That's 2,000 a day with symptoms,but with 99% protection from hospitalisation

    That's 2,000/99 = 20 a day in hospital

    Pandemic should be over if that was true

    Even our HSE can handle 20 a day :)

    We probably get 20 admissions day to sober out



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  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Lyle


    Outbreak info slide here from HSE



    Those nursing home numbers aren't great.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Was the 3 months down to how long it took to get X amount of positive cases in the trial or just a fixed time? You would have to imagine if cases were lower during the trial compared to now, it wouldn't take 3 months to achieve the required number of infections.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Also that 186,000 is wrong it should be 93,000

    3,100,000/88 = 372,000/4 ( 3 months ) = 93,000, you divided by 2 for 6 months to get 186,000?

    So only 93,000 possible people can be infected

    1,000 a day and with 99% protection from hospitlisation, that's only 10 a day in hospital



  • Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    The 62% of totally unvaccinated people in ICU they are coming from a small pool of the population. There are less than 10% of adults totally unvaccinated, so that is 376k people.

    Out of these 376k people, how many people left can go in ICU ? There is probably a high number of them that already had covid and built a partial immunity, some of them will never get more than mild symptoms... Do you think that the pool is big enough so that the numbers can continue growing or is it possible that all the easy targets (unvaccinated + underlying conditions + a lot of contacts) have already been infected and gone to ICU and that the vaccine will slow down naturally in this group ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    They all wear masks, PPE etc in there

    Schools are low though

    Wait till they open, disaster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    By the look of things, Electric picnic is not going ahead in 2022 either alone with Dublin marathon. Joke of a country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The outbreaks range from 2-47, so one pretty big one

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19outbreaksclustersinireland/COVID-19%20Interim%20Weekly%20Outbreak%20Report_Week32_2021_17082021_V1.0.pdf

    With over 500k pfizer doses having being delivered this week and Nursing home residents very close to 8 months post second dose, one would think now is the time to just go in and get them all done pronto!



  • Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭revelman


    To be fair, I don’t think it is as straightforward as that. People can be in ICU for many weeks, if not months. We would need to know how long people have been in ICU. They could have caught Covid several weeks or months ago before they were entitled to a vaccination.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Focussing on the size of the pool of unvaccinated vs number in ICU is missing the point. Saying "vaccines are x% effective" is also missing the point. The fact is that, even though vaccines do reduce the likelihood of symptoms upon infection (and you should get it if you're an at-risk person), they do not prevent infection adequately overall. It is unknown if they prevent death in people who do become symptomatic (even though this meme is trotted out in media every day). Most importantly, the effectiveness of vaccination wanes quite quickly.

    Here is some very good data released this week that analyses effectiveness during the Delta period vs before, from UK: finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf (ox.ac.uk)

    Figure S4 on page 29 shows the way in which efficacy decreases, by age group. E.g. in the 35-64 age group, 75 days after 2nd dose of AZ, it's not effective at all. Vaccines are extremely effective in people who were infected at some point prior to vaccination. Extrapolating each trend line forward does not show promise for any vaccine. It's even worse when you consider that these odds ratios are based on symptomatic cases.

    As such, infections will continue and vaccinated people will continue to have severe outcomes. And this is with restrictions still in place! The only solution is to stop focusing on total vaccination, as this wont work. Booster shots should be prioritised, and given to at-risk people only, and all restrictions removed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭Allinall




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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Based on anything in particular, or just your feeling



  • Registered Users Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    It depends on your definition of "adequately". It is reducing infection enough if it guarantees that we don't have exponential increases and that the numbers in hospitals don't go in the thousands. This is why I am mentioning the size of the pool. If your pool is small enough that it is unlikely to have more than 200 people in ICU at the same time, then we can live with it and get back to our lives.

    For a year, we have been putting restrictions to avoid exponential increases that would lead to saturation of the health system in a few weeks. We are beyond that, the pool is small, the increase speed is manageable. What is the new goal of restrictions ? Keeping numbers in ICU under 70 ? under 100 ? Why ?

    As a society, if everybody has a vaccine 50% efficient, it is enough to keep things under control. I was reading that the AZ protection goes down from 68% to 61% after several months: that is not a big issue. Don't believe that your hepatitis vaccines are as effective years after you did them as 2 weeks after. But it is good enough to protect the society.

    As an individual, if you want to have more protection, get a booster, especially if you are vulnerable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Will Patrick day parades go ahead I wonder?

    Utter disaster if they don't



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭Allinall


    I heard the 16th January has also been cancelled.


    Going straight from the 15th to 17th.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The 17th January will be Blue Monday so that should be cancelled anyway!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Oh we can paste photos in new boards.ie :)

    I'm basing "adequate" on overall effectiveness, and particularly the increased risk of symptomatic cases x days post vaccination, particularly for more at-risk age groups (from the paper above)



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    Based on my feelings and disappointment with Irish inept gov!



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    No, it is a super-spreader event. Unless Varadkar or MM attends it in person, then AG can justify it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,033 ✭✭✭Ficheall



    You know things are bad when you have to make things up to complain about.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 82,341 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    1818 new cases, 52 in ICU.



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