Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Some old news, from May 2021. Only now see it myself

"The Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe TD, will bring a Financial Resolution to the Dáil tomorrow (Wednesday) evening, which will impose a stamp duty charge of 10% on the multiple purchase of 10 or more residential houses"

If I get it right, Funds/Reits are basically out from the "House" market, and only viable option is Apartments. I remember I saw someone posting that Funds buying developments of "Houses", I'm curious if it happened any case after the announcement of Stamp Duty.

Didnt stop DCC buying up 3 entire apartment blocks in Cherrywood the other day.

Perinternet having city offices to bring the workforce together made sense. But early adaptors have being subcontracting for Irish companies while living abroad for years now. Management culture can stagnate until an external shock forces change, and the pandemic has revealed massive cost savings that's shaking up the entire corporate landscape.

The internet has become mainstreet for shopping and downtown for business.

From the few team gigs I've done that required 9-5 presenteeism my entire workload could be completed in a few hours and the rest of the time was merely looking busy.

A lot of London offices look like they may never be re-occupied again as they don't meet the new energy rules.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/10percent-london-offices-at-risk-of-becoming-obsolete-under-new-energy-rules.html

It seems so at least for the new builds, not sure about second hand apartments.

The Shoreline Partnership is owned by Avestus, which has directors with some dubious NAMA dealings, as highlighted by Mick Wallace under privilege in 2018; but I'm sure this Baldoyle apartment deal represents a good deal for the State and in no way did the institutional investors have any involvement in shaping the policies which have lead to the State purchasing properties from these same institutional investors.

The bubble is already here and this is exactly the type of survey which backs up my current position that feelings have trumped data and fundamentals among the property market participants. Buyers want to buy now to avoid missing out on higher prices and sellers think they could hold off another couple years, especially if it seems like prices will keep rising. Like inflation, price rises are then self-fulfilling. It would appear that, right now, "no one can see it coming" (it being prices falling).

3 miracles in a row.

Some people believe in miracles.

You have that backwards; supply needs to follow demand.

This really is not true.

You've convinced yourself it is as a potential future buyer.

Logic by some convinced crashers in here.

If people think the property prices will fall, like in 2020. That means Crash is coming.

If people think opposite like in the recent article. That means Crash is coming.

Any house I bid on in recent years (and I bid on a lot), while I may have been bidding against the Government, I was also bidding against a lot of FTBs, just like me. So even removing the Government from the market, there is still very strong demand for housing. And its a demand that far outstrips supply. While it is a player, I don't believe the Government is propping up the housing market.

I think the market is stabilizing price wise. Supply is the issue. Because of income multiple limits set by the Central Bank builders have found resistance to price increases. It's the same down the country and is slightly noticeable in one off builds. Builders were pricing with increased labour and material costs and are finding that people planning to build cannot afford it.

In the first half of the year all the exemptions to the income multiples were used up. This I believe was as much of an issue in price increases as savings and extra funds from parents. At the end of the year the reducing of the tax back from 10-5% will prevent any increases prices. If the market stabilises the panic to buy should slow down and stabilise the market further

yes the HTB tax relief is being reset in December to 5%

Firstly, if that was the case then you would also claim that Celtic Tiger prices/rents were not bubble prices/rents.

Quite simply, strip away QE, low interest rates and State sponsored rentals (approximately one third of rentals in the State receive some form of State assistance is the recent statistic in the media) and the housing market would falter or even crash. Even just extracting half of the current State-sponsored tenants in the private market and putting them in State-built and owned housing would have a noticeable impact.

However, the main point is that, if everything was so stable in the economy and the housing market, why is there such a gigantic QE programme and sustained low interest rate environment as well as the State needing to go in and buy up/take on the entire leasehold of developments in direct competition with individual buyers? We have had low levels of unemployment for years and consistent, strong GDP, so why is the State helping so many people to put a roof over their head and why are QE and low interest rates still necessary? Our economic prosperity of the 10s is almost a con and I feel strongly about that, that is like in the soviet union or 1984 where the serfs are told they have never had it so good. As such, the only way for property to remain as expensive as it is (rents in particular, but the bubble which arose in the rental market has also spilled into the purchasing market), is for the State to prop the whole thing up with continued supports.

Importantly, we are not out of the covid dead-cat bounce/euphoria as of yet and will not be for some time. So of course so long as the music is playing and the State/central banks are throwing money at the problems, there is less likely to be a crash. As such, we need to see the last of the covid supports withdrawn and restrictions eased before a fallout or a correction will occur. The latest guidance would indicate that we will still have some form of restrictions until spring 2022 so I don't think things will change other than to maybe get a bit worse before then.

That's not even to touch on some other things like the impact of Housing For All which may result in the delivery of 30000+ homes per year from the next couple of years onwards; SF/Labour/PBP government in 4 years and the impact this would have on the property market (I would suspect plenty of sellers will fear a drop in their home values so may look to sell before SF do damage to the market); necessity for increased property taxes; increases in interest rates (e.g. to combat inflation); Brexit; the predictions for tougher growth conditions for the big tech employers in the State; or even the impact of losing the €2bn in corporate tax per year (together with the accompanying loss in employment taxes and demand for rentals which would follow the corporate tax losses).