Looking to move... WTF is going on with prices?

Yes prices are tight right now. Whatever city or country you went to. Everything is as expensive as possible. There is a dream of moving to a better place. But it's worth saving up. In the meantime I'm just sitting here. I can only dream alas.

The current market is more desperation than exuberance. My point stands, there has only been one meaningful property crash in Ireland, they are not frequent 7 yearly events and most people will only see one in their lifetime. Their rarity makes it madness to put off buying while hoping and waiting for the next one.

There has only been 1 crash,

well prices actually dropped in 2001 as the government implemented policies recommended by the bacon report.

house prices had been rising rapidly since the early nineties when bacon was asked for recommendations

when his recommendations were carried out prices slowed and actually fell back in 2001

remember the nineties was the advent of the Celtic tiger when you had real growth and people had access to

money they never had before.

ah but that was no good, we couldn’t have reasonable house prices could we

so the government changed tack and reversed all his recommendations

prices started to rise, then mass immigration from 2004 and you have a perfect storm.

but nobody thought it would end, i said the same things then I am saying now and people

like you had the same theories which all amounted to, it’s different this time..

you could buy a house for 14k in north strand in 1995.

why are those same houses now 350k.

Bought my house in H1 2019, got a valuation last month as we're changing mortgage, the valuation we got is 20% above what we paid and the valuer told us that was a conservative estimate for the bank and she'd expect it to get another 10% on top of that if we sold. So a potential 30% price increase in just over two years. This is in D7.

This is obviously fine for me as my LTV has improved massively just from us doing nothing, but it is completely fucked really in terms of the housing market. I would have zero chance of buying this house if we were looking to buy now, it would be way out of our price range. All the serial objectors are doing me a great service.

North Dublin.

simple, they didnt have the means or the access to credit, and there s the rub, you can have all the demand in the world but if people cant get credit they cant buy, you can only defy reality for so long, people who were buying up to the crash should nver have been given the credit they got but he banks gave them it, only when that dried up did the crash happen,when people started to notice, oh that gilt edged asset is no longer going up in value, then the herd turns the other way and nothing will stop them

I think I see what you are getting at.

You say you know it should really only cost 50k for the extension and the builder or labourer also know this.

But some people are willing to pay 150k for a similar job, so of course that has become the current price.

But in reality it could be done for 50k.

That seems to be what you have said?

So basically it's just another rip off yes?

And I suppose I don't blame builders for making hay while the sun shines

We have been trying to purchase 14mths, had new build but pulled out due to sewage waste treatment plant which was undisclosed until solicitor pack. Rent increased in that time after covid restrictions lifted. Then faced with landlord selling up. We viewed a new rental to try and hold out but there was so much interest we didn't even get a callback. Anyway, we placed our names on EVERY single new build in commuter zone to Dublin. I am not joking the releases were sold in minutes, Maynooth, Dunshaughlin, Dunboyne, Barnhall leixlip on & on, you have an email the day of notification to register and upload details to portal or try desperately to bag 'a viewing', we have possibly been unlucky but I'm checking everyday for updates on releases & fairly diligent. We are on so many cancellation lists I've lost count. While we are ftb, we are in our 40s & have been stuck in rental hell. So to say it's been stressful and difficult feels like an understatement. We got a call Friday for Mullenpark, you know the REIT controversy and placed deposit after viewing on Sat. Every single person confirmed on the day and EA has said she has extensive waiting list for our house type. These are not a cheap house. However, it's affordable for us and while we have large deposit our mortgage is still 3.5. For us it's a no brainer to pay off a mortgage, renting for another 3 years = 70k or until some magic market correct happens buying is rolling dice on a significant price correction. I do however believe ftb have reached a limit on what they can afford on new builds. Interestingly while our type sold out and has waiting list the 4bed, 465k 2 were still available today.

I'm sure the EAs are plenty busy but this situation is not their fault or their doing.

For the last 2 years, paying almost €2000 in rent per month as a family with 2 kids. The amount approved from the bank to buy a house is ridiculous. With the property bubble at least you could borrow more then what you can today. Forcing people to rent instead of buying is not the right approach.

I own property in North Strand and I can assure you couldn't buy a house there for 14k in 1995. If you could I would have bought quite a few and would have not had a mortgage on the property. If I recall correctly it was worth £120k then.

The exuberance in the 300k - 450k market has definitely subsided especially in commuter towns. Huge number of new builds going up too. Naas / Newbridge / Kildare Town have in excess of 2,000 homes under construction or about to start construction.

Celbridge, leixlip, Maynooth have similar numbers.

Developers are now getting bookings and contracts signed man months before expected completion.

In Dublin itself, the share price boom of tech companies is playing a big part. Facebook, Google, Amazon, Paypal, Microsoft are just a small few of the many tech companies that give share options. Shares have soared. You pay your 30% capital gains tax on the shares that have vested and the rest is there for spending. Some long term average workers have had gains of €500,000+ after tax, senior employees will have more.

So if the house is in a particular area, walking distance to certain schools and amenities, it will get a premium to its value.

But ordinary everyday houses, prices are definitely plateauing and market is seeing the heat come off. I can't see any fall of note coming as interest rates are going nowhere and currently on a 30 year term, €100,000 is costing under €400 a month and can be fixed at that level for 10+ years. (300k = under €1200, 400k = under €1600)

Worth clarifying that for RSUs (which is most common now I think) shares are taxed at 52% upon vesting. The 30% CGT applies to any gains made on shares between the time they vest and the time they're sold.

I think a crash in apartment prices in inevitable, you have pension funds buying buildings here. They buy a building and get a good deal. Then rent out a few of the apartments for an over inflated rent privately or to a housing body. Then revalue all the apartments for 15 times rental income and show a growth in values of 10 or more percent without disclosing the empties

If we have a SF government which is almost certain and they put a stop to it then they will see no point hanging on them and start to sell them, causing a glut and a crash which could bring down house prices too given that they are also buying blocks of house in estates. The problem is for Irish bank if you lend to a FTB who buys a new build without knowing that a large part of it is going to be used for social housing. One bad egg causes misery and they end up handing over the keys added to a price crash you have a perfect storm caused by our last two governments distorting the market.  

If you want to fix the Irish property market, force investment funds to stop holding on to empty units. Change the rules to be more like Scotland and France where property is sold for offers up to the asking if you offer the asking the seller has to accept it and cannot sell to somebody else. Equally you have to buy it.