Football ranking table

Fr Tod Umptious · 22-08-2021 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117787382#Comment_117787382

That's the great thing about this model.

You can look at any part of the table at any point in time and say "yea that looks about right".

laoisman11 · 24-08-2021 8:51pm

Testing out the new site, so apparently we can directly upload images and upload PDFs..........

If I get time, I will do a detailed prediction model output before Saturday afternoon!

HBC08 · 24-08-2021 8:58pm

Wow,just found this thread for the first time,it's class and thank you laoisman for keeping it going.

Charles Babbage · 24-08-2021 11:03pm

While I would have expected Armagh and Monaghan to have swapped places since the previous published table (02/07) Armagh seems to have dropped a lot considering that they were beaten by 2 points by a team one place below them, which is not a dramatic result. It is hard to see what Cork did lately that causes them to end up above a team that managed to stay in Div 1.

Hammer Archer · 25-08-2021 10:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117799736#Comment_117799736

Looks like Monaghan gained 3.42 point from beating Armagh while the latter lost the same amount. Cork didn't do anything, just didn't lose anything from their beating to Kerry as Kerry were so far ahead of them in the rankings. Dublin lost 4.30 points to Mayo while Donegal lost 4.32 to Tyrone in that loss.

Any loss of points for teams around 6th - 14th seems to result in a big change in the rankings due to the teams being so close points-wise.

Charles Babbage · 25-08-2021 10:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800813#Comment_117800813

This is great work by Laoisman and with knockout in different provinces you will have some complex situations. As you say, from Armagh to Galway on the table is only the result of one game, which might be only one kick of the ball.

yop · 25-08-2021 10:51am

The last time before 2004 that Mayo were top of the Laoisman table was 1951... :D

Great work as always Laoisman.

Blackjack · 25-08-2021 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800912#Comment_117800912

I don't believe it is just the result of one game. My understanding of the scores is that it's based on actual results vs expected results, with the expected results being calculated based on recent history of the teams, whether the team is playing at home or not etc.

E.g. if a team is expected to win by 8 points and loses by 2, then the score attributed to that game is going to be a larger negative to the losing team and a larger positive to the winning team.

Charles Babbage · 25-08-2021 10:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117801006#Comment_117801006

The scale of the movement is based on the relative position of the teams. But even two teams one place apart on the table can move to this extent by playing one game.

Many in the Armagh to Galway group would have been contenders in quarter finals in a normal year, which would have sorted them out.

blowitupref · 26-08-2021 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117782725#Comment_117782725

Cork are basically 10th for that fluky result against Kerry last winter.

laoisman11 · 27-08-2021 8:36pm

Ok, let's see if this works............

https://rpubs.com/laoisman/802653

laoisman11 · 27-08-2021 8:49pm

Looks like it's accessible, let me know if anyone has problems connecting to it.

I maybe should have introduced the previous post, it is a link towards the full prediction model output for tomorrow's All-Ireland semi-final.

The main signals that I pick up are:

3 of Kerry's last 4 games have been won by 12, 6 and 15 points more than expected
Tyrone's form seems to be more erratic, from good wins over Donegal and Cavan to wipe-outs against Kerry and Galway in 2020
We have to go back to 2008 for a Tyrone win over Kerry in the championship and the last 2 SFC meetings have gone pretty much as predicted
The score vs rating difference correlation is actually a negative slope - i.e. when Kerry were rated very highly against Tyrone, they actually lost, and vice versa

TLDR; Kerry by 1.7

laoisman11 · 27-08-2021 9:00pm

And if anyone has any ideas for making this output more colourful, or with different visual ways of presenting the data, please let me know - it should be easier to do in this html format. All ideas welcome !

laoisman11 · 01-09-2021 7:58pm

No major surprise to see a switch of rankings between Kerry and Tyrone after a great Tyrone win.

Really looking forward to this final, there is a huge novelty factor attached, even if both teams have quite recent final day experience.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating

1|=|Mayo|109.70|0.00

2|=|Dublin|107.58|0.00

3|▲1|Tyrone|106.50|3.25

4|▼-1|Kerry|101.23|-3.25

5|=|Donegal|93.40|0.00

6|=|Galway|92.84|0.00

7|=|Monaghan|92.56|0.00

8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00

9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00

10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

11|=|Armagh|89.25|0.00

12|=|Cavan|85.32|0.00

13|=|Derry|85.25|0.00

14|=|Roscommon|85.01|0.00

15|=|Down|82.93|0.00

16|=|Clare|82.33|0.00

17|=|Westmeath|80.86|0.00

18|=|Offaly|78.50|0.00

19|=|Longford|76.71|0.00

20|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00

21|=|Laois|72.46|0.00

22|=|Limerick|72.10|0.00

23|=|Antrim|72.05|0.00

24|=|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00

25|=|Louth|68.39|0.00

26|=|Wexford|65.63|0.00

27|=|Wicklow|64.12|0.00

28|=|Carlow|63.34|0.00

29|=|Leitrim|62.00|0.00

30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00

31|=|New York|58.08|0.00

32|=|Waterford|57.60|0.00

33|=|London|50.93|0.00

laoisman11 · 07-09-2021 9:48pm

The countdown is on........

Mayo appear to have been made favourites by the bookies, and now they have to deal with this strange situation where they are not underdogs and are expected to perform. I recall one of the Laois selectors being interviewed before the 2003 Leinster final; the reporter asked if the favourites tag would be a hindrance. He replied that Laois were underdogs in the previous God-knows how many finals we had lost, and being underdogs definitely didn't help, so he would take being favourites for one day. And what a day that was :-)

The link to the prediction model output is below, the main points that I can draw are:

Mayo's form has been consistently 3 to 5 points better than predicted in 6 of their 8 games this year (and the other 2 games they won)
Compared to Mayo's numerous 10-point winning margins over the last 2 years, Tyrone's wins have been more modest, with the 8-point victory over Cavan in the Ulster quarter-final being their maximum winning margin over the previous 20 games
Recent games between the 2 teams have been wildly sporadic; Mayo appeared to hold the upper-hand during the 2004-2010 period

tl;dr Mayo by 1.8

https://rpubs.com/laoisman/806194

Fiyatoe · 13-09-2021 7:08pm

Return us to our rightful perch Laois man ⚪️🔴🇦🇹 #TY-SAM-21

laoisman11 · 13-09-2021 8:21pm

Not since July 2010 have Tyrone been number 1 in the rankings, and here they are after an outstanding year!

A first Ulster title since 2017 and a first All-Ireland since 2008.

I will do up an end-of-year review over the coming weeks after the dust settles. Congrats to Tyrone, hard luck to Mayo, ye will be back, ye know no different.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating

1|▲2|Tyrone|110.14|3.64

2|=|Dublin|107.58|0.00

3|▼-2|Mayo|106.06|-3.64

4|=|Kerry|101.23|0.00

5|=|Donegal|93.40|0.00

6|=|Galway|92.84|0.00

7|=|Monaghan|92.56|0.00

8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00

9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00

10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

11|=|Armagh|89.25|0.00

12|=|Cavan|85.32|0.00

13|=|Derry|85.25|0.00

14|=|Roscommon|85.01|0.00

15|=|Down|82.93|0.00

16|=|Clare|82.33|0.00

17|=|Westmeath|80.86|0.00

18|=|Offaly|78.50|0.00

19|=|Longford|76.71|0.00

20|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00

21|=|Laois|72.46|0.00

22|=|Limerick|72.10|0.00

23|=|Antrim|72.05|0.00

24|=|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00

25|=|Louth|68.39|0.00

26|=|Wexford|65.63|0.00

27|=|Wicklow|64.12|0.00

28|=|Carlow|63.34|0.00

29|=|Leitrim|62.00|0.00

30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00

31|=|New York|58.08|0.00

32|=|Waterford|57.60|0.00

33|=|London|50.93|0.00

BonnieSituation · 14-09-2021 9:17pm

Great work as always Laoisman.

Manzoor14 · 15-09-2021 8:46am

Seconded. Really enjoy this thread and appreciate the time you put into it.

laoisman11 · 24-10-2021 1:25pm

I finally got around to doing the end of year review........

Winners

Tyrone - no surprise to see them at the top of the list following their All-Ireland win. They gained 13.38 rating points and moved up 4 ranking places to the summit
Promotion from Division 2 and a Leinster final appearance resulted in Kildare increasing their worth by 7.77 rating points and 7 ranking places
The only team to win a Divisional final in 2021, Derry pushed Donegal all the way in Ulster and will be hoping for more improvements in 2022. They increased their stock by 7.56 rating points and move up 6 ranking places
Honorable mentions to Offaly and Monaghan who both gained more than 5 rating points compared to the end of last year

Losers

It gives me no pleasure to document it, but Laois's abysmal record in 2021 (played 5, lost 5 and all lost by 7 points or more) sees them give up 13.3 rating points and plunge 8 places in the rankings
From Ulster champions to relegation to Division 4, 2021 will be a year to forget for Cavan; 11.29 rating points lost and a drop of 6 ranking places
Mimicking the Ulster champions, the Munster champions of 2020 Tipperary had a surprisingly similar year, losing 8 rating points and 6 ranking places
Honorable mentions to Leitrim, Roscommon, Wicklow and Dublin, who all lost more than 5 rating points

laoisman11 · 25-01-2022 9:59pm

And we're off again, on swings and roundabouts........

I normally do up a preview of the leagues based on a team's rating points, but that has become a little complicated with the recent updates to the site.

I've also changed the formatting of the prediction model output to an image file instead of an embedded table; over the next few weeks, I might figure out how to reduce the text size in the image!

dr.kenneth noisewater · 26-01-2022 9:20am

Is there a league predictions thread this year?

laoisman11 · 26-01-2022 10:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118533816#Comment_118533816

I don't have time to run it unfortunately. Anyone else interested?

laoisman11 · 31-01-2022 10:51pm

Not sure how this formatting is going to turn out........

The top 4 all lost rating points this weekend, with Dublin losing the most of any team across the table. In doing so, Dublin drop back to 3rd, where they have not been since August 2015!
Another notable win was Limerick's big victory over Longford - after a relatively successful 2021, Limerick are now at their highest ranking since June 2013
Carlow's loss at home to London brings them back to 30th, a rank last visited in June 2016

laoisman11 · 02-02-2022 9:28pm

Prediction model output for Round 2 of the 2022 NFL:

laoisman11 · 08-02-2022 11:13pm

Surprise, surprise! Mayo move back to the top of the ranking table after a combination of their win over Monaghan and Tyrone's shock bonus-point defeat at the hands of Armagh
Armagh and Leitrim were the big winners, each gaining more than 4 rating points
Armagh at their highest since August 2014 and Dublin at their lowest since March 2015

beggars_bush · 08-02-2022 11:16pm

Roscommon up 4 places in two weeks

Impressive

Charles Babbage · 09-02-2022 4:17pm

Game predictions based on longer term performance are not so accurate in the first weeks of league, when teams have improved or are taking it easy.

However, the rankings are not too far off the league divisions, Galway are in 7th place but they were in Div 1 last year and likely will be next year. Cavan are higher than their league position, but they are definitely a bit of an outlier in Div 4.

Donegal v Armagh in the Ulster championship will presumably push one close to the top teams and one back down somewhat, but there is back door this year to recover lost ground.

laoisman11 · 09-02-2022 5:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118606157#Comment_118606157

Fully agree on the predictions at the start of the league, especially for teams that went far in the preceding championship. There may be an element of "over-valuation" for these teams (the rating model is set up so that the All-Ireland winning team finishes the year as number 1). And the rating model influences the prediction model.

Charles Babbage · 09-02-2022 6:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118606693#Comment_118606693

The rating model may reflect the overall 2022 prospects for the team and may be fair enough in the medium term, but there is a cold start phenomenon.

Great job generally, you can't have everything unless you make the prediction model seasonal.

Football ranking table

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