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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,210 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    UK study reported today looking at the declining efficacy of the jabs concluding that efficacy for the elderly, who had their jabs earlier, will be at or below 50% by Christmas. I think that this saga has a way to run yet, and question is whether governments will hold their nerve and continue with minimal restrictions when case rates and deaths inevitably jump over the winter and into next year



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,251 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    The 50% you've referenced will make the headlines but that's listed as the "worst case scenario"

    "Prof Spector continued: "Waning protection is to be expected and is not a reason to not get vaccinated.

    "Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the Delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated."

    With boosters to probably end up like a regular flu vaccine then I wouldn't see why they wouldn't hold their nerve, you either live with it or you don't



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It would be interesting to conduct a poll - who believes the vaccine passport system is temporary / permanent. The developments in Israel re vaccine pass are concerning in my opinion .

    Like the boosters the question is whether we should have such measures permanently. COVID will still be with us and needing to rely on pharmacological means is no way to live with a disease. Boosters IMO should be very clearly targeted on those who really need them. There is no argument at present, for us anyway, to line up everyone over a certain age for a booster. Apart from the continued infrastructure required it's likely to be a waste of vaccines on the healthy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    What we have learnt during this is that the health system will take something nuclear to collapse. It might become more dysfunctional under the pressure but it will survive.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I agree with you all. We have to just run with it, whatever vaccine efficacy. But I have a bad feeling that this is not over from a public health and restrictions perspective. Especially international travel



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It still ultimately all comes down to the "what then" question you ask of any action.

    --------

    We lock down. What then? We suppress the virus and live with it.

    That doesn't work. What then?

    We lock down again. What then? We wait for vaccines and we roll them out. What then? We reopen.

    --------

    If that doesn't work, and we ask "what then", the only option is is to remain open and keep going.

    There is no "we lock down until we roll out boosters" option, because if you ask "what then", you get into an endless loop of lockdowns and boosters.

    Even waning after six moths, the level of protection afforded by the original two doses is more than enough to protect the vast majority of the population. Vulnerable groups are still protected, just less so. Which means we can roll out boosters to the older/vulnerable groups without having to implement any new restrictions or maintain the mandatory basis of others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,475 ✭✭✭tigger123


    I'm only realising after hearing on radio 1 this morning: no vaccine checks, and no masks indoors at the GAA match on Sunday. What the actual f*ck? How is this allowed when other sectors are still under restrictions?

    I had assumed that as it was a seated event, Croke Park were going to use seats as buffers in between people. I would have also assumed that vaccine certs were mandatory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    To keep FF voters happy, thats what.

    If they realised they would have to bring vaccine passes and mask up there would be outrage when 40k people realise how burdensome all this really is.

    Best tactic is to hide it for the most part, and bring it in slowly. Boiling frog comes to mind.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,361 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    If that's the case why did the country with the youngest age profile in Europe suffer the longest severest suppression measures?

    Cancelling thousands of procedures and screenings for months is a collapse IMO, it just wont be evident immediately



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The honest answer to the GAA question is that the permitted crowd numbers are written in the emergency legislation, and so reducing the numbers now (or allowing larger gigs), would require recalling the Dail and making TDs do some work. Likewise mandating vaccine checks would require changes to the legislation.

    So they won't do it.

    Wouldn't be overly concerned about the mask or vaccine thing with Croke Park. It's entirely open. The only indoor areas are for private events and VIP ticket holders; were/are they even open?

    The huge disparity between sports and other outdoors activities though is going to be something they'll be punished for. It was a pretty big oversight to not build in a more flexible mechanism for proscribing the permitted numbers at gigs. At the moment it's actually written in the bills. They should have set it up so that the relevant minister over an area had the power to issue or revoke special licences, or something like that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,361 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Exactly, so as many of us said we should have followed Europe's reopening plan last May.

    When the most vulnerable were vaccinated was when we should have re-opened.

    Otherwise using the current metrics to justify restriction its a loop of lockdowns/restrictions for additional booster.

    I'm sure the Pareto principle applied to vaccinations just like it applies to everything else



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The most vulnerable were not fully vaccinated until mid-late July. "Europe" did not have a single unified reopening plan in May, and it would have been ill-advised to just blindly follow the path of others, given our unique geopolitical situation.

    In the vast majority of cases, "reopening" consisted of vaccine certs and/or recent tests. Which is a path we didn't want to go down. In hindsight sticking doggedly to that was a mistake, but given how many people are still whinging about vaccine certs and indoor dining, you can imagine the shitstorm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,475 ✭✭✭tigger123


    The big argument for not allowing communions/christenings/weddings/funerals/whatever has been that its not the event that is necessarily the problem, its the congregating before and afterwards.

    The videos going around Twitter on Sunday and Monday showed throngs of people, cheek by jowl, day-drinking on the streets. And more power to them.

    I'm not anti-restriction by any measure (I think we all have to do what we can), but they got this spectacularly wrong. And it's kind of infuriating that restrictions are applying to some/most things, but the summer days out in Croker are tickety boo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,475 ✭✭✭tigger123


    There's also zero excuse for not having vaccine checks or masks at the matches. That's a no-brainer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Why ? Nearly every adult in our country is vaccinated anyway .



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The GAA are a poeerful force in this country, their honchos are present in every parish in the country.

    Where is Micheal Martin today, I know he is on holidays officially but his position as elected leader of this country has been seriously undermined,this is very bad for democracy.

    The Government meed to grow a pair now or others will step into their place, we need political leaders to lead and to be seen to be leading.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I agree entirely, and for everyone over the past 18 months who complained, "Well why can't we have matches outside where it's safe", these scenes illustrated exactly the problem. All of the naysayers who dismissed the congregating as a concern can now see exactly what happens.

    Like I say, fundamentally the problem here is not these scenes at the weekend. They're actually fine at this stage in the pandemic. The problem is how far behind reality the government legislation is. I said it at the time; they should never have taken their recess. In the middle of a pandemic, at a crucial stage in our reopening plan, and they all **** off on holidays.

    They pegged weeks in advance to permit the GAA to have large crowds, but ignored the fact that this is bread-and-butter for the GAA, who can spin up a massive sporting event within a week. Other outdoor events need weeks, if not months to get everything in place and so can't be left at the mercy of the Government only deciding whether their event is feasible with a couple of weeks' notice.

    Relevant ministers should have had the powers to licence events. That would open up a new avenue of complaining about favouritism, but at least there would be scope for it.

    Vaccine checks at matches are not covered by the legislation. The GAA could choose to do it, but why would they? Would any event organiser choose to do it if they didn't have to?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    This is where cost benefit analysis is critical. If a booster vaccine can reduce transmissibility and keep things open then it may not be such a waste. Saying that I fully appreciate the WHO position on trying to ensure developing economies also receive vaccines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    The GAA is almost running this country.

    Not a PCR test, recovery cert or a vaccine cert needed to be in a crowd of 40k people, not to mention masks or social distancing...meanwhile I need to show my qr cert to have a coffee inside the door of a practically empty coffee shop.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,475 ✭✭✭tigger123


    Because we're either using the vaccine certs as a means to hamper the spread of the disease or we're not.

    What you're asking is a question as to whether we should use certs or not. That's not what I'm talking about. They're being used at other places, so they should be used in Croke Park too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,361 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    What group's were not vaccinated until mid July?

    Most of those not vaccinated by early June were at a much reduced risk of severe disease, people in their 20's on immune suppressant drugs were vaccinated in May(certainly people in my area)

    Whats this about a sh#t storm over needing a negative Antigen test? Many countries provided testing free on a Friday for citizens to enjoy their weekend socialising. This of course helped reduce case numbers as many cases were identified that subsequently isolated.

    In Ireland we decide to restrict all access to those liberties to those who had availed of a limited resource, (vaccine) that's what the outrage was over



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    @FintanMcluskey wrote:

    What group's were not vaccinated until mid July?

    The Astrazeneca group (60-69) didn't achieve full vaccination status until mid July.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    The religious/purist position of NPHET on antigen testing is baffling.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well, maybe because its the right thing to do, eg, insist that only vaccinated people attend the matches.

    The real leader of the country has suggested this just as he did with indoor dining so why isnt the Government going slong with this suggestion, wouldnt it show the GAA was taking Delta seriously, why should this organisation and the drunken carry on that goes with it put schools and college return at risk.

    Maybe all GAA matches should be cancelled for six weeks, one of these matches and the aftermath caused outbreaks last christmas.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭gral6


    I'd rather GAA to run the country than group of academics from Nphet



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Really?

    What would become of those kids and adults in small towns and villages that don't like GAA sport? That'd be a great, well run country, full of exclusion.

    Not to mention not adhering to guidelines over the last 18 months!! Yeah, they'd do a great job🙄



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    I wasnt fully vaccinated until Mid June . Nor were my friends all in Cohort 5 ( 60-69 ) Four weeks later was mid July



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