2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Oneiric 3 · 25-08-2021 6:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117800718#Comment_117800718

You are talking about the collapse of a civilisation that was built on and is sustained by its reliance on fossil fuels.

But it won't be climate change that will lead to its collapse, but the psychopaths that run the show.

Banana Republic 1 · 25-08-2021 8:04pm

https://theconversation.com/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-extreme-weather-events-attribution-science-says-yes-for-some-heres-how-it-works-164941

..

Gaoth Laidir · 25-08-2021 11:24pm

This attribution lark is great craic. Pick a weather event, any weather event, and post an article.

Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing period frost in France

In our latest study, scientists from France, Germany, Netherlands, and the UK collaborated to examine whether and to what extent human-induced climate change had a part to play in the cold early April following a very warm March 2021 that led to large scale frost damages in grapevines and fruit trees in central France.

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

So there's an apparent advantage of climate change (an earlier start to the growing season) but wait, we must find something to counter it. Quick, anything.

Main findings

By analysing temperature observations and climate model simulations we found that without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April would have been even lower by approx. 1.2°C.

However, human-caused warming also affected the earlier occurrence of bud burst, characterized here by a growing-degree-day index value. This effect is stronger than the decrease in spring cold spells, thus exposing young leaves to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights.

Overall, we conclude that human-caused climate change made the 2021 event 20% to 120% more likely.

They state with such conviction that attribution studies are reliable and we should all take them seriously, yet they can't narrow down the range in increased likelihood to less than 20 - 120 %. The German flood study was worse, with a massive range of 20 - 900%!

But they leave the best finding til last.

In a climate with global warming of 2°C (compared to the present day level of global warming of about 1.2°C) growing-period frost events such as observed in 2021 are projected to further intensify by about 0.2°C to 0.5°C.

So a warmer world will make it colder. That's at odds with finding 1 above and this statement in the article...

We also looked at the change in intensity and frequency for the minimum April-July temperatures over the same region alone, finding that the event would have been even colder without human-caused climate change.

They kind of throw in the towel at the end and admit that the overall assessment is fairly woolly, with the models really not able to reproduce observations.

The differences between the changes in TNnGDD-indices simulated in the models and those calculated based on observations are large, we thus have confidence in the qualitative results but not the exact quantification.

Thargor · 26-08-2021 1:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117798616#Comment_117798616

Its not a "personal jab" to laugh at your screw-ups or when Akrasia calls out your lies and fake data. I dont know why he still bothers tbh. Go read the IPCC reports if you want to see actual "contributions", its been spoonfed to you and the lunatic ad nauseum at this stage, no point in going over it again, you just enjoy wasting peoples time. I see you've moved on to "Ive always said humans were the cause of global warming" this week though, thats progress I suppose.

Nabber · 26-08-2021 4:07am

Global warming alarmism is for narcissists.

Like all narcissists, the poor can be ignored, evident in here by the fact almost all reports of natural disasters are related to developed countries or uninhabited areas.

At least IPCC took a look

The entire continent is highly exposed to climate extremes, at a relatively high level of vulnerability, which amplifies the problems that the continent is experiencing, including poverty, limited infrastructure, conflicts and urbanization in development,"

Ah yes ideological, political and tribal conflicts are exacerbated by climate.

As I have stated before, human suffering is irrelevant to most alarmist unless they can tie it to global warming. In many cases attributing all weather related deaths to climate change unequivocally.

Questioning any apocalyptic prediction is the right thing to do.

Predicting human apocalypse is universally a human trait, part of many cultures across millenniums. Only difference is each time we are smarter and this ones for real ‘any day now’. Either history will look back on ‘Climate Apocalypse’ like all others as complete horse ****, or we will be dead according to Stephen ‘Akrasia’ King as people abandon their post.

Or what’s more realistic, people survive, and more likely poor countries get poorer, and those at risk suffer further exposures and those with resources are slightly inconvenienced.

A simple read back over the comments in here shows narcissism is rampant.

Nabber · 26-08-2021 4:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117799376#Comment_117799376

Yes much like Newtonian physics, Heliocentrism and many others.

All observed, all demonstrated. As tools and technology evolved so to did our understanding.

Cooling/levelling of period was not calculated into any models. The large attic melt was not predicted or understood. The list goes on. So much not understood, but enough is known that this will end humanity in a run away climate?

Consensus that the planet is warming. However consensus diminishes beyond that when it comes to impact and potential outcomes.

Orion402 · 26-08-2021 7:25am

What you call 'Newtonian Physics' is really an attempt to apply experimental projects on to the works of the first Sun-centred astronomers like Copernicus, Kepler and Galileo-

"Rule III. The qualities of bodies which are found to belong to all bodies within the reach of our experiments, are to be esteemed the universal qualities of all bodies whatsoever. " Newton

It amounts to a remarkable misadventure with timekeeping or the 'clockwork solar system' as it is known along with a lot of idiosyncratic linguistic gymnastics like absolute/relative time, space and motion.

"I do not define time, space, place, and motion, as being well known to all. Only I must observe, that vulgar people conceive those quantities under no other notions but from the relation they bear to sensible objects. And thence arise certain prejudices, for the removing of which it will be convenient to distinguish them into absolute and relative, true and apparent, mathematical and common. " Newton

[Newton's Scholium IV link goes here]

Unfortunately, many will attempt to make sense of it and become quickly lost, after all, that is the intent anyway before he moves on to the parasitic relationship experimental theorists maintain with solar system research and Earth sciences. People inherently know what time, space and motion are, so he is merely spinning his wheels and conjuring up notions that have no basis in experience.

The experimental theorists project of 'greenhouse earth' is just another application of Rule III or the 'scientific method' as it is now called where careful interpretation is sidelined and predictions are everything.

It isn't the hysterics and fuss generated by modelling climate as a topic, but the modelling subculture itself that comes within range of the pragmatic observer. That world is occupied by a firewall of cheerleaders surrounding what are fairly fickle and petty academics thereby creating a false choice of climate change/ climate change denial among followers of empirical or 'Rule III' modelling.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-08-2021 7:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804394#Comment_117804394

There's that pattern again. I post something technical that questions the hysteria and immediately in comes one of the hurlers on the ditch with the standard "denier" shout, "just read the IPCC". Never actually anything of value to add themselves.

It's like the chemtrail nutters shouting "just look up" when asked for proof.

Thargor · 26-08-2021 12:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804580#Comment_117804580

"Something technical" in your case is generally just lies dressed up with a few graphs and some waffle you copied and pasted from Netweather or wherever you get it though, Akrasia seems to be the only one bothered to dig into it to find that days bullsh1t.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-08-2021 12:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117805514#Comment_117805514

It really amazes me that you accuse me of making up lies when you say nothing about Banana Republic literally making up a story that some Italian broadcaster (whom he refuses to name) said it was 50 degrees in Sicily. It says a lot about you.

I don't copy and paste anything from anywhere else, especially Netweather, which I never visit. If you have examples of where I did then post them. Just the same way Banana posted the reference to the Italian broadcaster (not). I note you never actually give any rebuttal of these alleged lies, and maybe that's because you don't understand enough to be able to post more than general criticism like that above. Atlantic hurricanes are actually not shifting northwards, despite the claims. Tackle that one for starters.

Thargor · 26-08-2021 3:40pm

Stop your whining, the way you latch onto things and obsess over them for 50X posts afterwards is so pathetic. Dont mention my name out of the blue if you dont want me to reply to you. You got laughed at when you were caught making an ass out of yourself and are still nursing a grudge 6 months later. Its amusing to come in here and laugh at people like you sometimes thats all, you can demand all the essays on Atlantic hurricanes (???) you want 🤣

Gaoth Laidir · 26-08-2021 4:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117806512#Comment_117806512

Just as I thought. Nothing to add.

Thargor · 26-08-2021 4:45pm

And what do you add? Lies and bullsh1t for anyone who can be bothered wasting a few hours digging into your tragic homebrew "research" and endless pages of semantics arguments with anyone you can trick into engaging with you, day after day, year after year. Oh dont forget you're allowed to make snarky comments about anyone you want but if they reply to you about it they're "hurlers on the ditch" with nothing to add apparently.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-08-2021 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117806863#Comment_117806863

This is the Science forum, not After Hours. Try posting something scientific for once instead of making false claims of lies. Again, you ignore actual real lies posted by someone else.

Oneiric 3 · 26-08-2021 5:22pm

The Revolution hath begun...

https://twitter.com/ellievarley13/status/1430626488458563591

Thargor · 26-08-2021 5:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117806938#Comment_117806938

Oh look the wannabe thread policeman is out telling people what they can and cant post again. Funny though how the wannabe thread policeman only seems to waste his energy enforcing his made up rules on the people who accept the scientific consensus on AGW, the ones literally talking about lizard people on the previous page and how climate scientists cant be trusted because Nazi scientists engaged in human experimentation and other such theories get a free pass for some reason, funny that.

Sorry wannabe thread policeman, I post whatever I like wherever I like and if I want to laugh at you being caught out making fake graphs or demanding to know why European temp records arent being broken the day before they fall Ill do so, what are you going to do about it?

Thelonious Monk · 26-08-2021 5:44pm

The boards weather forum is crazy, where going along with scientific consensus regarding climate change seems to make you some sort of outlier who needs to be attacked

Banana Republic 1 · 26-08-2021 6:08pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0826/1242893-climate-report-europe/

Actual met office link with graphs and all

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/europe-experiences-warmest-year-on-record-in-2020

Oneiric 3 · 26-08-2021 6:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117807112#Comment_117807112

Mind blowing as usual Thargor.

Thargor · 26-08-2021 7:42pm

Oh look the special case wants to have the last word as usual but couldn't think of anything to say so he posts another one of his hilarious Bebo gifs from 2007 again, Im sure the wannabe thread policeman will be along any minute to call him out for it...

Oneiric 3 · 26-08-2021 8:00pm

Some light reading for you Thargor

The Nazi Science That Fed the Apollo 11 Moon Landing | Time

Another wave of short circuiting imminent... 😆

Thargor · 26-08-2021 9:04pm

Not sure why that article would cause me to short circuit Professor, thats the third or fourth time you've presented your theory on NASA data not being trustworthy because the early American space program used captured Nazis, I just put it in the shrieking gibberish file along with your theory about climate scientists all being liars because Covid-19 escaped from a lab in Wuhan and your other theory about David Attenborough and his team going to far-flung locations because they take sexual pleasure in watching the suffering of animals. I wonder what hilarious gif or wacky statement you'll come out with next?

Banana Republic 1 · 26-08-2021 9:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804549#Comment_117804549

Did you find that speech in a bin bag ?

Oneiric 3 · 26-08-2021 10:47pm

He didn't even mention my apparent association with David Ike. C'mon, Thargor, you are slipping... 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117808043#Comment_117808043

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 7:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117808135#Comment_117808135

I think I saw that very speech on an Italian TV channel. Don't ask me which one...

Akrasia · 27-08-2021 8:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804580#Comment_117804580

What are you on about? The IPCC have ‘nothing to add’

tens of thousands of pages of analysis by many of the worlds experts is ‘nothing’?

You’re more similar to the chemtrail loon, not the People who trust the conclusions from every single reputable scientific institution on the planet….

Your conclusion that 4c of warming isn’t something to be terribly concerned about is completely contradicted by all of the data

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 9:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117809312#Comment_117809312

Well, for example, nothing to add about the false claim that hurricanes like Henri are shifting northwards over time. You yourself made that claim yet neither you nor the others said anything when it was shown to be untrue. Your response to it was silence while Thargoad just ignored it and instead came out of the woodwork with his childish criticism. Fair enough if he disagrees with me, he wouldn't be the first, but at least do it in a mature manner.

Akrasia · 27-08-2021 1:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117809406#Comment_117809406

The paper said there was a poleward shift in both hemispheres

I didn’t break it down by specific basin, and the scientific view on this is that this is likely a global phenomenon caused by a widening of the tropics which is making higher latitudes less hostile to hurricanes. The models show it happen more as warming increases.

in recent years we have seen records broken in how far north TCs have been forming even in the Atlantic basin, so we’re really just waiting for the data to reveal the trend over time

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0227-5?WT.feed_name=subjects_atmospheric-dynamics

Orion402 · 27-08-2021 2:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117810717#Comment_117810717

The annual event has been going on for as long as life has been on Earth where oceanic temperatures fluctuate towards either pole as a reflection of two surface rotations acting in combination.

The most dramatic component of the event happens in a number of weeks as the South Pole turns out of the dark hemisphere of the Earth and into the light hemisphere for the next 6 months-

[ Insert Youtube video of 'South pole sunrise 2010' here]

The surface area where the Sun remains in view is quickly shrinking at the North pole until the Sun turns out of sight for 6 months until the March Equinox.

Climate research exists beyond the true explanation for the seasons as the North/South poles and indeed the entire surface of the planet turns once to the Sun each year parallel to the orbital plane and as a function of the orbital motion of the planet. On a solar system scale, planetary climate is determined by the degree of inclination to the orbital plane which in turn determines the rate of change in atmospheric conditions controlling effects on the surface.

The two surface rotations acting in combination is already visible on another planet (about 50 seconds in)-

[Insert video link 'Hubble rouses Uranus for Spring storms' here]

People can sometimes be petty and fickle, however, this exercise is not throwing good information after a modelling subculture, but for those who want to know what climate actually is and into individual seasonal weather events.

Oneiric 3 · 27-08-2021 6:02pm

Hurricane Faith remains the most northerly surviving hurricane as of today, and this occurred in the mid-1960s, which was a famously cold decade.

Hurricane Faith - Wikipedia

2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Comments

Yes much like Newtonian physics, Heliocentrism and many others.