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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Yes, you did diss dem, even when I told you NOAA does not make this clear, which somehow you attempted to turn into my problem. Those charts, regardless of what the baseline is, gave a good overview of SST trends in the region in over the last month. They weren't trying to prove anything either way.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    that data clearly added nothing to the debate and only serves to confuse

    nothing wrong with the data or NOAA, the context renders it meaningless



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Why are climate scientists dealing with 'professional PR companies'? What new fresh hell is this?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    You are right but we are not doing any of that. We are overwhelmingly focusing on carbon while destruction of the planet continues. Whatever about the consensus, I’m pretty confident that in the future the consensus will be that the focus on carbon was a disaster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    If those charts confused you, then I don't know what to say. They were perfectly in tune with the discussion at the time and just added more context and closer view to those charts posted previously to it.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I challenged Gaoth for using a baseline of 1981 to 2010 to demonstrate climate change isn’t a factor in Ida, and you immediately posted charts with a baseline that you don’t know but presume it’s a few months prior, also to show a cooler anomaly before the storm.

    neither of those charts do anything to negate my point which was that rapid intensification has hugely increased due to warmer oceans due to climate change

    Ida will be in the top 4 or 5 storms on record in terms of the amount of rapid intensification when this is all done. And in 5 years time Ida probably won’t be in the top 10 anymore



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    No, actual real examples of areas where humans won't be able to live, just as you said. Drought in southern Europe is nothing new and can easily be overcome. I gave a very good example of that in the case of Sardinia, and they did that back in the '60s. They are still one of the breadbaskets of Italy. If they can do it other can too. It goes right back to MT's first reply in this thread, where living with and adapting to changing climate has served us well in the past and will do in the future.

    Again it's them blacks from Africa what's the problem, right? We don't want any more of them, do we? How is it that we always hear that Africa is feeling the worst effects of climate change? Is it actually true or is it just because these countries have very little station infrastructure and hence the lack of observational evidence can be wallpapered over by the use of pictures of starving children who been dessimated by drought for decades upon decades. It's nothing new, but it does serve to put a face on the alleged future crisis.

    Oh and which places are these that will be inundated to the point of non-existence?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    You're good, you can summarise storm data even before the storm. Wow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It is a worry that decarbonising will have negative consequences but it is essential that we do it, and the longer we delay, the less time we have to take increasingly desperate measures, the greater the risk that some terrible consequences are caused by rash decisions

    we frittered away decades, procrastinated because the merchants of doubt exaggerated the uncertainty so they could line their pockets, Now we’ve guaranteed ourselves some degree of ecological destruction and the risk of collapsing ecosystems gets greater every day. To avoid these risks we needed to take the time to carefully implement the necessary changes, but we squandered that time arguing about things scientists already told us were true.

    Post edited by Akrasia on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Just for Akrasia, here is the historical chart for 1856. That's a fairly impressive rapid intensification of Cat 4 Storm 1 there, reaching 130 knots and at 934 hPa a pressure likely to be lower than that of Ida.

    Or let's take 1893.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    i can refer to the data we know about already.

    if Ida intensified by more than 45mph in 24 hours it’s in the top 5 already

    according to weather.com it has intensified by 65mph in 24 hours making it tied with Humberto as the fastest rapid intensification on record


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/climate-change-is-causing-more-rapid-intensification-of-atlantic-hurricanes/



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    That we know of. We've a wealth of extra hi-res datapoints now that we didn't have just a few decades ago. Aircraft SFMR missions only started less than 20 years ago but these have been key in detecting rapid intensification that would otherwise never have been detected, not even with satellite data, which only go back a feew more decades. Now they're also using terrestrial radar data to detect windspeeds at 25,000 ft (see this morning's NHC discussion on the tropical thread). So you say were seeing more RIs now, which may be true but only because we simply didn't see them before.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Those charts I showed did not show a 'cooler anomaly' before the storm. What they did show were temporary cooler waters developing in specific regions during and in the wake of previous storms, which if you took note, I suggested might have been the case a couple of posts before it.

    You are literally inverting what those charts actually showed.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    The supposed tackling of climate change is being led by politicians and corporations, not scientists. There is massive profits to be made with decarbonisation and it takes the attention off the ongoing destruction of the environment. The scientists are being too silent on this, for now.

    To solve the problem we need to stop decarbonisation policies, carbon taxes and carbon credits. We need to focus on protecting the environment of which a byproduct will be less carbon output.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    doubt uncertainty whataboutary

    you don’t think people would have noticed a 65mph intensification within 24 hours more than 20 years ago

    and This is the 2nd time the same storm has rapidly intensified, the first was by 40mph, within the top 10 on record. The climate models agree that this is new and this is a feature of climate change

    your doubt only works if you refuse to accept multiple lines of evidence



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Code red is not civilisation ending. Unless you can point me to the areas that specifically call out civilisation.


    To perhaps save you some time, I can formulate an opinion on impact to civilisation from the predicted environmental extremes. I’m more interested in where the ‘Code Red Report’ refers to civilisation ending or the human species threatened.


    From my last read, I must read it again. The Emperor Penguin was screwed in 2100.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    No, they probably did notice it back in 1856 when that storm literally exploded (that's the preferred term nowadays; it sounds so much more dramatic, don't you think?) out of nowhere and deepened over that same eddy area as today. We'll never be able to put an exact number on the mph/24 hrs but I suppose it was over a century and a half ago, back it utopian Neverland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    We don’t monitor planetary change. I know you are battling many posts in here. The issue of coverage remains. The spread or lack there of in weather stations is pitiful when considering global. I’ll follow up the post, but an estimate puts 70% of all stations in the northern hemisphere, with the majority of them in Europe and USA (not North America)



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Wasn't there a Gulf hurricane, around this time of year at that start of the 20th century that exploded and caused untold devastation across the southern states?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    humans can live in deserts, just not very many of us



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    But the scientists know this, and have developed sophisticated techniques to account for the varied distribution of stations and the data are regularly analyses and validated against independent lines of evidence including scientific observations (multiple independent types of sensory data) and proxy data, and modeling (essentially the best mathematical equations humans have ever developed, formulated and run independently by multiple different teams around the world. This might not be good enough evidence for you, but it’s the best we have, constantly improving and it’s good enough for 97% of all practicing professional climate scientists and every professional scientific institution on the planet



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Europe is big enough for Africa, just as Europe was big enough to go into Africa and turn it, via colonialism, into a **** hole The very subtle racist element going on with some of the arguments on here these last few weeks are disturbing.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    If you read the link I posted above, it said that this kind of explosive intensification was modeled to occur about 1 in a hundred years pre climate change. And about once every 5 years by 2100

    with rapid intensification of 115mph in 24 hours happening more than 1 time every decade

    thats a major hurricane appearing and landfalling out of nowhere. That changes everything that cities currently do to protect lives given 3-4 days notice



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    You wear your heart on your sleeve, admirably. Good on you.


    Satellite data fills in the overwhelming majority, and is the in many cases the prime and only source of upper atmosphere.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    There is absolutely nothing racist in what I said. Displacing tens or hundreds of millions of people from their homes causes instability regardless of what color their skin is. Africa is extremely vulnerable to climate change given that many are already facing heat and drought stress in their current climate.

    Europe could and should do everything possible to take these people in and welcome them as equals. But I have been called a utopian for a lot less than this



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The fossil fuel companies hired PR companies, advising them to maximize doubt and uncertainty. Exxon’s own internal research proved to them decades ago that this was real, and they buried the findings and spent millions on campaigns lobbying politicians and the media to emphasize doubt and uncertainty. They hired literally the same scientists and PR companies that the Tobacco companies used to deny smoking caused cancer



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The satellite records do a lot of heavy lifting but they are calibrated by on site measurements too. On the whole I trust the evidence not least because there are plenty of arrogant self important scientists out there who want to make a name for themselves and would get thousands of citations if they can successfully demonstrate errors in the temperature records

    Errors are found all of the time btw, and they adjust for them regularly, it’s just that with so many points of redundancy the the errors rarely make such a difference to affect the overall outcome

    when they do, it’s headline news



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    101 years ago almost to the day. Around 936 hPa and 125 kts on landfall.

    Galveston Hurricane 1900

    This killer weather system was first detected over the tropical Atlantic on August 27. While the history of the track and intensity is not fully known, the system reached Cuba as a tropical storm on September 3 and moved into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 5th. A general west-northwestward motion occurred over the Gulf accompanied by rapid intensification. By the time the storm reached the Texas coast south of Galveston late on September 8, it was a Category 4 hurricane. After landfall, the cyclone turned northward through the Great Plains. It became extratropical and turned east-northeastward on September 11, passing across the Great Lakes, New England, and southeastern Canada. It was last spotted over the north Atlantic on September 15.

    This hurricane was the deadliest weather disaster in United States history. Storm tides of 8 to 15 ft inundated the whole of Galveston Island, as well as other portions of the nearby Texas coast. These tides were largely responsible for the 8,000 deaths (estimates range from 6,000 to 12,000) attributed to the storm. The damage to property was estimated at $30 million...




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    thats a major hurricane appearing and landfalling out of nowhere. That changes everything that cities currently do to protect lives given 3-4 days notice

    What is, that one in 1856? Yes, it was indeed. At least these days we have infinitely more warning.



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