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The Irish protocol.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Can you link to this discussion please?

    Was it people ringing in accusing Lucid talk or a proper investigation?

    We know all methods of polling have their flaws.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    I'd imagine that the number of people that invested in a LucidTalk poll to do this (on each poll cycle, to ensure the numbers don't just crash back to reality the next time round) would be pretty statistically insignificant, though admittedly that's a hunch rather than something I can back up.

    Any online poll is vulnerable to this; it's why a significant sample size and weighting is required; the idea being the insincere responses get washed out in the noise.


    Odd that you didn't highlight any of these complaints with regards to the Loyalist poll highlighted earlier, with all its glaring flaws.....or Owen Polley's opinion piece you presented as a, 'great article' in which the opinion was formed not by a weighted sample of the NI population, nor a random sample of the broader Unionist population....but rather on a sample of those who read the Newsletter....and are incensed enough to write a letter to said newspaper.....inherently a group with more extreme feelings on the topic.....and which he presented other articles he wrote himself as source material.


    It's almost as if you don't hold the same high standards when you're reading what you want to hear but go scrambling to look for flaws you can exaggerate when it doesn't.


    I'll highlight that I have plenty of time for the Life and Times survey, and would hold it in higher regard when forming my opinion than a LucidTalk poll, and will continue to do so when Life and Times next does a survey even if it doesn't, 'take my side' (though like any other, it also isn't perfect....for example in 2020, it was also primarily online polling rather than the usual face to face.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    M&S have taken lot of flak for simply not being ready for Brexit. They had a business model that HAD to be adjusted and they just seemed to ignore it.

    Ho hum, if their own arrogance causes their demise. Others seem to be knuckling down and finding a way to stock their shelves.

    David Henig on Twitter: "Marks and Spencer did not have a good Brexit transition, failing to get products to stores in France, and it looks like the reason might be that the Chairman does not understand international trade or the EU. https://t.co/RprKtv7Zqm https://t.co/b4Xko6k4Fy" / Twitter



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,646 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Linketty-link?

    The Life and Times Survey data was also collected online, so presumably it's as "open to abuse" as the LucidTalk data. Unless you're aware of measures that Life and Times have taken to prevent this, but LucidTalk haven't? If you are, give details. If you're not, on what basis do you regard L&T as "more reputable" than LucidTalk?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,867 ✭✭✭donspeekinglesh


    Ah, yes. Former Tory MP, and Chief Executive of the Conservative Party. No agenda there at all.

    Maybe M&S should have opened some distribution centres on the island of Ireland. you don't hear the same whinging from Tesco.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,286 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Don't forget he's a founding member of the Policy Exchange a seriously right wing think tank.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I suspect this exposé of Lucid Talk maybe consisted of people ringing in to reveal their friend in the pub told them that a second cousin knows the mother of a man who fiddled the poll. 'I'm telling you Steven, it's a disgrace!'.

    We'll see, whenever we get a link to this. For the moment we have this comparison of how close the companies got to the actual results. Lucid Talk way ahead on this graph. Maybe the Shinners are rigging the actual elections too?




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,212 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Would this be the same Archie Norman, former Tory MP and lead non-executive board member at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) from 2016 to 2020 and who was involved in the botched privatisation of British railways?

    The same Archie Norman who in 2018 warned the French that if they were to have checks at Dover then the French would not get their M&S sandwiches?

    The same Archie Norman who urged businesses to bring their staff back to the office a year ago - in the middle of the padnemic

    The same Archie Norman who recently claimed that EU rules are "totally unsuited and were never designed for a modern fresh food supply chain between closely intertwined trading partners". (Think about that bit for a minute!)

    His comment that "the Irish Government is following EU guidelines" appears to ignore the important point that we are happy members of the EU. Of course we will follow the guidelines. (As are the UK in so many areas but obviously he won't mention this).

    The man is a clown!



  • Registered Users Posts: 9 Togglename


    I see we are headed for yet another tiresome



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Just on Opinion Polls, I see somebody has done a bit of digging on the Loyalist Voice opinion poll and come up with the following. I guess we can put that one on the shelf to catch some dust or use it as an explanation of why 'protest' of any magnitude has failed to materialise.

    It's a poll of 1,020 loyalists, not wider Unionist or Protestant thinking.

    Note

    - 77% of respondents were aged 34+

    - 87% of respondents were male.

    - 91% of respondents were from Antrim, Down & Armagh.

    - 69% were from urban areas.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I am doing precisely what you say I will not do. I have just quoted a LUCID poll which I like the results in. I follow up by dsaying the poll is being seriously questioned on BBC - and I get told that I would not question a poll that i liked

    Unbelievable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,966 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    M&S Chairman seems perennially surprised that Ireland did not Ir-exit, remained in the EU and therefore implemented Customs for UK imports on 1/1 this year as required, consistent with EU membership and UKs new status!

    I suppose that is what Brexit is about. Making problems as a point of principle ("sovereignty") and acting surprised afterwards that other people can have principles too.

    It's been very unfortunate for Brexiter unionists that the right people haven't been seriously hurt yet (Nationalists in NI, "Southern Ireland") but repeating what I've said before if they actually do get their way on this NI protocol business (not impossible) they may not be happy with the final outcome either!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Criticised BY the BBC or ON the BBC.

    Come on downcow, you have been asked to give a source we can look at. Any chance you will link?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Folks I am not a pollster. Cool your jets.

    I am simply pointing out that a poll for which i liked the results is being heavily questioned. I am reasured you guys all think the Lucid results were close and that the DUP is being hammered for leading us to sea checks and the Alliance are feeding votes back to unionist parties.

    Its all good, relax



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    So I think what you are saying is that the TUV are on the verge of becoming the biggest unionist party? i don't agree with that analysis - I think the poll is way off



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No, my analysis would be the TUV will fail to match their polling because they don't have the candidates.


    *So I did a bit of research and cannot find a mention of this heavy questioning of Lucid Talk BY or ON the BBC.

    Any link or is this another garden path you are going up and expecting people to follow?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,212 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I note that US Congressman Brendan Boyle has repeated the assertion that the UK must live up to what it agreed in terms of the NIP...

    “The only way forward is through the NI Protocol to mitigate the damage that has been caused by Brexit and the hard Brexit that this British government opted for,” Boyle said.

    “The US has not been shy about calling this out publicly and we will continue to do so.”

    ...

    "The reality is, from the White House to Capitol Hill, there are a number of Irish Americans who are still in very influential roles."




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    DUP seem to have all but capitulated on the Protocol. Pleading for an extension now.

    Wise move. They will get one too if Westminster don't queer the pitch. Nobody wants to cause hardship just because it took a long time for some to accept the new realities.

    https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1432685333871800322



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,646 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You weren't pointing out that it was "being heavily questioned". Interesting use of the passive voice, implicitly ascribing to others views which in fact you expressed as your own. You expressed the view that the Lucid poll had "very little credibility", that it is "open to abuse" and that the BBC were "rightly asked" why they continued using it. You described other polls as "reputable polls" and said that Lucid was dealt a serious blow. These weren't view that were ascribe to others; you expressed them as your own.

    When pressed for detail, you declined to back up these views and now appear to be distancing yourself from them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,646 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Great to see Leo becoming real about the need for an agreement



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,212 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Agreement on?

    Are you referring to him agreeing to the possibility of extending the grace period? As we've always said, the EU would prefer minimum disruption as a consequence of Brexit. On this basis, what's your exact point or are you just stating the obvious?



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    DC is trying to present taking-their-medicine as some sort of unionist victory. There was always scope within the Protocol for trust-building derived easements but the 'shire of bastards' in the British government are using the 'ship of fools' in the DUP, and wider unionism, to play to their English nationalist audience.

    I think we can chalk down Unionism's 100 year anniversary of dividing our country as the end-point of the rotten 'Protestant ascendancy' and all the centuries-long institutional hatred it has wrought on the Irish people.

    There's a lesson here for Unionism, not that they'll learn it, every time Unionism steps out of line there will be a price to pay and that price will be increasing soft-unification of our country and further rejection of British jurisdiction in the northeast of Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Twas predicted back when Downcow was first crowing about the vaunted Legal Challenge tearing down the Protocol.....some nonsense would be pushed as the 'Great Victory', and the grown ups would get on with things while letting them pretend they've won.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,743 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Focus of the belligerent Unionists seems to have shifted to taking down the PSNI bizarrely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,646 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Link, please, to reports of Leo ever, in the entire history of the universe from the earliest of time to the present day, denying the need for an agreement.

    The UUP are preaching to the converted here. The people they need to find traction with are in Westminster, not in Dublin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Well I was told on here that there would be no more negotiations, yet Leo says he wants to reach an agreement- and no it is not about an extension.

    I don’t know how an agreement will be reached without negotiating?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,629 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I was slated on here for saying that the current protocol arrangements will lead to major issues of medicines getting from the mainland to OWC

    I see Swann (who is not given to exaggeration) is expressing huge concern now. And even the SF health advisor is acknowledging that it needs sorted.

    companies have now notified the health service of approx 1,000 drugs the will definitely not be supplying to ni after dec.

    I see EU are offering to change the rules on checks to get some medicines in. I was assured by some very loud posters on here that there would be no movement from EU only the already available easements implemented.

    now the slide has started I expect much more movement from the Eu in the coming months. Common sense will prevail



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,212 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Can you please point to a reputable source that shows that Varadkar (or anyone from the EU) is willing to reopen negotiations?



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