US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

mindboggling

Yes the present Taliban seem to have changed at least some of their fanatical Islamic credidentials....pictures of the leadership on the airport runway taking pics and videos on mobile phones is one such change.....in the past ( MK1 model Taliban) taking pictures of any living thing was completely forbidden ( only one of hundreds of forbidden activities ) Also back then, the whole Country was defunct in terms a functioning society. They ran it into the ground, with nothing working and only for the UN and a few NGO's supplying such basics as food and medicine, there would have been wholesale deaths due to Famine and illness. People were turning against them big time, and even a lot of the Taliban themselves realized that their ideas were not working, and sooner or later, they would be ousted. So what we are hearing from the Doha Taliban, and from the Taliban in the remote rural areas, are two different thing's. Time will tell. But I think that you are right about at least some of them will form some kind of mutual alliance with the US / Nato. Its their best chance really to gain credibility with the west / US etc. Sure China and Russia are first out if the traps recognizing the new Taliban Government, but they will make strange bedfellows.

We've no idea what these numbers are. Did the Taliban do an audit in the last 24 hours and sent it to the worlds media :)

Or is this the same list pulled from 20yrs of audits of equipment used by the US and Afghan Army, since 2003. Much of it no longer working or worn out. Much of it captured in previous battles.

What will they do with it anyway. They've already captured almost the entire country. Whos left to fight.

I pity any body putting up any resistance against that fire power and there lack of compassion if you do, i say a swift bullet to your head if they catch you. I say areas not under tabilan control are in for a world of hurt. Hard to fight against that fire power.

First they will try and cajole them to try and get them to work, and if does not succeed, they will threaten their Families, and if they still refuse to "Cooperate" they will be killed, but only as a last resort. The need these guys. Its one thing for a Taliban to learn how to drive a humvee, or even a Bradley fighting vehicle, and of course using US rifles etc. would come naturally. But flying helicopters and Planes are a different kettle of fish, and so is regular maintenance, which is highly specialised.

And how many commanders do they have that are actually versed in combined-arms tactics? The Taliban are primarily a guerilla force, accustomed to hit-and-run attacks in areas where the terrain is on their side. Attacking an entrenched enemy, such as in the Panjshir, requires a completely different skill set, both on the operational side, coordinating infantry advances with air and artillery strikes, or even coordinating units beyond the company level, and on the logistical side, keeping the soldiers fed, the vehicles fuelled and working, and ensuring that everyone has enough ammunition.

There's a reason why the Taliban leadership is desperately trying to get as many ANA soldiers, officers and pilots back to their posts as possible. These people possess skills that the Taliban desperately need. The current situation is akin to tossing the 1916 rebels the keys to a battleship like HMS Warspite. They'd know not only what it is but what it can do, but they wouldn't have the slightest idea on what to do with it, even if they could man it, because they simply didn't have the need for it.

What would be the point of this, unless Masood and co. have a realistic prospect of achieving 'regime change'?

It might serve US strategic interest to have an internal insurgency badgering the Taliban, but in what way would it benefit the Afghan people?

Oddly enough the Soviets had even more firepower. They had bombers, tanks, Katusha rockets, jets, attack aircraft, APCs, a large professional army, etc. Still had the same problems as the Americans did fighting guys in sandals with AK47s. The Taliban might have firepower but nowhere close to the firepower the USSR or US had and they couldn't win.

Well for a start. it would help the people in the Pamjshir. Plus it will provide a beacon of hope for the Afgha people as a whole, who as we have seen with the nrs trying to escape, do not by any means and in large Nrs want to live under Taliban rule,,,they have not forgotten the Taliban inflicted terrors of the past. And bear in mind that the Taliban have no legitimate and legal right to rule Afghanistan. What they have taken was taken at gunpoint. They have no Loya Jirga endorsement. And now the positions are reversed..IE the US ( and others) can now covertly supply any anti-taliban force to harass them. Unless of course, the US decide to take a different route, but first, everyone is waiting to see what the Taliban will do.

Well, I'd say that everyone ( and especially those associated with the US / NATO ) who could leave have done so, And theres reports of Afghan pilots flying their aircraft out of Afghanistan, and ANA commandos and soldiers driving their vehicles to the Panjshir, to join with Masood. What is unknown at this point is exactly how many escaped, and how many did not.Hopefully everyone who was involved in flying / driving / maintaining these machines has escaped...but realistically, I'd say not all of them did.

The Taliban know very well about invading the Panjshir valley.

They've attempted it before, more than once.

The Russians also met their grave there, they had air support, combined arms.

Neither the Russians the US or anyone else has managed to defeat the Afghans permanently. Many nations have held it for awhile, only to lose it at some stage. And one of the main reason's is the Afghan is fighting in his own back yard, whereas the US / Russians etc, are many thousands of miles away from home, and the very magnitude of maintaining an army that far away is immense. Its a very distinct disadvantage for foreign army. I remember being out in a very remote mountainy rugged area, and I saw an single Afghan walking along, he was wearing normal Pashtun clothing and carried a staff, but no weapons that I could see ( its quite possible he was armed, but hard to see under his clothing.) The point is, he knew exactly where he was (within walking distance of his destination, obviously but that could still mean many miles.) He knew where he could get food, water and shelter. He was in his own environment. Now take what kind of supports would have to be put in place for foreign soldiers to survive there? And of course the best friend of the Afghan has always been time. Now if there's going to be a revolt against the Taliban...the scales will be tipped a little bit differently.

Maybe the Russian Wagner group??? and score browny points with the Taliban? As for local Afghans??? I'm not so sure about that......paycheck or not. Afghans bombing their fellow Afghans??

Afghan society is still very much tribal. There really isn't much of an overarching Afghan national identity, apart from maybe the shared heritage of having humiliated every major empire that ever tried to conquer them. Tribes and clans will work together when it suits them but if one tribe feels they can get more of what they want by turning against another tribe, they'll do so. That's one of the reasons why so many western nations had trouble getting to grips with the local power structure in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen how well the Taliban will be able to manage this. The fact that there are already clear discrepancies between statements made by the Taliban leadership and some of the local commanders on the ground could indicate that a rift is already forming.