Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

I'm assuming that the gigs that have already sold out before the announcement of 60% capacity will still allow everyone to attend, yeah? This part was thought-out and discussed with gig venues etc?

Repeat after me:

Infection rates =/= transmission rates

There is correlation between the 2, but vaccines being 94% effective against hospitalization and 40% effective against mild disease (for example) does not mean that transmission is reduced by 94% or 40%.

The gigs that have already sold out were likely at the old capacity of 200, so unless an outdoor venue has a capacity of fewer than 330 they are likely to no longer be sold out and should release more tickets... It's unlikely that the vaccine pass rule can be implemented after the tickets have been sold

Go back and read my posts again, go read the studies and come back with an informed decision on what you think the transmission (not infection!) reduction will be with vaccines vs. without vaccines.

And as I said, at least it will hopefully stop you confusing infection with transmission and stop saying that vaccines don't reduce transmission.

Depends on the context, we had 36 admissions to hospital in the last 24 hours, if that keep up we'd reach the figure of 100 in three days... We also had 41 hospital discharges in the last 24 hours though so that makes it much more manageable in the context

Source: COVID tracker app

If we get an average of 2,000 cases and 40 daily hospitalisations between now and September 30th we are looking at a further 60k cases and 1,200 hospitalisations to add to those figures... Where does that put us on NPHETs scale? I think it's only one tier higher, open to correction though

This is just demonstrably untrue, compare infection rate and hospital admissions pre-vaccine to post-vaccine, Delta caused a delay in reopening due to higher transmission rates but that just meant a higher % needed to be vaccinated and we are reaching that and cases are relatively stable at R0 ~= 1 and hospital/ICU admissions are matching the predictions.

Unless you're implying that SARS-COV2, COVID-19 and lockdowns is some sort of hoax used by pharma companies to get rich? (i.e. the money spent on vaccines is a small fraction of that spent on PUP or lost due to decreased economic activity).

Now it's Taoiseach's turn to explain himself to the Media High Priests.

On RTE Radio 1 now.

Basic line of questioning is are you at risk of angering the Covid Gods by opening up on October 22nd?

MM on the news at one. Very curious this question re piblic transport, seems no advice sought on the 100% capacity, Vacination levels really seems to be the only reasoning for yesterdays decisions (probably sensible), I'm not getting any real sense of a plan B, a little concerning and no, I'm not predicting doom and gloom but I seem to recall the lack of a plan B, biting the nation in the ass not so long ago.

Very curious also the decision on PUP, not even mentioned yesterday. MM has just confirmed those in arts and entertainment on PUP will not immediately move onto JSA this month if they were due to, instead they'll say on the lowest rate of PUP, €203 🤔 I'm somewhat baffled by this, how can one sector get perceived prferential treatment (not referring to €203 which is shocking), what about self employed on PUP, those still not recalled to work, other sectors still closed and there's still a few. The minister responsible already stated the PUP can not be viewed on a sectorial basis 🤔

It's kind of the wrong type of data when you look at managing cases. For example, if you say in a given week, that the numbers in hospital range between 300-350. That modelling data will just accumulate so you could have an extra 250 onto that weekly total, but offset in the real world by 200 discharges and an unchanging range of cases in hospital. Such a scenario of increases raises all sorts of alarms, that are mostly unwarranted. One can acknowledge that daily projections are important but these ballooning long-term totals are really not a useful tool for government policy.

There was recognition that from a very early stage vaccine sterilisation of the virus to prevent transmission was not a possibility. Especially where in all likelihood the virus would mutate. The early efficacy for the then variant was just a welcome by-product. The primary aims were the efficacy in reducing serious illness and deaths from transmissions, both of which they are continuing to do.

Your statement is that we were sold snake oil (by multiple different vendors, not including those who dropped out when their trials didn't succeed). Do you now retract that piece?

The fact that vaccines are now being actively developed again is great news, they are low cost and highly effective at preventing diseases, they are also being produced by multiple companies, some off patent, ensuring future low prices.

But again, the evidence that they work exceptionally well is irrefutable, the cost to the taxpayer is much less than the cost of an ongoing pandemic and certainly a lot less costly than the treatments being developed for COVID-19.

So when exactly is the vaccine/immunity pass set to expire in Ireland?

I went for a blood serum antibody test the other week and was amazed to find out that I have no antibodies = no prior immunity, despite the fact that I haven't been overly cautious and have been at work the entire time.

I was hoping to have had prior infection to avoid taking the vax as the global push for immunity passports disgusts me hugely. Mainly a principled decision on my part since I'm youngish (early 30s) and am fit and healthy due to a combination of lucky genetics and a very active lifestyle full of exercise and good diet.

In the end I sold out and am going for a one and done shot tomorrow literally just so I can escape Ireland and go on holidays. As an anti-authoritarian weirdo I'm a bit disappointed in myself but I simply can't spend another full year stuck on this gloomy lunatic island, and the EU cert isn't set to expire until July 2022 at the earliest.

None of this is normal, proportionate or scientific. There was some good news yesterday about the relaxation of restrictions but the domestic vax pass is still up in the air as far as I can see so hoping someone can clarify when it's expiring here? Or have the government just cleverly outsourced the responsibility of vax passport enforcement to eg. concert venues?