Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Options
14394404424444451586

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hmm, NPHET still predicting 2500-3000 cases a day this month, 500-700 in hospital and 80-130 in ICU. That's their optimistic projection!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,372 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    maybe someone could run fibre the 200 yds I need to get decent broadband so I could easily work from home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,767 ✭✭✭hynesie08


    The absolute irony of you throwing the term doom monger around. How's the echo variant that's gonna shut down travel between Ireland and the UK coming along?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,437 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Quit stalking him.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,237 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    Any chance he'd bring Tomas Ryan and Staines with him?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    7k is definitely way overstating it, but it's also not just as simple as having some furniture and computer stuff delivered to an employee's home. It has been up to now, but into the future there'll be more scrutiny.

    There are certain obligations on an employer in regards to health and safety in terms each employee's workspace and its suitability. This includes - and always has included - that for remote employees that they have an appropriate workspace. A tiny desk and stool jammed in under the stairs, or a few pillows propped up against a headboard, are not appropriate.

    These are statutory obligations that can't be signed away by an employee with a contract saying "I know my workspace is crap and my back and neck will be fucked, but it's OK, I accept the risks". A certain level of self-certification is probably allowed; The employer provides employees with a description of what an appropriate workspace looks like, and the employee signs a declaration that they have access to such a workspace.

    But for the most part, the employer will be on the hook to ensure that their employees aren't in some cramped accommodation crowded around a kitchen table with four other people.

    There are security considerations too. You can't be working on sensitive documentation in full view of someone who doesn't work at the company. The bare minimum requirement will be a room in your house configured in such a way that your screen/documents are not visible to anyone else who does not work at the same company.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Registered Users Posts: 303 ✭✭.42.


    Scientists are now saying herd immunity is now unachievable and every person will catch COVID 19 at some stage whether vaccinated or not and that mass testing should stop and only people who become sick or hospitalised should be tested and counted.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Tbf, if WFH gets limited to people who basically have their own house, government are signing their death warrant when it comes to elections. Young people already feel crap about a lot of stuff, and with the housing market the way it is, if WFH privileges are gatelocked like that, there will be hell I'd reckon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    So, that's coming from the letter of 25th August. What that letter says is;

    Revised modelling scenarios calibrated to 11 August 2021 show, for optimistic scenarios, cases counts peaking at 2500-3000 cases per day in mid September, with later peaks in healthcare demand seeing 500-700 people in hospital and 80-130 people in ICU

    So, technically speaking the models are kind of out of date by the time the advice is given. That said, we all scoffed at the previous models, and then it turned out that the mid-range scenarios were actually fairly close to the money. So it may very well be that NPHET are expect a schools bump.

    The letter also explicitly sets out the five pillars they believe are necessary for the lifting of all restrictions;

    1. Two weeks have passed after we hit 90% coverage of 16+ (We'll hit this pillar well before the end of September)
    2. An assessment at the time that circulation & impact of the infection is at a manageable level
    3. Hospital numbers are low OR reducing
    4. There is a plan in place to ensure continuing capacity in regard to contact tracing, testing, sequencing, etc.
    5. "The absence of a new variant of concern with significantly increased potential for one or more of the following: greater transmissibility, increased virulence or vaccine escape."

    In reality the only open question will be #3. The reason 22nd of October was chosen is because all of the models suggest that one way or another, hospital numbers will be down or dropping by that date.

    #5 is an emergency brake. At present there are no variants of concern that are poised to displace Delta, and thus it is incredibly unlikely for one to appear and spread in the next 6-8 weeks. Nevertheless it would be negligent of them not to include that.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So when are masks going to be gone? If it wasn't mentioned in the plan to get rid of restrictions then are they are permanent now?

    I hate the things so much that I'll leave the country if they are going to be around long term.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I can see that argument alright, but I'd say the majority of people WFH in shared accommodation already absolutely hate it. The next step is a landlord putting one of these hellscapes in the shared sitting room and selling it as a dream rental for busy young professionals.

    Hopefully that would be outlawed and stamped on, because nobody wants that.

    What they should look towards is providing grant money for the conversion of unused small commercial spaces (e.g. old shops) into a shared working hubs so that people can have a workspace five minutes from home. Give people more options than "your bedroom or the office two hours away" and you get to keep all the benefits of widespread home working.



  • Registered Users Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭amandstu


    So ,as of today it seems there are 4 main models for the next 6 weeks or so.

    Is there anywhere where the general public can see them along with what they are predicated on and what variables are taken as the most important?


    And what about the earlier models ?Are they similarly archived anywhere online?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Ya, that would be horrid. I'm someone who doesn't own their own house and WFH does not work for me (it's more a 1 day a week would be plenty for me as that's what I did occasionally pre covid) but if they gatelock it, it'll go down very badly. I'd hope/expect government to pass laws on what constitutes as acceptable for WFH (they'll have a separate issue here between urban/rural divide if companies implement minimum broadband speeds for WFH that they'll need to sort)



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    @muddypuppy wrote:

    I wouldn't call this "fairly close"

    I was referring to the models back in July (?) that had everyone thinking NPHET were off the deep end. The images in that Twitter thread have been taken from NPHET's most recent projections, which as I mention were already a bit out of date by the time the advice was published.

    At the moment, we seem to be tracking quite strongly against the most optimistic projection from the most recent models. Which is nice. If that holds, we can expect to peak in a couple of weeks at < 500 in hospital and < 100 in ICU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Yeah thought i was missing something . Seems like we peaked over a week ago.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983


    So I believe ICU beds and all that with it are quite expensive to set up from reading posts around here…What about standard hospital beds? Could we not have created/set up more in last year or so? Or is that silly suggestion? I know it is not that simple but could anything have being done realistically?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983



    Not being smart but time and time again they have got their modelling way off….Not sure what data scientists they are using but wouldn’t pay too much attention…



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That is hugely overstated. Look at London. Almost every large firm has had its staff working on a hybrid basis for years. That is tens of thousands of people WFH a couple of days every week for many years. And has been no problem. The employer provides all the training, self certification.....the employer is not on the hook for a hybrid working arrangement (they are potentially for a full time WFH arrangement). And people not supportive of flexible working will also throw out GDPR as a reason. Again, this is a nonsense. GDPR for flexible working is absolutely not an issue....I work with customer and market sensitive data at home and, again, have done for years. I am not allowed print, and the laptop has appropriate security configured. People just looking for excuses to try to limit what most employees today want and demand.

    I just dont understand the mentality of people who are not supportive of flexibility that is better for the wellbeing of many (80% of people according to polls))



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Don't have the figures to hand, but we have actually increased ICU and bed capacity quite a bit since April 2020.

    There are significant set up costs for ICU, not least because they require specialised staff, but your typical bed isn't just one you throw in the corner either. There's always talk about "open beds", which is to say that you have enough medical staff to accommodate the number of beds you have available. Many hospitals have a bed capacity that they can't use because they don't have enough staff. So adding beds in general requires you to add staff in general. We have quite a bit of difficulty adding staff anyway, hence our reliance on foreign staff. But as you'd expect they're much much harder to come by in the middle of a pandemic.

    In a warzone or natural disaster, you just bring people in and throw everyone on any bed you can find and treat them regardless of how much staff you have. But outside of that there is a balancing point where if you have too few staff for the number of patients you have on beds, you will actually kill more people. The guy with severe angina will die because the nearest nurse was treating the guy with a bad 'flu. Whereas if you send the latter guy home to rest because you have no spare beds, they'll both survive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    We haven’t increased our ICU capacity significantly at all . Our bed capacity is not fit for purpose . We have 5 million now and it is by no means enough for the population .

    Where else in Europe would you have elderly patients on trollies on cold corridors and a three year waiting list for hip replacement or cataract surgery

    Its an absolute scandal that this is not addressed and an attempt to put it right while pouring money at it with very little increase at all



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,760 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Gerry will probably wake up some morning and all the villagers will be gone off in a big boat



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭techdiver


    Does anyone have/know of any up to date figures of the prevalence of variants in Ireland per case load?

    I would assume Delta is fairly dominant at this point?



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    When it comes to the HSE and the health system there are enough pet peeves for everyone in the audience. Eyes will now be on the very well-paid Paul Reid and what he does about it as we emerge from this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,890 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    It was up to 97% by end of July so presume it's 100% by now



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Maybe we need an emergency committee to deal with the looming crisis of our lack of beds and ICU capacity . It needs forward planing years ahead , training and recruiting nurses , increasing care home capacity , training and retaining doctors and building hospitals and care facilities . This has got to be addressed now and quickly



Advertisement