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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,941 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    I’ve always thought that if we really wanted to stamp out transmission, test test test and quarantine the vaccinated as I’m sure a lot are positive, would that ever be considered ?

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,690 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Sounds far too simple that Marty. Problem is if you only have capacity to process 175K tests / week it sort of makes Test Test Test a bit difficult to achieve.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,385 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    Prior to the Delta variant showing up they had 60% fully vaccinated. Their Delta cases are now exceeding the Kent numbers from earlier in the year and they are seeing ten times the death rate of Ireland (with twice the population). Since Delta there has been an uptick in vaccinations.

    What is clear is that vaccinations have saved lives, so I guess they are hoping more boosters will further help?

    Personally, I will be disappointed if vaccines don't provide at least 12 months cover.

    Ref: Confirmed Cases v Deaths - Aug 24, 2021 / Gordon Smith / Observable (observablehq.com)



  • Registered Users Posts: 382 ✭✭Unicorn Milk Latte


    What?? Why would anyone want to test and quarantine vaccinated?

    The strategy of lots of tests, to find out who spreads Covid and isolate them is a valid way to deal with a pandemic as long as there are no vaccines.


    Once vaccines become widely available, wide spread testing becomes unnecessary. Vaccinated to vaccinated transmission is close to zero, unvaccinated to vaccinated transmission occurs in rare cases, but is almost always inconsequential for the vaccinated, as they are protected from getting seriously ill anyway.


    Testing makes sense in environments where vaccination is not an option - like for kids younger than 12.

    Even in scenarios where serious illness for vaccinated is a rare but real possibility - immunocompromised, cancer patients etc. - the most effective way to deal with it is not to go back to testing and isolation, but to use boosters.

    Tests do not prevent illness. Vaccines do.


    For the 18+ population, there is a choice: get vaccinated, or get Covid sooner or later. I strongly believe in freedom of choice, which also means to give the ones who choose to get Covid a chance to do just that, by re-opening, and ending non-pharmaceutical measures in a step-by-step, controlled manner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,941 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    Since the current ones don’t offer sterilised immunity and vaccinated still spread it, I think it’s a good way of stamping out transmission.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,714 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The strategy you're following is to be infected by SARS-COV2 and then handle it, it's not what most people are choosing but good luck with it.

    The government isn't going to start mass testing everybody else to try and get to zero covid, there will be boosters and nasal delivery vaccines that should reduce transmission further if they're even needed when they become available. Most will just get on with the yearly flu/covid vaccine regimen and go about their daily lives as before.



  • Registered Users Posts: 382 ✭✭Unicorn Milk Latte


    ...and when we get to the point where it's truly endemic - which is probably several years off - there will be partial background immunity even to new variants, and annual vaccination boosters may be unnecessary.

    According to what I've heard from virologists, future vaccines that are administered and work directly where the virus is active - nose and throat - meaning, future nasal spray vaccines, may be even more effective than today's vaccines, which are delivered to the blood stream.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,941 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    Yes on personal level, but I still think if we really want to stamp out transmission keep testing even the jabbed and quarantine them.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,690 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Updated mortality data for August from Israel



    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So seeing as how you love just dumping links with no context, what are to to surmise.... only getting 1 jab is best?

    Second jab causes 22x the mortality risk?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,385 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    Without knowing the % of the population who are vaccinated with either 1, 2 or 3 shots and are older than 60, the data is a bit meaningless - if anyone has that data please share.



  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭ohnohedidnt


    I think it's fair to say that that the single doses can ignored. If somebody is willing to get a vaccine, they'll have taken both doses unless there's a good reason, like severe reactions. So that would be a very small pool to begin with.

    In a population where 63% of the people are vaccinated (in reality much much higher in over 60's) and 62% of the deaths are vaccinated, it tells me all I need to know about the vaccine's effectiveness at preventing death. To be honest I'm surprised, I thought that was the only thing it was supposed to be good at.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,385 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    Huh, your math is very wrong if that is your conclusion...



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Its not meaningless

    Almost 400 deaths in 60+ years old should be impossible from a vaccine that’s 95% efficacious and 99% preventing hospitalisation

    There is roughly 1.2 million over 60s vaccinated in Israel

    At 95% efficacious only 60,000 of them should be able to get symptomatic covid and only 600 can end up in hospital with 99% preventing hospitalisation

    400 dying should be impossible or vaccines are not 95% efficacious and 99% preventing hospitalisation

    How many hospitalisations have Israel had in the vaccinated over 60s ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭Russman


    Where or when was a vaccine ever stated to be 95% & 99% efficacious Vs symptomatic & hospitalisations/death against the Delta variant ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,385 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    What % of over 60s are fully vaccinated? I think your assuming its 63%?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,690 ✭✭✭brickster69


    How many hospitalisations have Israel had in the vaccinated over 60s ?

    Not sure but the latest UK data gives similar % as Israel but hospitalisations are 50+

    Page 22

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1014926/Technical_Briefing_22_21_09_02.pdf

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭ohnohedidnt


    Did I even do any math? Care to elaborate with where you would put the vaccine efficacy at preventing death based on these numbers? 80% of over 60's in Israel are vaccinated. and they account for 62% of the deaths, 64% if you count single doses. If they were injected with saline the % of "vaccinated" deaths' could only climb 18%, I would call that a terrible excuse for a vaccine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 461 ✭✭HerrKapitan


    As expected 6 months shelf life for vaccines. The tracker app in France has 8 slots for vaccine entries so I think another 3 years of boosters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭candlegrease


    Does the EU covid digital cert expire 6 months after vaccination?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭ohnohedidnt


    In Israel it does, I'd imagine everyone will either follow suit, or just scrap it altogether.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    I'm assuming nearly 100% are fully vaccinated, because I'm only looking at vaccinated deaths

    Isreal has a population of 9,000,000, 15% are over 60

    So should be 1,3750,000 over 60 in Israel, I used 1,200,000 as I'm assuming nearly every over 60 in Isreal is vaccinated

    See the problem with the Pfizer trials is very obvious and it's a big problem.

    They got 95% efficacious at preventing symptomatic infection and 99% preventing hospitilisation, because they took it from an open demographic off all ages, it was an average from all the trialists regardless of age.

    Which is maybe correct if all humans are the same, but 20,30,40,50 years old that would be asymptomatic and would rarely end up in hospital are not the same as old people over 60,70,80 etc

    I would like to see the efficacious and hospitilsation figures from Pfizers trial on old frail people

    Because I do believe 95% efficacious and 99% prevent hospital is possible in under 50's who are healthy, but not a chance that's happening now in the real world with over 60's that are not healthy

    Example 1

    95% efficacious and 99% prevent hospital vaccine ( as Pfizer claimed from trials )

    10,000 nursing home residents who are old and frail

    Put Covid in the air, expose those 1000 residents

    1000/95/99 = 1 nursing home resident that ends up in hospital

    Example 2

    95% efficacious and 99% prevent hospital vaccine ( as Pfizer claimed from trials )

    10.000 college students, 18 -23 years old.

    Put Covid in the air, expose those 1000 students

    10,000/95/99 = 1 student ends up in hospital

    Does that look correct you? 1 resident in hospital after 10,000 of them exposed to virus :)

    I believe the Student one is for sure, very possible result, the nursing home one, lol :)

    Pfizer and the vaccine data tricked everyone, should have been demagraphic results of nursing home aged people or old people with co-mordities data given as end result, the young people in trial masked the real effictiveness ( the people that mostly die of the disease)

    Old frail people are not protected at 95% efficacious and 99% prevent hospital by the vaccines ( as Pfizer claimed from trials ) not even close

    1 resident in hospital after 10,000 exposed to virus, just lol



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,086 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @godzilla1989 the 95 and 99 are independent, not compounded.



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    How can it not be compounded? They are 2 different things? How do they calculate it then? 99% and ignore the 95%

    Example 1

    10,000 nursing home residents

    95% won't get symptomatic covid with the vaccine? Correct?

    That's 100 people that will get symptomatic covid?Correct Where does the 99% fit in there?

    Of those 100 people infected, they have a 99% chance of not ending up in hospital thanks to the vaccine training the body to fight it.

    100/99% = 1 person in hospital

    Do your example please with that 95 and 99 independent

    10,000 residents exposed to virus like I did, I'm intersted to see the results



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭Russman




  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    If your familiar with that stuff

    Can you do my example please

    Trial data say 95% efficacy at preventing symptomatic infection and 99% prevent hospitalisations

    10,000 people are exposed to covid

    How many end up in hospital?

    Should be easy



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,714 ✭✭✭✭astrofool




  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭godzilla1989


    Your saying all the 10,000 are infected?

    That's a case hospitilsation rate of 1% then if 10,000 = 100, makes sense as NPHET said in there documents 1% CHR was what they expected from cases in fully vaccinated population

    We had a case hospitilisation rate of 4.5% pre vaccines eg

    10,000 = 450 in hospital

    Doing them indepedently

    95% effiacy with 10,000 = 500 infected

    99% prevent hospitilsation once infected with 10,000 = 100 in hospital

    That still doesn't explain why you wouldn't compound them?

    10,000 people ( 95% efficacy)

    500 get infected

    1% CHR as your provided me with 100 figure

    500/1%

    = 5 end up in hospital

    That still means we can expose 10,000 people to Covid in a nursing home and 5 will end up in hospital

    Does it not?

    Does that look realistic? :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,086 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @godzilla1989 wrote:

    They are 2 different things? 

    Yes.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,714 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    No, it's not realistic, but I'm unsure what to say next that would correct your path, it's gone a bit like this:




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