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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    You just never know what industries Boardsies work for. I reckon Akrasia works for Shell as Head of P.R.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber



    Question for you 'Banana', do you use fossil fuels? Do you practice what you preach?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    'Sir' (he obviously cares about ostentatious titles) David Attenborough probably has more air miles behind him than the entirety of those on this entire public forum (and that is many).

    When multi-millionaires and elitists in general start preaching, I start not listening. It's my punk instinct.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The distinction between calling it hurricane Ida or ETC Ida is one without a difference. It was the same storm



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I picked my avatar because it was one of the few available on the old site and I liked to play Quake

    You picked your avatar out of the trillions of images available on the internet, or you made it yourself. because want to make fun of the idea that CO2 is a pollutant. If that's not your intention, then you're sending a different message to whatever you're intending to send.


    And I didn't say you don't post references. You post lots of references to charts and data, but you very rarely post references to published research. You post data points and then infer conclusions from those datapoints. but datapoints on their own do not tell the full picture, there needs to be methodological analysis on those data, and that is why peer reviewed research is important



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Oneiric 3 said: “ Question for you 'Banana', do you use fossil fuels? Do you practice what you preach?

    Nabber said: “Question for you 'Banana', do you use fossil fuels? Do you practice what you preach?

    Bruce Wayne and Batman two personas you’d never see together.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    I can use it fine. You did include an image above the “quote” which does blow the site is unusable line out of the water in my mind.

    This is not an attack on you personally;

    but The Stone Age didnt end for the lack of stone!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Speaking of references to peer-reviewed papers, I'm still struggling to find the reason why 337 occurrences of severe wet-bulb temperature events from the end of last century were omitted from that paper that you referenced. I asked you a few times if you knew, seeing as you were the one who endorsed the paper by quoting it in the first place, but still no answer. Maybe you're still working on it.

    Here, let me show you what I'm talking about.

    They report that:

    Our findings indicate that reported occurrences of extreme TW have increased rapidly at weather stations and in reanalysis data over the last four decades and that parts of the subtropics are very close to the 35°C survivability limit, which has likely already been reached over both sea and land. These trends highlight the magnitude of the changes that have taken place as a result of the global warming to date. 

    Yet, just in their Materials and Methods section they state:

    We additionally eliminate HadISD station data that fail any one of the following meteorological and climatological tests. Tests are listed in the order implemented, with the fraction of HadISD 31+°C readings removed at each successive step shown in parentheses:

    ....


    3. A TW extreme occurring in 1979–1993 is greater than the maximum in 2003–2017 (67/10,138).

    ...


    10. A TW extreme before 2001 is higher than any value recorded since 2001 (270/8864).

    This is their graph, not mine...

    Fig. 2 Global trends in extreme humid heat.

    (A to D) Annual global counts of TW exceedances above the thresholds labeled on the respective panel, from HadISD (black, right axes, with units of station days) and ERA-Interim grid points (gray, left axes, with units of grid-point days). We consider only HadISD stations with at least 50% data availability over 1979–2017. Correlations between the series are annotated in the top left of each panel, and dotted lines highlight linear trends. (E) Annual global maximum TW in ERA-Interim. (F) The line plot shows global mean annual temperature anomalies (relative to 1850–1879) according to HadCRUT4 (40), which we use to approximate each year’s observed warming since preindustrial; circles indicate HadISD station occurrences of TW exceeding 35°C, with radius linearly proportional to global annual count, measured in station days.


    If I started removing high Arctic sea-ice extent years from that same period and claimed that the trend is flat or rising I think you'd be the first to question it (and rightly so). Yet, this one seems to have slipped through the net. Now maybe I'm missing something glaringly obvious, so if I am I'll gladly fess up to it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,709 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Smacks of desperation when you look at the historical record of big freezes in that part of the world. It appears now that every possible weather event will be used to push the extreme alarmist agenda:(



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I don't know what their exact reasoning was, but all of the 17 validation steps are there to remove outliers and unreliable data from the dataset. The researchers must have been of the view that the data that showed much greater temperature anomalies than their decadal averages were more likely to be errors.

    The first one removed 0.64% of the records with a TW above 31c, so not really worth bothering with

    the other one you mentioned was clearly to remove errors. The hottest ever dewpoints ever recorded have all been measured since 2001. 35c being recorded in 2003, so it is more likely that a station as an error with it's temperature or humidity reading, than it accidentally recorded the hottest ever TW event and forgot to tell anyone about it

    Also, they removed more hot records from later in the series than both of these two adjustments combined, so you can't say that they're just cherrypicking records from the early part of the time series to force a trend

    The paper did go through peer review, so the methodology has been validated by other scientists



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    So that makes two of us. Surely if a paper is to pass peer-review, reasons for such omissions should be clearly explained, rather than leaving it to the reader to make assumptions.

    Where does it say dewpoints have been higher since 2001? And where does it say they removed more hot records from later than from before? Is that your opinion or a fact?

    It all seems a very sloppy paper.

    Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber



    You have used half a quote that is not apt for this situation. I question whether you read the posts you are commenting on.

    I never said the site was unusable. I said the layout was sh1te. I didn't wanna quote the whole of a post in response. This seems to be another case of you distracting, like that time you were offended that on page ~18 of a weather forum discussing climate change you called out that AGW wasn't spelled out. We got an introduction to your accreditation as a graduate of Harvard. Fun times.

    Perhaps what's in your mind is best not shared with others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    I didn’t add an additional quote at all. Perhaps you should smell what your shovelling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    All very good, but you didn't answer the question. Do you practice what you preach regarding the use fossil fuels?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Here is a 17 minute presentation by Jim Steele on his youtube channel in response to a recent World Weather Attribution (WWA) report that attributes this Summers floods in Germany to climate change and outlines how this is spun throughout the media and why their claims are wrong.

    For those of you whose time is at a premium start at 2 minutes in for 2 minutes.


    The WWA organisation engaged in sophistry using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation as the basis for their claims, for those you value such the attribution study is NOT peer reviewed, however, look at how they used the term "peer review" to give them an air of legitimacy while leaving an escape hatch at the end.

    The observed rainfall amounts in the Ahr/Erft and the Belgian part of the Meuse catchment broke historically observed rainfall records by large margins. In regions of that size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of trends is challenging and thus pushes the limits of what current methods of extreme event attribution are designed for.

    Based on the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, it is claimed the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1C of temperature rise and this value is widely used in computer modelling.  Sounds nice in theory, until it is applied to the real world where Eurasian total column of water vapour (TCWV) capacity is 3% (Atmospheric Moisture Content over Europe and the Northern Atlantic - Wypych 2018).  Undeterred by reality the WWA claimed:

    The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 °C cooler climate has increased by a factor between 1.2 and 9 for the 1-day event in the large region. The increase is again similar for the 2-day event.


    This was the basis of the sensationalised headlines around the world by media organisations such as the Guardian and others such as RTE that ascribe to the same dramatic language when the the subject of climate change is mentioned.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I was thinking I read that before. I note they now just inserted the NYC flooding into the previous article. Just copy and paste from one weather event to another. Whatever you do, don't analyse actual data of the event.

    This article was updated Sept. 2, 2021, with the New York City flooding.

    I note they mention the 7 inches of rain in one day as if it's something extraordinary. They never mentioned the 8.28 inches from 1882. They did, of course, remember to post the usual begging letter at the end.

    On The Conversation, we help make the connections clear. Thanks to our global network of 90,000 experts, we have been able to show people just how intertwined the climate crisis is with the major events shaping the modern world. But to keep going, we need the support of readers. DONATE NOW.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    The Conversation U.S. is committed to transparency and credibility. Authors are allowed to write only on subjects in which they have proven expertise. They must sign a disclosure statement outlining any relevant funding or affiliations. We disclose all of The Conversation U.S.’s funders on our homepage and elsewhere. Our goals are summed up in our editorial charter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    'Not for profit and independent'.

    "Each edition of The Conversation is an independent not-for-profit or charity funded by its university members, government and other grant awarding bodies, corporate partners, and reader donations"

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,462 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Would imagine 2021 is rapidly overtaking 2020 with the damage tolls from Ida looking like top ten material.

    Even so, the Ida damage in Louisiana and around the northeast U.S. pales in comparison to the 1900 Galveston hurricane disaster or the 1926 and 1928 Florida hurricane impacts (in today's dollars those would both be tens or hundreds of billions of dollars).

    Thus the basic premise of recent year high impact weather events is always going to be in the shadow of those past years, what is really significant is that there might have been an era of relative tranquility in the 1960s to 1980s between eras of higher impacts, although of course you can find counter-examples in that supposed quieter period (would say more precisely 1962 to 1988 because 1961 and 1989 had high impact hurricane strikes, also within that quiet period are such events as Camille (1969) and the second worst tornado outbreak in 1974. Also Hurricane Allen 1980 was fairly costly in south Texas.

    All these things are hard to compare because of different warning systems, different construction standards, and growing populations (which expose more people and buildings to impacts, that cannot be pinned on climate change).

    I remain unconvinced that we are entering an era of accelerating weather extremes. The test for me is always the "back and forth" test from a given year, do you hit a stronger extreme going forward or going backwards?

    If the 1900 hurricane hit Galveston again, it might be only a bit worse than Ike (2008). Or it might be considerably worse, hard to say when you're talking about extreme winds and a storm surge that could threaten even today's much better protection.

    If the 1925 super-tornado outbreak happened today, death tolls would undoubtedly be lower despite perhaps double the population in the path, damage on the other hand would be catastrophic, no building codes protect much against EF4 or EF5 tornadic winds.

    People might also want to google the September 1821 hurricane that hit NYC directly and speculate about modern damage levels from that sort of event. Opinions vary as to whether it would be billions or merely millions of dollars of damage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Future problems around the weather events are going to revolve around energy or rather the lack of it. Takes a while to get production back online in the US. This is the grid from today showing our lack of weather in Ireland.

    The narrative calls for us to transition from electricity generation that is matched to demand (plus a 30% buffer supply) to 100% uncontrolled electricity generation by switching from directly consuming primary sources of energy (oil,gas, coal) to secondary (electricity), the problem is that magical thinking dominates in the media and many people are not aware of the serious trade-offs to be made switching primary generation to random sources like wind and solar.

    From the FT.

    Consumers in the UK and continental European are facing a growing price crunch for energy as wholesale electricity costs surpassed their highest ever level on Monday, boosted by low wind generation and the rally in natural gas to record heights. Benchmark wholesale electricity prices in Germany for delivery next year reached more than €90 per megawatt hour, or roughly double the level at which they started the year, surpassing the previous record hit in summer 2008 when oil prices were approaching $150 a barrel.


    Gas prices in the UK and continental Europe, which have hit a series of record highs in recent weeks, also rose with day-ahead prices at the UK National Balancing Point, a virtual trading venue for natural gas, reaching £1.31 per therm, more than four times higher than this time last year.


    Make sure to turn off the lights and unplug everything kids, energy is going to be very expensive this year. 1,2,3,4,5. The problems are being driven by current policy to phase out coal plants which are switching to gas driving demand higher. Subsidising random energy has created a perverse incentive to build wind turbines and the island has a nameplate capacity of 5510 MW installed and today there is barely anything being produced across the British Isles, the problem is so bad the UK has had to bring a coal plant back online this evening. Since a modern country needs a reliable grid coal and gas plants will have to be subsidised heavily in future to make up the differences when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. Current battery technology is only good enough to balancing loads caused by sudden drops in random energy output, it cannot handle a wind drought. If you are looking closely at what is happening in Europe, Germany is also shutting and phasing out its coal and nuclear plants and our plan is is to build an inter-connector to France to tap into their nuclear energy driven electricity, guess who else has the same idea. The magical thinking is that Ireland will cover the south-west coast with wind turbines to supply France with surplus electricity but when electricity demand peaks after sunset we will import from France, guess which way the pricing structure will work!


    In future lack of weather or too much weather will be a problem for us electricity consumers across the British Isles.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    A sign of things to come? Back in June, by democratic vote, the Swiss rejected an amendment on the Federal Act on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, but restrictions are going through anyway.

    Swiss climate experts propose personal CO2 budget - SWI swissinfo.ch

    Swiss climate experts propose the introduction of an individual CO2 budget so Switzerland can reach its goal of “net zero greenhouse gas emissions” by 2050.

    The central premise is that all goods would have two prices – one in Swiss francs and the other in CO2 emissions. This would factor the amount of CO2 released in everything from sausage making to short-haul flights.

    Anyone who uses up their state-allocated credit too early would have to buy new emission rights.

    This strategy would allow Switzerland to meet its climate goals in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement despite a “No” vote in a referendum on the government’s CO2 law in June, according to the climate experts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    " In future lack of weather or too much weather will be a problem for us electricity consumers across the British Isles."


    No such place as the British Isles, but then again, academics are petty and retain it anyway despite defying logic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    This is not surprising to me the environmental movement is deeply authoritarian at its core. It has an unquenchable will to power that cannot be satisfied and will not be denied easily by democracy. Today the eco-mentalists are trying to enforce a new 21st century prohibition era by restricting who, where, when and how energy can be consumed. 

    In Ireland look into the circumstances of how the climate emergency act was passed in Ireland, most of the TDs were missing!!   That law has been enacted for purposes that are anti-democratic. It is an enabling tool for the eco-mentalists and the special interests behind them. So far Irish judges have steered clear of this and the climate quango have enough people on it to ensure the right political consensus decision is reached.  Of concern is the "human rights" court in Europe having the power to decide such. How lawfare is abused to circumvent democracy is discussed by Andy May in a recent blog post.

    Bergkamp has written:

    “The veil of human rights cannot conceal the climate movement’s agenda to set democracy aside. The rule of law, not of lawyers, must be restored, and the ECtHR [European Court of Human Rights] needs to become an apolitical, law-abiding arbitrator of real human rights disputes, instead of a judge of policy disputes dressed up as human rights issues.” (Bergkamp & Brouwer, 2021)


    Notice the concern creeping in the Irish administration as a combination of accelerating energy costs and the prospect of electricity blackouts this Winter season loom. If you watch carefully warnings from eirgrid and others have been making the media in small sidebars over the past few months. 


    Severe weather events have always caused loss of life and economic loss and always will global warming or not. Technological improvements in weather forecasting and infrastructure provision have massively reduced the death toll due to these events. The headline costs are going to rise due to a combination of inflation, increased population and more complex infrastructure. There are no discernible trends in frequency of such events despite over 100 years of warming and the reporting system is such today that every little bushfire gets reported around the world.

    The people pushing the global warming narrative do not take seriously the consequence of basing our energy system on inefficient weather dependent random generation sources. We are mostly blinded by having an existing infrastructure in place today that shields us from the technological and economic shortcomings of random energy generation, all the while the reliable infrastructure is being dismantled.  There are consequences for the pursuit of this policy every bit as great as the oil shocks of the 1970s and if not careful we will end up the power infrastructure problems that plague South Africa today. Within a decade weather forecasting is going to take on a new dimension as people plan their energy use around it.

    Post edited by Pa ElGrande on

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Jim Steele? From the CO2 coalition, that Jim Steele and the Heritage Foundation? How much did the Koch brothers pay him for this youtube video?

    Jim is not a qualified climate scientist, he has no training or expertise in meteorology or atmospheric physics and he has never had a single peer reviewed article published that I can find

    Compare this to the WWA group, who haven't had this particular study peer reviewed (yet) but their methodology has been peer reviewed and validated by experts who know an awful lot more about this science than Jim Steele

    In this video, his criticism of the use of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is not valid because he agrees that it is a valid physical property of the capacity of the air to hold more moisture as it warms up. The paper he cites says that on average, central europe doesn't reach this capacity due to local variables and the convergence of air masses and distance from a source of warm water to provide the humidity. However, none of this contradicts the idea that when there is a convergence of weather conditions (synoptics) that the full force of the Clausius-Clapeyron effect isn't going to cause increased rainfall intensity as ssts and air temperatures increase.

    Remember these are extreme events caused by unlikely confluences of multiple conditions. What climate change is doing, is adding capacity to hold more moisture to the air, so when these conditions are met, there is heavier rainfall, and it is also making certain rare atmospheric thresholds more likely to occur

    In that 18 minute video, it was 90% ranting about the media and 'Orwellian newspeak', and accusing the Media of deliberately trying to manipulate the narrative, which is pretty galling coming from a man who has nailed his colours to the mast of conservative anti scientific 'think tanks' and 'greenwashing' campaigns like the CO2 coalition that literally denies that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas, are willfully misinforming and funding global climate change denialism campaigns for the purpose of protecting the interests of the billionaires who stand to lose from increased regulations on CO2 emissions



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    7 inches of rain falling in NYC in one day is extraordinary

    It's not unprecedented, but it's certainly not Ordinary weather for the location

    And yet it happened twice in a week from independent weather systems

    But you go off and find some more goalposts to shift as you usually do.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Standard attack the man ignore the ball tactics. I expect nothing less and we have always been at war with Eastasia.

    The people behind the WWA paper in question use the 7% value in their climate modelling, as you can see from the research provided central Europe never reaches those values, so when they base their models on invalid data any conclusions they derive are on that basis are wrong. The paper in question is not peer reviewed and the people behind it have acknowledged it pushes the limits of what current methods of extreme event attribution are designed for

    I will leave it to the reader to interpret what the authors of that paper mean by that line as far as I'm concerned the fact they rushed out the paper and did not subject it to peer review, this is scientism used for the sole purpose of generating publicity and likely funds leveraging a complicit fear mongering media to get advertising clicks.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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