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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021
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Little lightning activity overnight only few isolated sporadic strikes showing up but certainly plenty of rain, 29mm here since late last night, report from Castlebar of a storm with heavy flooding rain from Oscar Bravo and just a couple of sferics along the E. Probably too messy a profile to become electrified, too saturated perhaps. Getting into the low 20's today with a very high Dp up to 18C
Today parameters are there again for lightning but as convective weather said very little Deep Layer Shear so limiting development and if storms do form probably pulse in nature. Looks like some very heavy rain in places.
From earlier.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 09 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 10 Sep 2021
ISSUED 07:13 UTC Thu 09 Sep 2021
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper low covers the UK and Ireland on Thursday, leading to a more widespread risk of showers and some thunderstorms compared with Wednesday. Early showery rain and embedded thunderstorm activity within a zone from Northern Ireland across to northern England will lift north into southern Scotland through the morning, although in general any lightning activity will probably decay. The main focus will be related to diurnal heating beneath cool mid-levels, resulting in 500-900 J/kg MLCAPE developing in many parts of England, Wales and Ireland. Numerous heavy showers and some thunderstorms are likely to develop, particularly where aided by orographic forcing and low-level convergence.
Some modest flow aloft across England in particular may allow some organisation/cell longevity, whereas weak shear over Ireland will tend to result in mostly pulse mode. Where the steering flow becomes near-parallel to convergence zones, multiple cells may train over the same areas and this brings a significant risk of local flooding - of particular concern is a corridor from N / NE Wales through NW England (especially given the number of urban areas in NW England) and also parts of the north Pennines towards southern Scotland. A MDT has been introduced where coverage of lightning may be greater overall, although an area of showery rain could move through this area from the south during the afternoon and limit surface heating for a while. The strongest cells could produce some marginally-severe hail.
Thunderstorms will slowly fade through the evening hours, but still possible across northern England and southern Scotland into the first part of the night. Meanwhile attention may turn to the central/eastern English Channel into SE England where a few showers and weak thunderstorms could approach during the evening/night as a shortwave lifts northeast. Some interest also exists for a few sporadic lightning strikes over the North Sea close to eastern Scotland during the night hours, shifting north towards the Northern Isles.
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New weather warning from Met Eireann, signs of convection building on Satellite.
Status Yellow - Rain and Thunderstorm warning for Leinster, Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Connacht, Tipperary, Waterford
Met Éireann Weather Warning
Heavy, potentially thundery downpours breaking out this afternoon and evening will produce some localised flooding.
Valid: 13:28 Thursday 09/09/2021 to 21:00 Thursday 09/09/2021
Issued: 13:28 Thursday 09/09/2021
Northern Ireland Warnings
Yellow - Thunderstorm Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry
UK Met Office Weather Warning (www.metoffice.gov.uk)
Heavy showers and thunderstorms on Thursday have the potential to bring surface water flooding in a few places, and disruption to travel.
Valid: 10:00 Thursday 09/09/2021 to 20:00 Thursday 09/09/2021
Issued: 10:20 Tuesday 07/09/2021
Updated: 10:25 Wednesday 08/09/2021
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Last 24 hrs detected sferics on the ATD system, a few early morning strikes detected.
Was talking to people down in Kenmare that said they had a lot of thunder early Thursday morning that was not picked up.
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Parameters for Convective weather later Sunday and for the first few days of the week, mentions of hail and thunderstorm potential on forecasts for Monday and Tuesday, maybe a bit Weds also. Cold upper pool in over Ireland and with the warm SST's and upper vorticity with Jet nearby and movement of Lp's and troughs all aiding instability. Bit of a change from the prolonged mild settled spell. Locally heavy squally showers possible on Monday especially along Atlantic coastal counties and possibly moving inland a bit.
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The band of rain is making good progress the country at the moment. Looks like a squall like feature is developing in the midlands, as the cooler air is forcing the much warmer air to ascend rapidly and condense.
Post edited by highdef on1 -
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Been an age since we have seen some big Congestus or Cumulonimbus, CAPE values look half decent for some isolated thunderstorms and hail possible. Most possibility looks to be along the Atlantic coastal counties and in the Western half of the country. Possible for some heavy localized showers. Sunny spells also. Fresh along the coasts.
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