Murder at the Cottage | Sky
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Not the first time we have seen that Guard mentioned. Interesting development. Who knows what he will come out with on that interview tomorrow.
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The drugs angle is fascinating, given that Mizen Head where Sophie lived has been at the centre of a few escapades concerning Ireland's 'cocaine coast.'
Some people will say, what are the chances that an eccentric person who lived a few miles from Sophie and who had a history of violence against women wasn't involved in her murder? Which is fair enough, but then you have to also consider: what are the chances that Sophie—who lived on Mizen Head and who had complained previously about drugs in the area (with regard to Alfie Lyons specifically, I believe?)—was not killed in relation to drug trafficking? Or at least, a smaller operation that she had reported.
It deserves consideration at least. It's also hard to emphasise the vast amounts of money involved in drug trafficking off Mizen Head.
2007: €440 million worth of cocaine washed up on Mizen Head after a smuggling attempt gone wrong.
2008: €650 million worth of cocaine seized off Mizen Head.
2014: €350 million worth of cocaine seized 200 miles off Mizen Head
From the Independent: "In seven years, three drug seizures off the Cork coast alone – all of which involved ocean-going yachts which had visited the Caribbean and Central America – accounted for more than €1bn worth of cocaine."
It's worth noting, in my opinion, that one of the men involved in the 2007 fiasco (from the smugglers' point of view, anyway) was a former Metropolitan Police drug squad detective. So it's very much within the bounds of possibility that a member of the Garda Síochána might have been involved in a potential operation being run in the vicinity of Sophie's home. As @tinytobe mentions above: 'This is one theory I also have: Sophie has seen something and also heard something that "she shouldn't have" as they say in the crime/drug business and reported that to the Guards, not knowing that they were corrupt and also in it over their heads.'
It could explain the rumours of a Bantry detective's involvement. He might not have even personally killed Sophie, but he could have come out to the house after the fact to be given a run-down by whoever had been involved.
This scenario could explain both the presumed time of death (the neighbour who heard what they thought were an animal's howls at 2 or 3 a.m) and the speeding Ford Fiesta seen tearing away near the scene of the crime around 7.30 (someone, possibly a guard, who had been called to the scene after her murder took place?)
It might also explain the brutality of Sophie's murder—the face smashed beyond all recognition. Drug traffickers are not nice people. They don't care about inflicting the maximum amount of agony and terror. The cruelty and the punishment is the point. 'Snitches get stitches' etc. (I'm too afraid of the results to google search but maybe someone could look into whether the manner of her murder ties in with such a mentality.) And they could be confident enough that the guards are too corrupt to do anything about it. Hence Alfie's alleged response on learning of the identity of which guard was coming out to inspect the scene: 'Good, I know him.'
Again, this is all speculation, but again you have to look at the balance of probability... there are drugs in that area, lots of them. (Admittedly, not sure what the case was in the 90s, but Sophie had reported drugs in her area to the guards). Violence is inextricably linked with the drugs trade.
Only 6 months before Sophie's death, Veronica Guerin was shot to death in her car by Dublin druglords due to her crime reportage on the drug scene.
Alfie allegedly had a bandaged hand on the morning after the murder.
Someone had been using Sophie's house while she was away. According to some people, Sophie's housekeeper said her employer believed it was Alfie.
If you're running an operation out of your own house, might you be tempted to run it out of a house you know to be empty and right next to your own? You might even need the extra space to house your associates.
The guards' incompetence in this case veers into the downright sinister. No one can possibly be that bad at their jobs, unless they have an ulterior motive. Their carry-on is more than hapless tomfoolery, of this I am convinced. (Whether that means one of their own was directly involved, peripherally involved, or they just wanted to get Bailey by any means necessary.)
And finally... the €440m cocaine drugs haul took place in Dunlough Bay, which is overlooked by Three Castle Head. This is where Sophie went walking on her last day alive. Her neighbours reported that she returned from this walk looking pale and shaken. The White Lady nonsense aside, what if Sophie saw something that day? Did she witness something to do with the drugs trade? Did she neglect to mention what she saw to her neighbours, but inwardly resolved to confront the perpetrators if she saw anything untoward around her own house that night? Her bravery and defiance have been well documented, perhaps she didn't realise the danger when she tried to put a stop to whatever was going on.
The gate being left open or closed and the role it played in the dispute between Alfie and Sophie also takes on a weighty significance if the drugs angle is taken into account. Sophie wanted it closed, Alfie wanted it open. Sophie was found by the gate. And while most reports describe her as having been chased there, a 1996 article from the Irish Times describes her as most likely having been dragged there.
"It appears that Ms Toscan du Plantier was dragged from the house down the pathway to the boreen below some time late on Saturday night Sunday morning. She was beaten viciously around the head and upper body area, at least 11 times with a blunt instrument perhaps a poker."
Her housekeeper had claimed a poker was missing from the house.
If a woman is dragged from her house to a gate and viciously beaten to death there with an implement from her own home, it makes me believe that this was no mere spur-of-the-moment crime of passion. That this was a purposeful, cold-blooded, intentional killing with a chilling cruelty and viciousness behind it. In other words, there was a very real motive. They not only wanted to kill her, they wanted to destroy her in a way that conveyed a message to anyone else who might have otherwise been entertaining the same notions as Sophie Toscan du Plantier.
Edit: I know marijuana is more likely to be at the centre of this story than cocaine, but it's all relevant when it comes to the thriving drugs scene off an isolated peninsula where barely any people live and where a woman just so happened to get her face smashed in beyond recognition.
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I honestly find your description a realistic and hypothetical possibility.
The thing is that if one was running a drug operation in the area, and the Guards are in it as well the biggest threat to such an undertaking would be foreigners seeing or hearing something. ( tourists would be there too short, to take notice of that.... )
Both Sophy and Ian had one thing in common: They were not from there and whoever was running a lucrative and profitable drug operation would always have any foreigner living there or staying there longer, as the biggest threats to their operation "on the radar screen".
As you wrote, I would also agree that Bailey knew very much what happened. He was a journalist, he had sources and he knew how to connect the dots and would have been a threat to any drug operation. Sophie didn't she was more the naïve one, from a financial strong background, and had no idea how drug trade would work or be run or who could be in it, not even that the Guards could be corrupt.
The open question here is why did Bailey as a journalist never write about the drug business in the area? Would he have been scared writing about that? At least then public opinion in the area would see the possibility of the murder connected to drugs.
What I find very hard to imagine is that Bailey, after a night out in the pub drinking, and even playing an instrument, returning home with Jules, and out of not reason or motive getting up in the middle of the night, carrying a brick with him, walking for around 1 hour over to Sophie's house, killing her, and walking all the way back, blood all over him and never being seen, neither by Jules, nor by her daughters. And how could Bailey have been sure, that Sophie was alone in the house that night and not had a lover over?
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Evidence missing, witnesses made lie, the Gardai fcuked up majorly or covering up for one of their own?
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He can't say too much for legal reasons. Either enough to make people come forward, or enough to frighten people from coming forward
Could go either way....
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The gate was not lost. It was disposed of after being tested. It was offered back to the family but they declined. Even IB backs this account.
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I think the theory you're describing sounds similar to my thoughts of this. It would also explain why Alfie stated that he didn't hear anything that fateful night. Also Alfie would have known if Sophie was alone at night, or had a lover over....... Apparently one of the Guards also owned the described Fiesta.
The house / houses would be so remote, it's also the perfect location regarding any kind of drug operation. And the only other neighbour is blind? Even if Alfie didn't have a key to Sophie's house, the lock could easily be picked? If Sophie's house was used in her absence then one must have kept track of Sophie's planned comings and goings to Ireland? Maybe the trip to Ireland was unexpected to the ones running the drugs? Thus Sophie has not only heard or seen something, she'd been there at the wrong time......
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I like your theories. I think we are getting closer...
I'll counter it: what if sophie had complained of drug dealing in the area and a certain garda dealt with it? She would have been on his radar then. Perhaps he paid her an early morning visit under the guise of checking she was OK, updating on any drug raids... But actually wanted sex and was rejected...
We know the rest.
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As @irishspiderplant wrote:
If a woman is dragged from her house to a gate and viciously beaten to death there with an implement from her own home, it makes me believe that this was no mere spur-of-the-moment crime of passion. That this was a purposeful, cold-blooded, intentional killing with a chilling cruelty and viciousness behind it. In other words, there was a very real motive. They not only wanted to kill her, they wanted to destroy her in a way that conveyed a message to anyone else who might have otherwise been entertaining the same notions as Sophie Toscan du Plantier
Yes, there have been unconfirmed rumors that one of her casual lovers was possibly a Guard as well, however I don't think that rejection would ever be a motive for such a gruesome kind of murder. This kind of murder was not a spur of the moment crime of passion. This kind of cruelty was also to send a message to anybody interested in sticking their noses into other's business.
I would also largely guess that many locals at least vaguely knew that there was a drug business going on, even though they may not have known names.
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I should note that I'm not sure the garda in the article I linked is the same John O'Donnell mentioned by IB. Thats why I was asking what date he was rumoured to have died, as the incident in the article I linked is after 01/01/09
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No, it's a different person. I know that for certain
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Interesting perspective... Not sure I agree.
I think it was spur of the moment in intense rage. It was opportunist as the perp used what items were available to hand. I think gangland type murders usually have a more typical weapon, at the very least a knife.
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The open question here is why did Bailey as a journalist never write about the drug business in the area? Would he have been scared writing about that?
it’s possible he was involved. He was known to pay visits to Alfie.
That’s gives him another possible motive
we be interesting if that’s brought up on VM
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wanted to destroy her in a way that conveyed a message to anyone else who might have otherwise been entertaining the same notions as Sophie Toscan du Plantier...
This kind of cruelty was also to send a message to anybody interested in sticking their noses into other's business.
But how does this work if the true motive for the killing isn't gnerally known, and the murder is generally blamed on Ian Bailey?
It's like the theory that a criminal gang had Jill Dando murdered as a warning to the media not to be poking around in their business. Well that's not much use if they don't make it generally known why and by whom she was killed...
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IB’s involvement is something I have considered (from the drugs angle).
Not that he was directly involved but that he may have been present or adjacent when it happened.
i also wonder whether one or more people turned up at Sophie’s door. They knock, she opens the door. They say we’re going to take a walk, she puts on her boots. Either they intended to dispose of her or teach her a lesson about sticking her nose in, but the situation got away from them... maybe she made a run for it and the situation escalated.
And before any English journalist starts sneering about the ‘unlikeliness’ of such a scenario, it wouldn’t be the first time on this island a woman was walked away from her home by a group of people so they could kill her for ‘snitching.’
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Pretty sure the "gardening" he did for Alfie could cover this one 😂
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Exactly.
what plants was Alfie growing ..?
”gardening” indeed
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I've oddly had a similar thought that not only one, but more people showed up at her door. I've also considered that if it was more, one could have been a woman, just to win her trust for going for a walk, or going somewhere.
One guess I have is that the murder site would have always been outside, as outside would most likely have left fewer traces, fingerprints, signs of a possible struggle, than inside. However there would have to have been the issue of noise, a woman shouting for her life, and Alfie as their neighbour not hearing anything? This thought automatically leads to some neighbour's involvement.
If there would have been more people involved in the murder, wouldn't they have carried the body somewhere else? Or disposed of the body somewhere in the sea?
And then there is also the question of the role of the caretaker and the possible use of Sophie's house for drug business. Was the caretaker in it as well? Or would they have to be very careful not to leave any evidence in the house for neither the caretaker nor Sophie to find? It's also entirely possible that Sophie found some form of odd evidence in her house and called the Guards, and a Guard in the mentioned Fiesta came knocking at her door? ( however that would have been too traceable to figure out in terms of the call? and the car? thus the Guard used the Fiesta...? )
If the Guards were it it, then it's also entirely possible that any sort of drug shipment could have happened in broad daylight on a deserted coast line, maybe only under the guise of possible winter time fog?
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If there would have been more people involved in the murder, wouldn't they have carried the body somewhere else? Or disposed of the body somewhere in the sea?
Not if they wanted her body to communicate a message.
As well as that, she was so entangled in the briars... i can see a recklessness taking hold in the dark and deciding to just leave her there. Particularly if you know the guards are already on your side. And especially if killing her on the spot wasn’t part of the original plan. They might have been bringing her down to the gate in order to make her get into a car.
ive also seen a few references on this thread as regards why wasn’t she chucked over a cliff? I don’t know if many people have been down that way... I have and I’m not sure exactly how this would be achieved. I don’t think there are any convenient coastal roads overlooking a cliff. You’d have to lug a body down a mulchy track in order to gain access to the cliffs, or at least be trundling about in a car, all of which makes the likelihood of you being spotted much higher, especially as bodies off the coast tend to turn up eventually.
this is the most far fetched thread I’ve tugged on but I wonder whether the bottle of wine was supposed to play a role in a civilised chat with Sophie. ‘You’re a reasonable woman’ etc... obviously this didn’t work out so it was disposed of. but I don’t really buy into that aspect.
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That is true, the murderer wanted to communicate a message. Also the murderer could have strangled her, and he wouldn't have had blood all over himself. I think blood on the clothes of the murderer was unavoidable, if the brick was used. I am also wondering where the brick and the stone was from? Do we know it was from the property? How would the murder have known a brick or the stone of a certain size was there and found it at night? ( assuming the murder took place at night time )
I think the murder was planned at least during the short time frame she was present. Some voice she must have recognized must have been at least at the door and if it wasn't recognizable, than he would have introduced her because of a possible phone call to the Guards as a Guard?
Did she have a landline / phone installed there? Was there ever a break up of all traceable calls during her stay there?
Regarding the possible disposing of the body, there are some "good" locations around the area. A drive north to Dunmanus Castle, then west and you're at a coastline. Quite possibly lonely at 3 or 4 am at night. If not that, a drive to Mizen Head would also have been a "good choice". Just near the parking space at the visitor center would have been an option with the possibility option that the body would never have washed up? ( however I doubt that, regarding all the streams there ) Also the murderer knew that the corrupted Guards were to a certain degree on his side....
But apparently the murderer didn't want to have Sophie disappear without a trace, it was that she was to be found in the state she was in.
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There is no suggestion in the Sheridan doc she was dragged to the gate. "
we came to the conclusion that she may have walked from the house"Detective Gilligan in Sheridan doc part 2 approx 8 mins 10 secs in0 -
Another mystery there. There was Sophie's blood on the door and there was her blood on the gates. So she must have moved injured between the two. Or the blood was deliberately smeared there by the murderer? Maybe the murderer with the blood on himself climbed over the gates and thus the blood got there?
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As an investigative journalist, Bailey would have had his beak in everything.. Even after a heavy session he was up early watching the natives jumping into the sea and mixing with the people afterwards.. Most people would just groan and roll over in bed, Not Bailey..
Then, the biggest murder in the country occurs right on his doorstep..
Assuming the murder wasn't his own handywork, he would have gone into overdrive, hitting up every contact he had, this would make him 'The Man'
Don't forget, he was the first person to volunteer his blood samples and hair samples to the Investigators. Knowing the crime scene was a bloodbath, he was super confident his elimination as a person of interest would be guaranteed.
During the following days, weeks and months, Bailey would have meticulously gone through all the alibi's of the natives, the French Connection, and the many other potential suspects. He would also have the benefit of the local gossip going around the town, the rumours, the whispers, the finger pointing....
Bailey knew about the drugs operation, and was probably a good customer of the product. He would have known how intense the Alfie Lyons / STP disagreements were (or not). He claimed that Sophie was 'a popular girl' whilst still married.. How did he deduce this? Did the neighbours let it slip that she had several Gentlemen friends calling to her...? Baileys network of contacts would have been vast.
Did the Gards want Bailey out of the way because of what he knew?
Was Bailey working on exposing a high ranking name? He recently stated that the person he suspects of murdering Sophie is now dead (the horny Gard??)
Did the Gards threat to stitch him up for the murder act as a warning?
We all know the bad side of Ian Bailey. But the flip side of that coin, is that Bailey was also a clever, intelligent, sharp individual. He would have pieced together a time lime up to Sophie's death in half the time the Gards did.. And he would have had all the inside knowledge from the locals
Didn't the Gards roll up at his home and take all of his written work away for examination...? What were they looking for? If he killed Sophie, he was hardly going to write a short essay about it and leave it on his desk...
Were the Gards looking for his file on them? Or a file on a senior college maybe? Or were they concerned about what Bailey had discovered?
You can bet our bottom dollar on it - Bailey knows more than he's letting on...
He probably can't prove a thing, but he knows.
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You've hit the nail on the head on this.
Yes, I've heard that he volunteered blood and hair samples early on. I think the only thing that would work against Ian is that he was burning something behind the house? Possibly evidence? Clothes? It's probably the only behaviour of Ian, which is odd.
Also I am lead to believe that the women know more than they said. For instance Jules: She had her own business, artist, painting, classes, etc... plus two? daughters? Certainly she must have been scared, and a lot to lose, if her partner knows something in the drug business and even the local Gards are involved.
And what about Alfie's wife? Shirley Forster ( if they were married? ) She's still alive somewhere? Do we really buy that she never would have noticed anything what Alfie could have done? I believe she sold the house a couple of years ago and moved away.
And another question: If Ian knew so much, why didn't they kill him as well? Same style as Sophie? - it probably would have shed too much light in the direction of the drug business, I take it.
Post edited by tinytobe on0 -
the gate was open after the murder, so he wouldn't have climbed over it - it looks like sophie was thrown/fell against the gate at some point
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This thread is taking a nose dive into fantasy land. Fair enough to speculate but some of this stuff is taking a big leap.
The thing about the drugs hypothesis is that Sophie was only ever in the house sporadically, for a few days at a time. What threat was she in that scenario really? And if the Guard she was complaining to was in on it, as so many here believe, then he would be capable of fobbing her off until she fecked off back to France. Why would it come to a murder?
Some of the points that I'd like to respond to:
- @tinytobe Shirley only sold the house a few months ago after Alfie died. Are you implying that she knew Alfie was involved and kept it quiet?
- There was a trail of blood from the back door around the side of the house. This is spoken about in the French documentary on youtube that's been linked here a few times.
I am also wondering where the brick and the stone was from? Do we know it was from the property? How would the murder have known a brick or the stone of a certain size was there and found it at night? ( assuming the murder took place at night time )- The murderer bringing the rock to the scene from elsewhere. Come on. If you were bringing anything, why bring a rock? There's no shortage of big stones in the area. It was a clear night with almost a full moon. Visibility in the dark wouldn't have been too bad. That's assuming the murder even happened in darkness, it may have been at dawn.
- @flanna01 If Bailey had any information of value why would he not have made it public. He's been persecuted for 25 years, why would he not have mentioned at some point that he was working on exposing a high ranking name? It would have been beneficial to his case to do so.
- @JP Liz V1
Evidence missing, witnesses made lie, the Gardai fcuked up majorly or covering up for one of their own?I don't know, but my feeling is they fecked up and eventually, realising they wouldn't get Bailey to trial, they had to cover up some of the shady stuff they did to try and build the case against him.
Post edited by lintdrummer on3 -
Ok, international drug rings, French hitman, persona non grata Sassanach all aside,
can I go back to Marie Farrell?
The mystery man driving her around the byways and bohereens in his car , what car did he drive?
They drove around and talked for several hours, where did they go?
At 3 am. they passed a man standing on the bridge and nothing was said between them?
Where did he go after dropping her back to her van in Gooleen at 4am?
Knowing Marie's propensity to lie and her vulnerability to coercion,
is all of the above just one big lie?
Was she at home looking after her 5 kids that night and that story made up to cover up for someone?
Was the van out and about that night and the story made up to account for it in case it was spotted?
Was the sallow skinned man in the beret a red herring to send the investigation off to France ?
Did she switch from the sallow skinned "Frenchman" when she realised the investigation was focusing on Ian Bailey?
The person on the bridge at 3am, was it actually the person she's covering for who thought he may have been seen?
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To me the most fantastical aspect is posters pushing (as it were) this hypothesis are turning an old English hippy who grew a bit of weed for himself and his mates into another Pablo Escobar.
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Exactly, it's not like there was some multi-million pound international drug cartel in operation with half of Schull involved!
By the way, Alfie was a Dub was he not? He lived in the UK for a long while, USA too apparently (where some posters believe he was a CIA agent or some such).
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I mean I'm just a naive country boy but I'm a bit surprised posters are lumping all 'drugs' in together and making no distinction between hash and the hard stuff.
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