Beef price tracker 2

Bass you are right about needing a base of north of €4.50 but the mad thing about lad buying cattle is that if they are getting that they will go out and give €150 more for the stores they are buy, meaning they will need the base to go up another 20 cent the following year. Seen CH bullocks last Monday making €2.72- 440 kgs €1200 and FR making €1.72 - 425 kgs €730. You seen it with calves all spring, very few FR calves were bought around here for less than €120 and I seen plenty of AA calves crossing €300.

At them prices you would need a base price of €5/ Kg to to turn any profit.

I reckon the 440kg lads would cost another €500 before they get to being killed. If they kill out about 380kg dw that’d be €5 a kilo. Take away €0.20 for QA and if they’re good quality, average them as U= that’d be another €0.18 on top of base. That leaves you needing a base of €4.62 to break even and €4.88 of you’re to make €100 a head profit.

It’s hard to understand the logic in that.

If you hang them at 400 kgs average and they grade R+/U and run a low cost system allow youself 350 in costs and 40 for mart, Transport and slaughter fees you need 1790 to break even. That is a price of 4.48/kg, take away 29c/kg for QA and U-/R= grid differencial it leaves you ore or less at a base of 4.2/kg to break even. To make a 200 euro margin you would need another 50c/kg onto the base or 4.7/kg😲

You’d never get them to 400kgs dw on a low cost system unless you’re letting them back out to grass and killing them during the summer. Add on the grass cost and you’ll be back to near enough the same costs as killing out of the shed in March/April.

Either way there’s no money to be made!

And what is that supposed to mean ?

Fair enough I missed that but.

Yea if you see above I have it at €500 to kill them out of the shed.

They may have got 2k plus for bullocks this year but will they get it next year. Heavy bullocks are as risky as the bull game. To achieve prices of over 2k bullocks would want to be a DW of approx 450 kgs. This year with the beef shortage processor's were willing take them without discounting.

Next year with maybe a base below 4/ kg and 200 k extra cattle to be slaughtered in the system what are the chances that rules similar to what Kepak published last year could be put in place

He is bang in the ball. But looking at the crystal ball at the moment what are the factors going to affect through put in the beef game.

Big ones that I can think of are

-Meal price for the winter, both local and world wide-

-Store price this back end ( too high for farmer margin to be factored in)

-Over hang of the 200k cattle for next year. If extra a killed this year could affect the kill with an extra 3-4k to weekly kills and could tip the balance

-Beam to a lesser extent as most who are in it have been making the reductions

-Brazil and the BSE cases ( what is the latest on this and how does Ireland fair on getting back to China)

-Brexit checks seem to keep kicking the can down the road.

This list goes on,and feel free to add to it but the positives are.

-Beef market futures are steady and rising for all of next year.

-Inflation, whether you view it as a positive or negative, this will keep the price of food up. Beef farmers are good at keeping the system low cost with only necessary spending. Govs and central banks will want some level of inflation as it dissolves debt and will encourage some growth post covid.

-Beef sector agreement, regarding overweight cattle. Now factories will have to give 4 month's notice of weight changes. If you have supplied overweight cattle and have not been penalised this resets the clock. Farmers need to be cute and play this card.

If they have penalised on the kill sheet and willingly take now and not dock for over weight. This will give an outlet for 4 month's. I know they will back these type of cattle up. If you get them off you have an excellent argument to get the weight deduction back

I like to someone try to push that. Unless you have a beef regulator and only the IBLA seem to be pushing that. It the same as bulls at present if you have them they will.pay you a decent price, have them when there is loads of bullocks a d they might not take even the U16 months ones.

It doesn't matter to most in beef farming what those bullocks make next year as long as they can buy similar replacements next year again for 600 less

Really??

where?

Quoted 4.15 bas for steers today for a factory in midlands.

Half load - Told agent they wont be moving at that.

what is the story with the Herefords when it comes to the bonus, are factory’s still paying the 10 cents bonus or is it now more? I know weight conditions apply

And 6 euro to the AA scheme. In a he case of the AA scheme if you kill more than 50/ year you get another 10c/ kg I think