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US and UK to now furnish Australia with nuclear submarines.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Spectacular diplomatic strop from the French - but they can't say they didn't see this coming, there was disquiet in Aussie press going back many many months about the French sub deal. No technology transfer to Aus, expensive for what they were getting, next to no onshoring of jobs. To say their intelligence agencies didn't know this was in the offing is beyond credibility as well. It's embarrassing for the French defence industry but those are the breaks.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Sweden builds some very good stuff, but it's still sortof the 'economy class' equipment. Good for the dollar, but not top tier. Kindof like Honda or Toyota vs Mercedes or BMW. The best thing they make is the CV90 armored vehicle, but you'll note that though they used to make their own tanks, they rejected the Swedish design in favour of German for their current one. Gripen is not in the same class as higher-end aircraft like Rafale or F-35, and I'm not sure Sweden could afford to build one which is. The example of Brasil's ENGESA is a lesson still borne in mind by defense companies. An up-until-then successful company, they pulled out all the stops and built a tank equal to the M1 Abrams, but when the sales didn't materialise, the company went bankrupt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    My personal favourite is the Visby class corvette ,

    I agree with you on the above ,but if the likes of Saab and several other European aircraft producers were able to sit down with a blank piece of paper and a larger budget they likely could produce something up there with the best of them ,the Leopard 2 is an definitely up there tank wise ,as good as the Abrams I'll leave that one based your experience in the real world ,

    But having multiple countries trying to come to a consensus on what aircraft and vehicles suit everyone's needs is never going to be easy , similar to the development of the Bradley vehicles too many people with too many ideas and demands Equals delays , confusion and no real leadership saying this is the design and construction we want to go with ,

    Ifv developments have grown rapidly in the last few years especially 6x6 and 8x8 the UK were totally left behind till they literally went with an off the shelf model of the German boxer system , which is something we don't see too often no competition ,no evaluations of multiple vehicles just this is the one were buying and having speced to our needs ,

    We can't seem to get a comment consensus in Europe ,the Eurofighter was a prime example that nearly never got off the ground due to budget constraints and France pulling out because they didn't get full control and an aircraft to suit they carrier needs ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,078 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    As cool as I think these subs are, you would have to think its a waste of money. If history teaches us anything its that arms races are a huge waste of resources that could be better invested in quality of life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    America and to a lesser extent the UK need a boogyman to keep the extremely lucrative war machine going.

    40 years ago it was Russia.


    Now it's China.


    Give it another 40 years and it will probably be Europe 🤷‍♂️



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    That's one way of looking at it. Another way (and one I'd agree with) is that if the region and the world at large allows the PRC to swarm Taiwan, the security of the region is very much under threat and the strategic map of the globe will change utterly in favour of a deeply illiberal and chauvinistic power like China.

    For all its faults, the Pax Americana in the Pacific that allowed democracies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to grow and flourish largely on their own terms is one that is worth defending.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    People said the same about Ukraine.


    Don't get me wrong, everything should be done to defend Taiwan from falling into China's hands but is the world willing to go to war for them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Yeah look at Ukraine ,

    Under foreign occupation and sovereign territory annexed illegally ,all because people were afraid to stand up to putin ,the same applies to China they are building a massive offensive military ,this isn't about defence ,china sees its self at the only player on the world stage ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Crimea and Ukraine is positively low-stakes stuff compared to Taiwan. If the PRC take Taiwan, the Pacific immediately becomes their backyard pool, the Straight of Melacca fall into their hands and you'll see them immediately settling scores with Japan and the US. East Asia is increasingly the world's economic engine and Chinese hegemony under its current guise is not a pretty picture.

    Is the world willing to go to war for Taiwan? I think Aus stumping up for some nuclear subs to make Beijing think twice about doing something reckless is a small price to pay.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Again, I'm not defending China's actions in that region, I'm saying that just like Ukraine I think the West will do nothing if China decides to move on Taiwan.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Aus agreeing to buy subs and Aus having the subs and ability to use them in the next ten years are two different things.

    Those subs will be no use to anyone if China decides to move on Taiwan in the next five years, or do you think China will sit on its hands for a decade and move on Taiwan when everyone is fully armed and ready for that?

    I think some time in the next five years we will all wake up one morning to hear that Taiwan is fully in control of China and they have 50,000 troops there, at that stage it will be too late for the West to do anything other than condemn them and call for sanctions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It's clear the US has bet big on the Asia-Pacific. I'd invert that, and argue that the fact that Beijing hasn't moved on Taiwan is that they are deathly afraid of what the US would do. They'd be right, I don't think that's a line the US will allow the PRC to cross. Japan has long had a pacifist constitution, the likes of Abe have low-key questioned it for a long time, and Taiwan being put in the crosshairs would almost certainly prompt major changes to Japan's military posture.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Of course they won't they are afraid to even say Taiwan is a country let alone coming to the defence of the country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    If China invaded today, and landed thousands of troops on Taiwan, what do you see happening?


    This isn't iraq/Kuwait where a coalition of governments would come together and drive the invaders out. This is (wether you like it or not) a nuclear armed superpower with a massive military.


    Do you envision troops on the ground fighting them until they leave?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It would primarily be a naval engagement, and I can see the US sea and air power getting involved (along with possibly Japan and Aus such would be the severity of such a crisis) yes.

    Edit: If you read through a lot of the scenarios, China even landing on Taiwan would be a major military undertaking - the Taiwan straight is very unforgiving and PRC ships would be sitting ducks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,637 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Why would it be naval though, China could land 10,000 troops on Taiwan tomorrow with minimal fuss and minimal loss, once that beachhead is established and while the world wakes up to what's happened they would then move another 10/20,000 troops with artillary, troop carriers and tanks.

    By the time the US fleet or the Aus navy arrive the chines will have pulled thier boats back to Chinese waters. Now how do you deal with that situation?


    You can have all the aircraft carriers you want circling Taiwan but unless you are willing to put boots on the ground to remove the soldiers already there then your carriers are worthless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I recall reading scenarios from naval and military experts on this. Such are the conditions on the Taiwan straight, that there are only two short windows a year where any sort of realistic stab at invading can be attempted, it would require a major military and navel buildup in Fujian which would never go unnoticed by intelligence in a heavily surveyed and patrolled area, and the Taiwanese coast is incredibly well fortified. If it could be done with minimal fuss, it would have been done already. The US move carrier groups and subs to the area during these windows and they could strike from Okinawa, Korea and Guam as well quickly and with devastating force. And that's not to mention Taiwan's own defence forces who spend 24/7 - 365 planning for such a scenario.

    People are fond of overstating China's military competency. Very little about invading Taiwan could be done with ease - chances of success are relatively low with China's current capacity, and it would probably be a regime ending defeat for the CCP should it occur.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,817 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Any war games I've read about a possible invasion of Taiwan would involve the airforce trying to knock out Taiwan's defenses first before any navel or amphibious action. That may take a few days and would give the Americans and others time to counter any amphibious assault. For all, we know there could be half a dozen American nuclear attack subs stationed in the South China sea at all times, just in case.... What we do know is that there is an American Carrier Strike Group permanently stationed in Japan that patrols these waters.


    Just this weak they had another Carrier strike group doing exercises in the South China Sea.

    Put it this way, they won't have to set sail from San Diego or Hawaii, the Americans will either be in the region or very close by if the **** hits the fan.


    On China itself, they have precious few allies in the region and the CCP know this. Who do they have in their corner? Myanmar, under a military coup? North Korea? That is about it.

    The Americans on the other hand have Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand and don't forget India who themselves are a nuclear power and have had run-ins with China the past year. Even the Vietnamese can't stand the Chinese and would back the Americans if it came to it.

    Also, invading Taiwan is high stakes for the CCP. If they get it wrong and are defeated in some way, then it could very well be the end of them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    The Taiwanese army is 160K strong so the Chinese would need a lot more than 10K troops. In fact it is accepted that defenders have an inbuilt advantage so attackers need a 3:1 ratio for a successful attack.

    Everyone would notice if ships were being put in place in China to transfer 500K troops across the Taiwan Strait.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    So if the ships all go back to the Chinese coast after dropping off 10-20,000 troops, how are they going to be sustained? Fuel, food, ammunition will run short very, very quickly. An assault would require that the strait be opened to China, and kept open.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,103 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What was the last time an openly belligerent socialist ideology lead country with a near dictator as head started on a big one sided arms buildup for no apparent reason - oh yes, Germany.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,103 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Australia currently has subs. There is a rather nice Yt video of them engaged in exercises with the Amircans when they were supposed to try and get close to a US destroyer:

    The last bit is amusing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,750 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The Taiwanese will not let China capture TSMC's factories intact. Besides right now there is a shortage of chips affecting everyone.

    Even the new TSMC plant for Arizona will be a generation behind the latest tech when it opens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,333 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    France should deliberately obstruct progress on sectoral agreements with Britain for that cheek from Boris Johnson.

    You would think he'd had his arse handed to him enough of late without antagonising further, people that can either help or hinder Britain in its post-Brexit turmoil. But then, thats the leadership the people of Britain seem willing to tolerate as their Country circles the porcelain bowl.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,078 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Subs or not, the invasion of Taiwan would be extremely prohibitive. The country(in its current guise) has spent its entire existence fortifying and preparing for invasion. Receiving cutting edge tech and training for years. I'd say it would be a horrifying mess.

    The Chinese are better off wearing them down and using soft power and economic stimulus to bring the political change in Taiwan that they want. Militarily it would be a tragedy to invade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,116 ✭✭✭archer22


    The American and vassal warships will be entering the kill zone of DF21D when they are 1,500 miles from China...if they survive to get closer they will be in the kill zone of a vast array of other Chinese anti ship missiles and submarines plus attack aircraft, drones, and god knows what else..I have lost track of the ever growing array of Chinese military systems at this stage.

    Anybody who thinks China couldn't take Taiwan and that America and its vassals could stop them is living in doo la la land.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The CCP spent many years courting and influencing the Kuomintang, and now significant swathes of Taiwanese hate them for it, particularly the young. The DPP are firmly ensconced in Taiwan as a political force which has broken Beijing's brain and ruined their strategy for the island.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    War gamed scenarios would not agree with your 'la la land' theory. An invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most challenging military operations in history and if you've declared Beijing a winner here on boards maybe you should go to Zhongnanhai to share the good news with the CCP brass.

    Your statements about 'vassals' speaks more about your politics than anything else.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,078 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    It would be the worst decision since Napoleon invaded Russia. THe most likely thing to happen would be a revolution in mainland china



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