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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,552 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers



    Im not saying a specific player has to do XYZ and will then be included, im saying when it comes down to it and the fans are picking who they believe should start what Stats are they using to compare players.


    If your picking a 10 its pretty obvious that someone with a 50% conversion ratio doesnt make the grade when there is a 90% kicker available, or at least that 50% would have to have some other massive strings to their bow.

    So the question is when your picking a FB what are the most important stats to compare?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,737 ✭✭✭irelandrover


    Are we now holding up Eddie Jones as a manager who picks on form?

    The manager who refused to play the european player of the year Sam Simmonds, who would play a half fit Billy Vunipola, who played loads of Saracens players who weren't even playing in the top tier. Dropping George Ford for Premiership winning outhalf and lions player Marcus Smith is hardly the bravest decision in the world.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,466 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    So the question is when your picking a FB what are the most important stats to compare?

    we'll have XPs this season in the URC.. so that will be a very valuable metric to comp[are players in the same positions



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,551 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I'd suggest a lot of fans aren't using stats at all. And I don't particularly see a problem with that either. Take your example of the % successful conversions / penalties. I'd suggest:

    1. We rarely see such a disparity as 50% vs 90% from our 10's that are in contention. (It's much more likely to be in the 75%-90% range).
    2. It doesn't account for difficulty of kick, position on the pitch or if kicking duties are split depending on the distance.

    So even one of the more seemingly like-for-like metrics can have limited value.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,466 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Greg Laidlaw was a high percentage kicker... but anything outside of 40 meters he didnt take.

    does that make him a more valuable kicker than say, frans steyn or elliot daly, who would kick a much higher percentage of long range kicks ?

    moving that to FB, how would stats measure FBs position?

    would a missed tackle by a FB be a better or worse metric than no tackle at all, due to poor position?

    would a longer kick that goes dead because of an unlucky bounce be a worse metric than a sliced kick that gives the opposition possession within your half?

    most supporters generally would highlight the good points about their preferred players and dismiss the bad points. thats human nature i guess.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,552 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    His latest squad didnt include Billy V, and his snubbing of Barritt was worse than Simmonds imo.


    But lets not forget he has a RWC silver medal and is clearly building towards France 2023 in a way that im not sure we are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,859 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    In what way is he building towards 2023 that we're not?

    And on the other hand, you're demanding we recall a guy who will be 33 come the RWC and whose last club decided to offload him?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,552 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    demanding?

    Show me where I'm demanding anything?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭clsmooth


    You know you don’t have a strong argument when you try to shift the conversation by focusing on a word that someone else has said and ignoring the points made about the actual original debate :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,737 ✭✭✭irelandrover


    I know his latest squad didn't include Billy V. He has finally changed in how he selects players. Lets see his selection of teams before we judge that he's picking for the future. Currently he has dropped a few players from a squad but says the door is open to them to come back in.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    So really you just want players who make good decisions and execute with accuracy.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,466 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    not necessarily, i also value an element of risk taking, 'off the cuff' and the unexpected. it is sport after all. we watch it to be entertained dont we? well, at least i do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    But risk-taking and playing off the cuff can be good decisions. It's like Steve Hansen says - 'You get your options from the defence'. If it's on from a player's own goal-line then I want to see him go for it. If players are really good readers of the game, like, say, Max Deegan, then they can understand what's the best thing to do in any given situation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    Players make those kind of decisions all the time. It’s not like they’re robots. Everytime a player throws an interception, it’s a risk that didn’t pay off. Going for that extra 5 meters on a kick and it going dead, that’s a risk that didn’t pay off. Not kicking to touch at the end of a half when the clock is in the red is a risk. When these risks don’t come off, players get crucified by the same fans who want them to take more risks.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,466 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    i never said taking chances wasnt making good decisions. you said "just" good decisions and accurate execution. im not averse to a young player who makes a good decision and tries something which doesnt come off because of poor execution, or makes a bad decision which comes off because of good execution.

    the ONLY way players learn is by making mistakes, and no player is the complete article.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,497 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    Well, I agree with the first part of what you say. Just because good execution is desirable doesn't mean I'd be very critical of poor execution. It just means a player needs to get better at the execution part, not stop trying things. That was Johne Murphy's issue with Anthony Foley as a coach. The players would be criticised based on outcome if they tried something and it didn't come off, which of course led to them going into their shells for fear of making a mistake. Penney, on the other hand, would say "That was a good decision. You need to execute that".

    Fair point on a bad decision coming off because of good execution. I think I remember Justin Marshall saying one of the best pieces of advice he got from a coach was that you can turn a bad decision into a good decision if you commit to the action 100 %.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,552 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Leaving out Billy V wasnt exactly a massive move, his form in the 6 nations was terrible and he wasnt exactly stamping his authority on the game when sarries played bristol in the season opener.

    I think watching the options England and Ireland take at halfbacks over the autumn and 6 nations will show their intent at developing their team with the RWC in mind.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,551 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    What about the 15 players Farrell has given their debut to in a season an a half? Does that not say anything towards showing intent at developing a team with the RWC in mind?



  • Registered Users Posts: 367 ✭✭OneLungDavy


    Play Zebo at 10



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,929 ✭✭✭jacothelad




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,552 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    9 of which came against USA and Georgia.

    lets see how many caps those 15 get against decent sides and how many of them see game time in the six nations.

    There are some positions where development of the replacement is well needed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,859 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    ... and let's see how many of the 50 players Eddie Jones just announced get caps against decent sides or in the 6N?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,551 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    My mistake, it’s now 22 players. You mentioned half-backs specifically; he’s given debuts to 3 scrum-halves and 2 fly-halves. By any measure that is development towards a RWC. But some people will still want to complain.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Well for starters, Farrell has given more than 15 players their debuts in the 18 months he’s been in charge. By my count (off the top of my head so may be slightly off) he has given 23 players their debuts.

    Of those Kelleher, Baird, Connors, Coombes, Doris, JGP, Casey, Harry Byrne, Balacoune and Keenan are all guys who he has given debuts to that we can expect will have a real future with Ireland. So that’s 10.

    Then there’s a bunch of guys below that who may have decent to good prospects at a future with Ireland like O’Sullivan, O’Toole, Deegan and Lowe. So there’s another 4.

    The fact is that most of the guys he has given debuts to are in with a good shout of playing the bigger games over the next year or two, if they haven’t already. Farrell has been very progressive in his selections to date. I really don’t know how this is even up for debate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    You’re right, it is 22. I included Ross Byrne for some reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,859 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    It's slightly mad that people are always giving out about us not planning for the future, but the two players who generate the most outrage will both be 33 come the RWC.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,551 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Sexton also seems to have crept into that bracket, by dint of his age and injury profile. It’s reasonable to have concerns there, imo, but the problem is he’s still delivering performances that far exceed the alternatives.

    Hopefully, with Carbery getting a full pre-season and a good run of games, he’ll play himself into form.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,932 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Reliability is the issue with Sexton. There's no doubt he's still our best fly half. But the chances of him getting through a world cup campaign in 2 years is basically nil.

    Unfortunately, Harry Byrne doesn't seem to be any more reliable and Carbery is a shadow of the player he was.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,478 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    I would expect some turnover before the world cup.

    Obviously at lh. Porter may work out, hopefully he does. I'm hoping the E.O.S can kick on and get some minutes. I think at this point Wycherly is a long shot.

    Hooker there's Kelleher. He must improve the set piece. Behind him I think Sheehan has a shot and maybe Stewart or Tierney.

    Locks is a fairly strong position as is back row.

    Scrum halh will be interesting. I reckon Casey is in a real good position. Doak would be my dark horse. Murray is still the incumbent though! JGP is a decent option from the bench. Blade is in the frame too!

    Out half is not so rosy. Ross Byrne is not the answer. Billy Burns is probably a bench option. Carberry is fragile and Carty is inconsistent. HB is looking like he's injury prone also. And Sexton ...

    Wings look decent. Balacoune and McElroy look like very good options. Conway will be thereabouts as will Larmour. Earls may fade? I think Shane Daly is an option too, although he hasn't impressed yet. Then there's Stockdale and Lowe!

    Center looks ok. Henshaw Ringrose and Aki, along with Hume and both Farrells look strong .

    Fb there's Addison, Haley and Keenan. Zebo lurks in the shadows.

    The problem is oh. Sexton is clearly the best option. I hope somebody steps forward soon!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,795 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Personally I'd be putting energy into Joey Carbery and Harry Byrne. But they both have to be fit for that to happen, hence the more robust Ross Byrne, Billy Burns and Jack Carty are the ones getting the caps.

    In reality Carbery is streets ahead of all the above, so hopefully he has an injury free season, if he does I wager he will be first choice Irish 10 by the 6Ns. Flogging Jonny is obviously an option. I'd keep him in reserve, give him a few caps here and there, but while I'm usually of the view you just pick your best team for the big games, I think we're past that now at out half. We need to expose these other guys and we need to do it now. To be fair Carbery has played in big games for Ireland and often delivered, it is just injury that has held him back rather than anything the coaches have or haven't done.

    Fair to say it is a MASSIVE season for him!



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