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If in doubt - get tested!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @MilkyToast wrote:

    I mean I linked the systemic review and analysis that shows a 0.7% chance of an asymptomatic person spreading Covid to others in their household

    I think you have misunderstood the meaning of secondary attack rate. The secondary attack rate for symptomatic cases was 18%, that doesn't mean that the average symptomatic person has only an 18% chance of infecting "others in their household". It means that each person in the household of a symptomatic case had an 18% chance of being infected by that case. So in a household of four people there was a 45% chance that at least one would get infected by the index case (and even then it is confounded by clustering and further transmission).

    Post edited by Lumen on


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,349 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    I have just scanned that doc. I would suggest you are over simplifying the findings.

    As I said previously, if asymptomatic people posed such little risk, the numbers would not blow up like they have done in the past and the whole control mechanism introduced would make no sense.

    I'd suggest the 0.7 percent relates to the risk of infecting any given household contact.

    If there were 7 people in the house, that's a 1 in 25 chance of passing it to someone while showing no symptoms.

    A symptomatic spouse was something like 30 percent likely to pass it on. I didn't see the figure for asymptomatic spouse but I imagine it would be higher than 0.7 percent. The report also said that older are more susceptible so that percentage would increase there again and add in higher than normal household contacts and the figures will increase again.

    If 3 kids come in from school with asymp. Covid, 0.7 percent would suggest an 8.5 percent chance of one of them giving it to someone in the house. That's danger territory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 849 ✭✭✭MilkyToast


    As stayed very clearly, I was not talking about symptomatic cases.

    “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ~C.S. Lewis



  • Registered Users Posts: 849 ✭✭✭MilkyToast


    “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ~C.S. Lewis



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,906 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    Vaccination and mask wearing has become a political statement in the US.Friends of ours moved back from the US lately (NY), and said they find it really weird that they can just wear a mask here and that everyone is wearing them and nobody really notices.Over there, they would have routinely had remarks passed on their mask wearing while out in coffee shops or similar.It has reached a stage (they felt) where it was like wearing a badge to state who you voted for.They have been in the States a long time, but the political divisions of the last 4 years or so played a large part in their move back to Europe.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,349 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    That was a quick tot up while half asleep but something like this:

    House of 7 with 3 kids coming in asym.

    4 remaining susceptible people.

    Each kid has a 0.7 percent chance of giving it to each remaining susceptible person.

    So each kid has a 2.8 percent chance of giving it to someone in the house.

    3 kids so 3 x 2.8 is 8.4 percent chance of some kid giving it to some one person in the house.

    May not be entirely 100 percent correct but that's where I got it from.



  • Registered Users Posts: 849 ✭✭✭MilkyToast


    I disagree with your math but I'm heading out the door so we'll let it stand, and I'll just say that if your fear comes from a dependence on a scenario arising where three family member out of seven are asymptomatically infected and this gives you a less-than-10% chance of someone else in the household being infected with a virus that has a <1% CFR.... well. I guess I'd understand it if one of the other adults in the household were a frail 89 year old with diabetes, kidney disease and COPD, but otherwise it seems like an extraordinarily high level of risk aversion.

    “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ~C.S. Lewis



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,241 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Indeed. The USA has a history of testing and vaccinations for various diseases fully justified based upon decades of public health research and development. Many contagious diseases were eliminated or almost so within their borders.

    Most public K-12 schools required students to be vaccinated as did the US military. And my university employer paid for all my recommended vaccinations before traveling to international conferences to give scholarly papers. Only a tiny, tiny number of USA conspiracy theory anti-vaxxers protested vaccinations based upon misinformation before Covid.

    That changed dramatically late 2019 with Covid as led by Trump, who belittled Covid mitigation strategies like mask wearing and social distancing at his political rallies with thousands squashed together shouting in super spreader fashion. Trump refused to mask in public for the first 4 months of Covid in the USA. Trump politically weaponized Covid against his opponents and influenced his millions of followers accordingly. Trump supporting governors in states like Florida, Texas, and South Dakota, followed suit as did high Covid infection rates.

    Lucky for me I live in a small university town where science not politics rules. We test, vaccinate, mask, and socially distance without silly pejorative finger pointing by bullying Trumpsters. Any Covid Karens we meet are recognized as Out-of-Towners and told to mask per Covid city public health regulations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭sporina


    Hi All, update - and I am only posting this as it might save another life.. Mum tested +ve for Covid last Monday week and passed away the following Friday... Dad is still in hospital! Could not attend Mum's funeral - so yeah - get tested!



  • Registered Users Posts: 493 ✭✭BobHopeless




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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,050 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Sorry for you and your family's loss . RIP .



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm really sorry for you loss sporina.

    Some people are too selfish to get tested and self isolate because it might put their life on hold for two weeks. If your young its a mild illness.

    RIP

    I don't understand your brother with two elderly Parents at home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭sporina


    thanks - a vulnerable brother and Dad at home with him - Mum was in a nursing home but Dad had been visiting her every other day..

    selfishness and ignorance..



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal




  • Registered Users Posts: 47 StemCell


    Vaccination doesn't prevent it, I have it now.

    My 8 year old son caught it first in school.

    He was a bit listless and not eating.

    We booked us all in for a covid test.

    He was positive, me, my wife and 6 year daughter were negative. Then my daughter caught it the next day with bad vomiting all day. Then I got it the day after.

    Even after a double Pfizer vaccination I got fevers, chills, congestion, dry cough etc.

    Am on day 3 of that with really bad nights sleep. The scary thing was sitting perfectly still in bed at night and my heartrate was 120bpm from my fitness band as covid can affect the heart too.

    It's probably the equivalent of a bad head cold now but still not gone.

    If we hadn't made the effort to get tested then there's a kid with cancer in my daughter's class who probably would've caught it.

    It's totally selfish to not get tested if you've a fever or 2 of the other symptoms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,856 ✭✭✭sporina


    gosh sorry to hear that - hope you all feel better asap..

    yes my parent's wer both fully vaccinated.. just shows.. boosters much needed..

    as my dear Mum would say - "none as queer as folk" - people with symptoms not getting tested.. dunno how they sleep at night



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 StemCell


    The kids shook it off reasonably well.

    8 year old son... A bit listless and not eating for about 2-3 days.

    6 year old daughter, hit harder.. vomiting all day, couldn't even keep water down, you could tell by her face she was very sick. But back to herself in 3 days or so.

    And I feel better today, it's only like a congested head cold now but still highly contagious I imagine. Can't see myself leaving the house in the next 10 days (to check actual time) and probably after another covid test.


    People who don't get tested and isolate are lacking in moral decency and social responsibility. You can have a nanny state with strictly enforced lockdowns or hope that by lifting restrictions people act like decent members of society and do the right thing on their own. Unfortunately appealing to people to do the right thing voluntarily doesn't always work. They're probably the ones who were protesting over lockdowns too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭Risteard81


    Absolutely. It's essentially a false flag. Governments are never shut down the country before because it was neither morally nor legally acceptable (or affordable). It remains immoral, illegal and unaffordable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,140 ✭✭✭screamer


    Sporina sorry for your loss. Sick of the “as long as I’m alright” attitude of assholes regarding Covid. Selfish f@cks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The virtue signal is strong in this statement.

    People who don't get tested and isolate are lacking in moral decency and social responsibility.

    That argument has lost its standing after the mass vaccination rollout. Either trust the vaccine or lock yourself up for the next decade if you want to avoid covid. There is a life, only one, to be lived and the vast majority want to live theirs. Finger wagging and tut tutting people for living their lives reeks of drivel from a jerk in an ivory tower.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭rahmalec


    That’s not what they’re saying.

    They’re saying that if you feel sick, get tested and stay home until better. I think (apart from the get tested bit), that would have applied before covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 86,189 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Antigen tests are quick. Too expensive here though. German pharmacies sell them for a few cents.



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