Biden/Harris Presidency Discussion Thread

Brian? · 29-09-2021 8:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117952690#Comment_117952690

It must be exhausting find issue with everything everyone says.

Milley explained his actions. He wasn’t justifying them because there was nothing to justify. His direct commander, the Sec Def, was aware of what he was doing and approved. Case closed.

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 12:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117952690#Comment_117952690

Some posters here (yourself included) were very exercised by early reports about Milley's dealings with China that ye characterised as 'treason'. Milley debunked that very comprehensively, with receipts. I don't understand why you would see that as a self- justification 'shocker', rather than as a clarification that ought to have eased your initial and clearly heartfelt concerns. Unless you actually wanted the 'treason' narrative to be true for reasons I can't fathom. I have no idea how the AZ beach front cliché applies regardless, and it didn't really add anything meaningful to the discussion IMO. But hey, if you got caught out by buying beach-front property in Arizona, I can well understand why you'd be quite desperate to get rid of it. 🤔

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 2:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117952768#Comment_117952768

Failure to raise the debt ceiling could have terrible effects on the U.S. economy. Coming as it would be in October (estimated at October 20th by Moody Analytics), with two of the poorest months of the year for tax revenues, day to day Federal spending would have to be cut by 40-60% assuming that interest and redemptions on treasuries would continue to be made. If interest is not paid, a dramatic increase in future interest on Treasuries would be demanded, the AAA rating would be lost and the US would basically be in default. The plethora of day to day cheques to the least well-off as well as spending on such things as Social Security ($20 billion on SS alone due Oct 20) and Medicare would have to be decimated until the ceiling is raised. Delay of more than a month could reduce employment by 5 million and reduce GDP by 4% or so.

The craaazy thing about this is that the ceiling was suspended by bi-partisan agreement during Trump's Presidency in 2019 (legislated to be re-instated in August this year), and the massive additions to debt as a result of the huge Trump tax cuts for the rich have added trillions to that debt which is a huge contributor to the problem. So now that they have their cuts, the GQP is telling Dems to 'go fish' and sort out the ceiling with absolutely no help from them. They even stopoed the Dems from trying to legislate an increase in the ceiling on their own, by not permitting a vote on the floor this week.

This is madness of the highest order, a form of financial hari-kiri that makes absolutely no sense, and all designed to cause huge problems for the Biden Administration. The landmines that Trump left in Afghanistan, the failure to facilitate a proper transition from November-January, the active undermining of Covid mitigation efforts such as masking and vaccination, the January 6th insurrection are all horrible examples of a corrupt and venal political party that is willing to 'burn it all down' just to make trouble for the other crowd! Talk about cutting off yer nose to spite yer face!!!

That country is absolutely fucked, it is being burned down from within & is handing huge successes to Putin, China etc who must surely be laughing their collective heads off at the carry-on. Sadly, its economic demise will drag the rest of us down with it, and they'll have to start another war to kick-start their economy again.

AbusesToilets · 29-09-2021 3:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117953802#Comment_117953802

Milley did not debunk the details of his conversation. He claims that he operated under the guidance of the SecDef and in consultation with various shareholders. That's a different thing entirely. He has not refuting that he told a Chinese counterpart that he would give advance warning of an attack. If you have a transcript of that, I would be happy to read it.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-09-15/gen-milley-defends-calls-to-chinese-in-effort-to-avoid-conflict

“General Li, I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay,” Milley told him in the first call, according to the book. “We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you.”

“If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise,” Milley reportedly said.

In his statement Wednesday, Milley’s spokesman did not directly address this aspect of the call but said Milley regularly communicates with his counterparts across the globe, including in China and Russia, to reduce tensions, provide clarity and avoid “unintended consequences or conflict.”

There is also the issue of how actively he has coordinated with opposition leaders in his opposition to Trump. His meeting with Pelosi for me crosses a line for overt political meddling.

AbusesToilets · 29-09-2021 3:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117954814#Comment_117954814

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2009/01/26/two-santa-clauses-or-how-republican-party-has-conned-america-thirty-years

A good article talking about the Republicans and their strategies with that.

Itssoeasy · 29-09-2021 3:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117954950#Comment_117954950

So someone in the change of command shouldn’t speak the speaker for the US House of Representatives then ? The speaker is in the line of succession so the speaker of the day should be kept informed of any issues like the one Gen Milley spoke to her about.

Itssoeasy · 29-09-2021 3:39pm

Also, I have to give the democrats in congress credit for actively impeding their own presidents agenda. It’s impressive how they seem to keep doing this.

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 3:57pm

I didn't say that Milley debunked the details of his conversation. I said he debunked the 'treason' BS that the GQP was peddling over the past few weeks. You wrote off my reporting of that aspect with some 'zinger' about some beach-front stuff in AZ. Again, I say that, as explained by him, and not effectively challenged by ANY of the GQP crowd at the hearing, his contact with China was ENTIRELY within his remit, was conducted with the full knowledge of those in command who needed to know, and was briefed to Meadows and others in the Administration.

As for the other stuff, Pelosi is fully and statutorily entitled to briefings from/with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to whom he has oversight obligations. Congress holds the power to declare wars, not the President although some Presidents in the past 50+ years have dangerously gone beyond their skis on that one! It is entirely appropriate for the Speaker of the House to challenge the Joint Chiefs on whatever is going on at the White House, 2 DAYS after a coup attempt that tried to kill her, when rumours were floating around of pre-emptive strikes by China who feared a deranged Trump- ordered attack to further the chaos he and his dogs had unleashed in the preceding days! As far as I'm concerned, while I have lots of issues with Milley, he deserves a **** medal for that action!

FFS, be sensible here, or else I'm sorry but I can't be bothered partaking in further discussion with you!

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 4:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117954957#Comment_117954957

Yeah, a good article.. Sadly the black magic 'voodoo economics' of trickle-down! A fallacy that the GOP tries to resurrect time and again along with the re-animation of the two Santas!

And, despite decades of being left to deal with the fall-out once the GOP leaves power, the Dems appear like deer in the headlights every single time they have to clean up the mess! Jeez, sometimes you'd just feel like slapping the whole bloody lot of them!!

The next time I hear one of them say they need to act in a bi-partisan manner, I'll.... I'lll.... cough!!! splutter!!!

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 4:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955019#Comment_117955019

Tactically, while Pelosi remains Queen of her House, Schumer seems to be constantly out-manoeuvred by Mc Connell! Dems could lose the little Senate power they have any moment, and the gig would be up for a generation. They can't touch Sinema- push her too hard and she could jump ship in a heartbeat, giving a 51-49 majority back to Mitch! In fact, many of her recent actions have been predicated on knowing how much power she has right now.. She got THREE meetings with Biden yesterday! Unheard of!

AbusesToilets · 29-09-2021 4:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955094#Comment_117955094

If he actually gave forewarning to a foreign power of an imminent attack, that would absolutely be treasonous for me. Completely unacceptable. From the description of his discussion with Pelosi, he wasn't simply giving her a brief on a situation update or readiness. They were discussing ways to stymie Trump from exercising his prerogative as President to employ nuclear weapons. That is not an acceptable action for Milley to take, be it with respect to Trump or any other President. He is there to serve, and if he has an issue doing so, should resign. Pelosi has no standing in the chain of command, and to my knowledge, has no role or say in the employment of nuclear weapons.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm not advocating for Trump, or upset that more sensible people were in position to try and prevent him from making some catastrophic decision. However Milley's actions have undermined a central pillar of the relationship between the military and the political body. The trend of officers taking more vocal political positions has only increased, seemingly in inverse proportion to their ability to win wars.

BobHopeless · 29-09-2021 4:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955260#Comment_117955260

It is unacceptable alright and a blatant break in the chain of command. Milley's heart may have been in the right place but it doesn't excuse his actions.

duploelabs · 29-09-2021 4:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955305#Comment_117955305

Whatever the opinion you and @AbusesToilets may have, I severely doubt you understand the nuance of how the generals conduct themselves in foreign relations

Itssoeasy · 29-09-2021 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955260#Comment_117955260

Yes you are advocating for trump because are misquoting what Gen milley said. He called his Chinese counterpart to dispel any concern the Chinese had about an American attack and surely you’d agree that super powers shouldn’t fall into conflict based on perceptions of what the other is doing. And he also stated on the record yesterday and from the book, that the president alone has the authority to launch nuclear weapons but that there is a procedure that is followed.

Seeing as you are so appalled at Gen Milley, I assume you feel the same feelings for former secretary of defence James Schlesinger under Nixon who did something similar.

AbusesToilets · 29-09-2021 5:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955371#Comment_117955371

Have you a source where Milley refutes the text of his conversation in the book? He has not, to my knowledge stated he was misquoted. There is a difference between the actions a civilian politician might take, and one that a General would. Both actions would be considered to be undermining or betraying their office, even if done with good intentions.

Itssoeasy · 29-09-2021 5:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955432#Comment_117955432

I’m not trying to say he refutes anything. In the book he’s quoted as reassuring the Chinese that what they may have heard post election was not accurate and again after that clusterfuck at the capitol he does it again and he probably wasn’t the only one in a position of leadership trying to reassure allies and adversaries alike that the US wasn't going to do something stupid. Is that not good practice to cool tensions or concerns.

How would it be considered to be undermining or betraying( a very serious charge btw) their office when they would take an oath to uphold the constitution and defend against all enemies foreign and domestic.

Itssoeasy · 29-09-2021 5:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955432#Comment_117955432

I didnt say he’s saying he’s misquoted, I’m saying you are misquoting him or at the very least being selective in what parts of his conversation with the speaker of the house.

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 5:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955326#Comment_117955326

Nor the nuances of how civilian and military authorities must interact, carry out their respective roles and discharge their respective duties and responsibilities at the highest levels of U.S. Government, wherein a complicated web of interactions and liaisons must take place without a single mention or careless use of the Treason charge unless it is accompanied by some very serious evidence.

AbusesToilets · 29-09-2021 6:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955555#Comment_117955555

I quoted the relevant part previously. Calling a foreign power to allay concerns is a normal part of diplomacy. Saying that you will give forewarning of an attack is not. That's a pretty clear distinction.

I didnt say he’s saying he’s misquoted, I’m saying you are misquoting him or at the very least being selective in what parts of his conversation with the speaker of the house.

Pelosi is on record saying that he offered her various assurances with respect to Trump and possible attacks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pelosi-says-she-spoke-to-gen-milley-about-trump-and-the-nuclear-codes/ar-BB1cAA7N

"This morning, I spoke to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to discuss available precautions for preventing an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike," Pelosi wrote in a letter. "The situation of this unhinged President could not be more dangerous, and we must do everything that we can to protect the American people from his unbalanced assault on our country and our democracy."

After speaking with Milley Friday, Pelosi told her caucus that she has gotten assurances there are safeguards in place in the event Trump wants to launch a nuclear weapon, according to multiple sources on a caucus call.

"Speaker Pelosi initiated a call with the Chairman. He answered her questions regarding the process of nuclear command authority," Colonel Dave Butler said in a statement.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/us/politics/in-a-call-with-pelosi-after-the-capitol-riot-milley-agreed-that-trump-was-crazy.html

“This is bad, but who knows what he might do?” Ms. Pelosi said. “He’s crazy. You know he’s crazy. He’s been crazy for a long time. So don’t say you don’t know what his state of mind is.”

“Madam Speaker,” General Milley said, “I agree with you on everything.”

General Milley, who as the president’s top military adviser is not in the chain of command, tried to reassure Ms. Pelosi that he could stop Mr. Trump.

“The one thing I can guarantee is that, as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I want you to know that — I want you to know this in your heart of hearts, I can guarantee you 110 percent that the military, use of military power, whether it’s nuclear or a strike in a foreign country of any kind, we’re not going to do anything illegal or crazy,” he said.

Take from that what you will.

TomOnBoard · 29-09-2021 7:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955646#Comment_117955646

You're quoting hearsay from a book and news article. Yet, while you continuously refer back to these, you show absolutely zero evidence of having listened to the General himself, who has dealt with ALL these matters in Congress over the past two days as I previously reported in some detail, and you not only ignored said reports but could only find a smart-assed and entirely irrelevant comment in rebuttal.

Its really tiresome now! You are clearly hugely invested in propagating a false narrative for reasons one can only.guess at. Your posts are entirely disingenuous at this stage and deserve no further attention. So, respectfully, I'm OUT! And if I can find out how, you're going on my Ignore list for the future!

AbusesToilets · 30-09-2021 7:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955999#Comment_117955999

Have you provided a source to show him refuting the transcript of what he said? Him saying the call was cleared with SecDef is not the same thing at all as him denying having made that statement. This isn't any old article on Buzzfeed, this book will have been vetted extensively. That section doesn't make it to print without corroboration from sources, which is likely why there has been no denial of it. Rather lots of obfuscation and talking around the issue.

Itssoeasy · 30-09-2021 4:21pm

What is senator Kristen Sinema up to ? It’s between the her and joe Manchin as the two senators who are doing a lot to hold up the infrastructure and the reconciliation bill in congress but at least Manchin talks about what issues he has with things and whether you’d agree with him or not, at least you’d have something to work with and towards, but Sinema just seems to like the attention.

AbusesToilets · 30-09-2021 4:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117959973#Comment_117959973

They're getting paid to go against the wishes of their constituents, simple as.

Itssoeasy · 30-09-2021 4:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117960053#Comment_117960053

Ah. Crap I was hoping there so long elaborate reason behind it. Well at least I know and my question has been answered. I mean at least you can kind of understand Manchin(kind of doing heavy lifting there) but honestly I’ve never heard Sinema talk.

I doubt very much that Nancy pelosi will bring it to the floor of the house today as planned because the progressive wing of the dems have more or less said they don’t trust either of the two senators to stick to the agreement which is fair enough, but the progressive dems may need to explain themselves if the bills fail and the states don’t get the crucial investment in physical infrastructure which is widely popular and needed.

Quin_Dub · 30-09-2021 5:04pm

Nope - As always it's the money.

Manchin is paid huge money by the Fossil Fuel industry who obviously hold a huge amount of sway in West Virginia , Sinema looks to be in the pockets of Big Pharma getting large sums into her campaign from them.

At least Manchin has some justification , Trump won his state by a massive margin (~40% I think) so Manchin can sort of (but not really) say that he's aligning with his constituents and that he'd lose his seat if he drifts to far "left".

Sinema however has absolutely no such excuse , Biden won Arizona and both Senators are Democrats so it looks like she's just in it for the money..

Itssoeasy · 30-09-2021 8:09pm

The house has gone into recess subject to be called back by Pelosi and I know the congress passed a CR to stop a government shutdown midnight east coast time, but it looks like there won’t be any movement on the infrastructure bills as of 4pm east coast time today.

I did see that Senator Manchin of West Virginia has put a figure of $1.5 Trillion out there which at least is a number that they can work from.

TomOnBoard · 30-09-2021 10:33pm

This demonstrates the difficulty for Dems to get things done in the Senate. Despite having significant national support for many policies, that support is not translated into Senate seats. And it's becoming more difficult for them to gain enough seats in the smaller states to gain overall Senate control. For example, Feinstein in California represents 38 million people in the Senate, while Barasso in Wyoming represents just over half a million. So Feinstein represents over 70 times more people and yet has the same voting power in the Senate as Barasso. This is equally true in lots of other states.

Manchin is an aberration in West Virginia in that he holds a nominally Dem seat in a highly Rep state. He is certainly living off the fossil fuel tit, but his voting intentions are often clearly indicated in advance. He is very clear that, if he feels his WV constiruents disagree with something the Dems want to do in Congress, he will choose constituents over party every time. The answer to that for Dems in the Senate is to get more Senate seats. 2020 was a poor showing for Dems in the Senate, and elections have consequences. The one bright light of Ossoff & Warnock success in Georgia was a success that was down to them and even more down to Stacy Abrams, and not down to Dems nationally.

Sinema is a different kettle of fish entirely! She represents Dems at home, but often votes GOP in Congress. While Manchin provides some justifications for his voting actions, she provides none! She is clearly a DINO, and has hijacked a seat for personal enrichment (from Big Pharma) and she serves as a useless, attention -seeking bottleneck to progress. She is identified as a Centrist, but she actually is a nothing! There is lots of talk about her being primaried in 2022, but this is almost definitely a waste of time, as she is not up for election until 2024. The only way to deal with her is to make her irrelevant in 2022 and remove her in 2024. In tbe meantime, Dems need to be careful about backing her into a corner, as she could jump ship at the drop of a hat, and join the GOP, turning the senate from 50:50 to 51:49 and putting McConnell back in charge. An appalling vista indeed!

pixelburp · 01-10-2021 5:49am

I'd not like to speak for Americans, not being one, but you'd want to speculate the majority of them are sick to death of hearing the names of Manchin and Simena - I know I am. Especially those feeling the country's economy is being held to ransom by two otherwise irrelevant politicians, a duo with naked vested interest.

Not like our own Dàils haven't been propped up by independents currying favours and preference for their constituency; while Teresa May's own brexit cabinet required the support of the DUP (and we're arguably still living with that fallout); but rarely is it a single person has been able to hold up the governance and direction of a country that size. It's kind of insane.

AbusesToilets · 01-10-2021 6:51am

The most infuriating thing is that the policies they're obstructing are wildly popular in both their constituencies. Not to mention, as Democrats, their failure to pass Electoral Reform measures is basically green lighting the Republicans to win future elections by virtue of their disenfranchisement efforts.

A right shower, the lot of them.

Itssoeasy · 01-10-2021 11:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961702#Comment_117961702

Their failure ? They’ve passed it in the house and it’s not the dems fault there is a stupid rule where you need sixty votes to get anything done in the senate. At times from your posts I do wonder if you aren’t more sympathetic to the GOP because you ascribe the majority of the blame to the party trying to pass this legislation but you don’t make the point that the GOP aren’t helping at all, and in some cases are actively working against the democrats.

Itssoeasy · 01-10-2021 11:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961629#Comment_117961629

Well yeah that’s a fair point that independents aren’t shy about naming their price to get support but the Americans in fairness go big style on this and makes you marvel at how they can say some of the stuff they do in relation to democracy with a straight face.

AbusesToilets · 01-10-2021 12:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962868#Comment_117962868

It's literally the Democrats fault that the filibuster is in place. They have the power to eliminate it.

Timely opinion piece today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/majority-democrats-republicans-senate.html

Interestingly, Lodge did not blame the minority in the Senate for obstruction. Instead, he blamed the majority for allowing it to happen in the first place. “If the rules permit them to obstruct, they are lawfully entitled to use those rules in order to stop a measure which they deem injurious,” Lodge wrote. “The blame for obstruction rests with the majority, and if there is obstruction it is because the majority permits it.”

BobHopeless · 01-10-2021 12:30pm

It's just weak governance from the president. A strong leader would get things done but he's not respected enough. He couldn't sell it.

Quin_Dub · 01-10-2021 1:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963013#Comment_117963013

That would certainly explain Trumps inability to pass any meaningful legislation when he controlled both houses as well - Other than the disastrous Tax cuts.

If it were true.

The reality is that the leaders of the two houses have far more influence over the passing of legislation than the President.

Pelosi and Schumer are the ones that aren't necessarily "cracking the whip" hard enough to push things through.

Timberrrrrrrr · 01-10-2021 7:24pm

It would seem that Afghanistan is already slipping from peoples minds as Bidens approval ratings start to head back up.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/30/1041602893/bidens-approval-rating-recovers-some-from-last-months-low-an-npr-poll-finds?t=1633115985447

"Last month, just 43% of survey respondents approved of how he was doing his job and a majority — 51% — disapproved. Since then, Biden has gained back some of that, drawing to about even, with 45% approving and 46% disapproving."

TomOnBoard · 01-10-2021 7:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963184#Comment_117963184

If fault lies with leadership regarding progress on the Biden agenda, I certainly see some fault on Schumer's part, although I will acknowledge that he is facing a Mitch/GQP brick wall of wanton obstruction. I see Pelosi as continuing to play a sound leadership role given her fractious House makeup. As for Biden, he is totally hamstrung by a scorched earth GQP animosity in both houses, so he can only do what he can within existing powers.

There's a simple solution to all this for the Dems: Win more seats in 2022!

Quin_Dub · 02-10-2021 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964866#Comment_117964866

There's a simple solution to all this for the Dems: Win more seats in 2022!

Or blow up the filibuster!!

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-10-2021 1:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967286#Comment_117967286

If the Dems don't finally get their finger out and do this then they deserve everything they get when they lose, its a ridiculous thing to hold onto and needs to be deleted from politics once and for all.

TomOnBoard · 02-10-2021 2:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967286#Comment_117967286

That's not possible when they hold only 48 seats willing to do so.

pixelburp · 02-10-2021 2:26pm

Re the mid terms, is there any kind of soft indication it's the GOP's to lose? Or are we just assuming the invariable seesaw of US politics? Isn't there a small chance that if the big infrastructure bill passes and vaccination goes well, the administration gets a thumbs up?

AbusesToilets · 02-10-2021 3:10pm

Bearing in mind that the State level republicans have been busy passing every anti democratic measure they can think of, the Dems are likely in for a hiding.

Itssoeasy · 02-10-2021 3:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

The infrastructure bills will obviously help but democrats need to sell what’s in it and how it will improve their constituents lives but they seem to not be doing that, or at least not like they should be. But there is a trend of the party in power losing seats in mid term elections.

TomOnBoard · 02-10-2021 8:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

IMO, its waay too early to judge. With a fair wind and some positive news in the next year, many aspects of the Biden agenda may get done and ought to be popular with voters. The GQP Big Steal lies will surely anger independents, as will constant McConnell/GQP obstructionism. There will have been a full year post Afghanistan war to be happy about, along with hopefully better Covid protections and results for those who care enough abiut themselves and others to vaccinate. The investigations into the attempted Jan 6 coup ought to be reporting in mid-year which will reflect very badly on the GQP in the minds of centrist/independent voters. The extra trillions pumped into the economy through the 2021 budget reconxiliations and infrastructure projects ought to have worked their way into visible improvements being obvious.

Dem messaging will be critical, and a barrage of Lincoln Project type adverts will be needed to remind voters of how appallingly the GQP has acted into 2021. That's assuming the Dems learn how to make such ads, and not rely on pissed-off Goppers to continue to make such ads for them.

Above all, voting rights will need strengthening and that is clearly a huge fly in the ointment that must be addressed to deal with GQP dis-enfranchisement efforts all over the states. Serious efforts will be needed to sort out the split Senate and Sinema needs to be made irrelevant. The House is currently on a knife-edge and needs to address why it did so poorly in 2020 when Biden did so (relatively) well against Trump.

All in all, I'd see the historic anti-President midterms as a real issue and an overall boogy-man that the Dems need to deal with. That said, it's nowhere near a situation where the GQP have it 'in the bag' already, and its theirs to lose!

Rjd2 · 03-10-2021 11:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967624#Comment_117967624

Polling is poor for the Dems. The GOP should take back the house, the concern for them is the senate. They are fav's but some of the people who will win the primary could be poison unless the state is very red. Josh Mandel and JD Vance are running very online campaigns in Ohio while Walker in Georgia will come through a primary but unsure how he does against a Dem. Obviously NH will depend on whether chris sununu runs, if he runs he probably will beat Hasan, but he does not seem keen on it.

Realistically the Dems will be hoping for Trump candidates to battle in the blue/purple states and obviously will need to be sensible with what they try to win.

They are obviously worried about RDS regarding 2024 so would love to knock him off now, but that could be a waste of money and very much like in 2020 when they spend fortunes on some clown who got hammered by Graham and to a lesser extent Beto in 2018 who lost to Cruz. Focus on winnable races and ignore the online mob.

Manic Moran · 07-10-2021 2:24am

Interesting (and extremely long) article came out today in Texas Monthly about the demographics of South Texas and why as Democrats start to focus more on constituencies like suburban white America and Arizona Hispanics (And even Dallas Latinos), they're starting to lose the Tejano vote which is likely to slow (if not prevent) the move from Red to Purple. A number of Hispanic-majority counties which voted for Biden and Democrat Representatives in 2020 were much closer they had been in 2016, they may well flip in 2024. It's not just the rural counties, the article calls out the hispanic district of my own city (San Antonio, on the blue side of purple)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-texas-latinos-trump/

Politico tapped the issue as well shortly after the election, due to the massive swings in places like Laredo attracting attention, though not to the same level of depth.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/17/trump-latinos-south-texas-tejanos-437027

Rjd2 · 07-10-2021 4:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986525#Comment_117986525

Yeah this is something that should be bittersweet for the GOP. For so long they seemed to focus to much on older white people which is a dwindling demo while ignoring the fact that many hispanic people very much lean to the right. The penny seems to have dropped recently which I suppose is better late than never.

With the Dems they still do well with certain latino groups, they played a big role in flipping Arizona for Biden but for so many who predicted forever Dem rule with demographic changes they are going to have tone down thosr predictions.

Regarding suburban whites Its complicated. The polling in Texas has been brutal for Biden recently, and someone I respect said this actually be the start of suburban republicans "coming home" now that Trump is not as prominent although obviously he is trying to fix that.

However some of the senate candidates such as Walker, Mandel etc will terrify suburban republicans due to their Trumpiness.

Its going to be interesting to see how this all evolves when it comes to the midterms and when Trump is declared the GOP nominee for 2024.

Brussels Sprout · 03-11-2021 2:14pm

Wow, I had to go hunting to find this thread. No posts in 4 weeks. Some difference from the last Presidency.

Biden's having a rough few months. Ever since the withdrawal from Afghanistan its been one thing after another. The loss of the Virginia Governor's race last night is just the latest setback.

The Democrats will certainly lose the House in the 2022 elections (and possibly the Senate too) so he basically has a year left of being able to pass any legislation. He really needs to get those Infrastructure bills passed ASAP. Ideally Stephen Breyer would step down too so that they could nominate his replacement while they still have control of The Senate. Another Reconciliation bill then next year and that's pretty much all he can do given the filibuster.

Timberrrrrrrr · 03-11-2021 2:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118112914#Comment_118112914

Before doing any of that they need to find a way to remove the filibuster altogether, it's time for the Dems to play and beat the Republicans at thier own game but alas I don't think they will.

Manic Moran · 03-11-2021 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118113033#Comment_118113033

Given what happened the last few times folks removed such limitations just before Congress changed hands, I think at this point many people are extremely nervous about such a concept. It is very short-term thinking.

Rjd2 · 03-11-2021 2:58pm

I'd argue what is happening in NJ is much scarier than Virginia for Biden. Murpy is a much better politician than Tmac, New Jersey is bluer than Virginia while the GOP went all in on Youngkin and did the bare minimum with the nobody running for them in NJ.

Its a grim time for Biden at the moment, economy not the best, small house majority , Mc Connell running interference while Sinema and Manchin are most certainly not helping.

Youngkin managed to juice the rural Trump vote while regaining some of the suburban voters who ran away from Trump, that's a problem for Biden regarding the midterms to say the least.

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