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The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

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    #9722
    Brendan Bendar
    Registered Users Posts: 19,472 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986360#Comment_117986360

    At last a bit of reality coming into the thread…..in my opinion



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    #9723
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986644#Comment_117986644

    Another premonition of the demise of the government parties.



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    #9724
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986360#Comment_117986360

    Excellent post .....I



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    #9725
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986724#Comment_117986724

    Huh?!!



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    #9726
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986439#Comment_117986439

    FG was in Government for a full term from 2016 without an overall majority (50 seats). It sort of worked out well for FF and probably even better with SF as the FF grass roots are not happy been subsumed into FG.



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    #9727
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986841#Comment_117986841

    Let's ignore the fantastical idea that FF are really secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners, why on earth would SF have any interest in going into government with FF? This is absolutely nonsensical.

    SF's entire MO is about being different to the current lot, yet you think they're going to want to bring half of the current lot back with them? There would be no credibility in this.

    A few heads would explode on this thread if that ever happened. Imagine the mental gymnastics required trying to support a SF/FF government given much of the commentary about FF coming from the SF base the past few years.

    SF's only route to government is one that does not involve FF or FG, which basically means they need a grand coalition of practically everyone else. Or they need to get a larger vote share than they are currently polling for (entirely possible, since the election is still far away).



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    #9728
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986841#Comment_117986841

    Based on what? the people I see on here posting about "FF grass roots" haven't a clue what they want or don't want.

    Plus SF spent the last 12month + telling everyone how s**t FF are, why are they suddenly going to partner with such a terrible party?



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    #9729
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986896#Comment_117986896

    You are right, plus based on the recent poll SF are taking votes from the other parties and not really off the government parties.

    Also lets not forget at the last election SF managed to get no parties to join up with them. Hardly a great sign for the future.



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    #9730
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986920#Comment_117986920

    SF cannot go into government with FF or FG, and FG and FF cannot go into government with SF. These scenarios make no sense.

    So that makes things a bit more difficult but it's not impossible. It just means, if the vote ended up like the poll suggest, you'd be looking at a government made up of 4/5 parties. I don't see a SF route with just 3 parties. Even if they managed to get the GP and Labour, they'd still be short.

    But it's still a long time to the election.



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    #9731
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986982#Comment_117986982

    This is the thing, SF have gone full on attack at FF/FG/Greens across the boards. Calling them every name under the sun and trying to make out they are all idiots. If SF had any cop on they would have figured out they need someone to join them in a few years to get into government and they would have majority so they would lead. But they don't, they think abusing people will make them want to work with them

    That is why I laugh about the grass roots comments. If you use FF social media and they release a video, you see FF supporters asking questions and they get attacked from every direction by SF supporters, then people actually think those people will want anything to do with SF? no chance.

    The great coalition from the left, don't make me laugh. Paul Murphy and the likes want to sit in the back, doing nothing, getting paid and release the odd snippet to the press to remind everyone they are still around.



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    #9732
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Actually, looking at the numbers again I would say the only possible government that could be formed out of this is a repeat of the current one, just with FG and FF switching places.

    Nothing else is there that I can see.



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    #9733
    Cyclingtourist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    If SF are the party with the most seats in the next Dail they won't be too bothered about who they go into government with.

    There are no principals when it comes to power, only practicalities.



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    #9734
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,545 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986841#Comment_117986841

    So, you want to see FF support a minority SF government... ROFL...

    https://media.giphy.com/media/T3Vx6sVAXzuG4/giphy.gif




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    #9735
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,545 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986896#Comment_117986896

    Correct. If SF is going to go all-in on the Change guff and tell us that there needs to be a government without FF or FG they cannot do an about-face and do a deal with FF.

    The only option for them is SF+ Everyone else, which is a hard task given the numbers.

    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/09/15/september-2021-projections-update/

    This has some interesting projections based on the high current polls of SF.

    Basically, SF seats top out at 59 and that includes things like taking two seats in Kerry, which means one of the Healy-Raes losing out, taking 3 seats in Donegal, which won't happen, taking 3 seats in Louth which won't happen... you get the picture.


    If all the stars align for SF they will get 60 seats MAX! They are still 20 seats short and to be honest you want a few seats to spare.

    The projection also says, Labour 3, SD 3, Greens 2, PBP 3. That is 11 so they are short. Can they also get 9 Indo's onboard? LOL

    It will be a nightmare for them to try and cobble together a government without FF or FG.

    No way in hell would FG go in with SF and FF would drive a very VERY hard bargain and their newfound vote would leave SF in droves. They would be back to 10-12% overnight if they went in with FF.

    ROFL


    SF in power, so close yet so far......



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    #9736
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987102#Comment_117987102

    I suggest you read up on how a government is formed. We had this confusion last year and I hope it won't be repeated again



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    #9737
    Cyclingtourist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    FF as the smaller party in a government led by SF would be disastrous for FF not for SF.

    Personally I see the next general election being just the first of a number of them in fairly quick succession.



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    #9738
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986896#Comment_117986896

    No, they wouldn't be dying to jump into bed with SF, but they want to survive. Just bear in mind that Mary Lou actually comes from the FF gene pool and that most of the SF leadership are untainted personally with a paramilitary past, so flinging that mud won't have that traction anymore, particularly outside of Ireland.

    I think people may have a little difficulty with FFG and their management of the country and the reason why SF are gaining in popularity is because as opposition, they are actually calling them out on that. FG have been in power far too long and have grown arrogant. SF are the only ones speaking up for the younger generation and more vulnerable in society.

    Most of FF's support used to come from small farmers, lower middle classes, pensioners etc. Their supporters do not like that FF is exactly the same as FG, so if they don't do a radical change (lead by someone like Jim O'Callaghan), they will be wiped out by SF.

    FG was in power for 4 years in a minority Government with an agreement on the Programme for Government with FG for those years. On the back of that, FF got back in the game. Why do you think that FF wouldn't have a similar arrangement with SF, particularly when SF & FF would have similar ideologies - much closer anyway than FG/FF were 15/20 years ago?



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    #9739
    Furze99
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986920#Comment_117986920

    Well they set about viciously cannibalising the Labour vote previously and largely succeeded. There's no love among parties of the so called left here. Other parties like PBP would also be under pressure but there's only so many votes in these groups to grab. So SF need to go after the middle ground and their principal strategy at the moment is to chip away and undermine the FF vote.

    No great fan of Coveney but fair dues to him if he can put his fingers in his ears and attend this church service in Armagh on our behalf. He'll be slaughtered though - a case of needing a stiff back and two fingers to the begrudgers inc president Higgins. The idea that representatives of all three government parties would go is also a good one, to spread the abuse.



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    #9740
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987254#Comment_117987254

    No idea why he would get abuse, apart from the usuals. If people want a United Ireland they need to at least make an attempt with both sides of the community. SF as the biggest party in Ireland and part of the Assembly in Northern Ireland should be attending.

    I didn't see anyone complaining with Arlene went to a GAA match in Monaghan. Seems some people expect the unionist community in Northern Ireland to just disappear, it won't and it shouldn't.



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    #9741
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,450 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986896#Comment_117986896

    fantastical idea that FF are really secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners

    FF as a whole may not be "secretly dying to jump into bed with the Shinners" but many of them are at least willing to contemplate the possibility

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-f%C3%A9in-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483

    And that's only the ones who were willing to stick their head above the parapet this year.

    As for

    why on earth would SF have any interest in going into government with FF? 

    You play the hand the electorate dealt you. As you say SF's strong preference would be for a broad left government not involving FF or FG but if the numbers are not there for that they are pragmatic enough to look at other options. They were certainly jumping on any signs of encouragement from FF after the last election.

    Mr Doherty said he welcomed the fact that Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin has apparently softened his stance towards coalition with Sinn Féin adding “they have now recognised that this election has changed everything”.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30981166.html



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    #9742
    Furze99
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987276#Comment_117987276

    Agree but politicians and commentators here are great at sniffing the wind and spouting what they think people want to hear. They'll run with the hare and hunt with the hounds on issues like this, talk out of every possible side of their mouths. Already this morning you can hear the commentary: "Coveney could go............ but I wouldn't go myself" In other words you're screwed if you do and screwed if you don't.



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    #9743
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987216#Comment_117987216

    FF will not survive if they go into coalition with SF as the junior partner, that would be the worst thing they could possibly do and would be the end of the party. Going into opposition is their only hope if SF are to lead the government.

    SF have promised the sun, the moon and the stars to voters. Going into opposition against that, and holding them to their promises, will be infinitely better than going into coalition and having the old "well the only reason SF aren't delivering on all their promises is because FF are not letting them".

    I do not see anything other than FF and FG opposing any SF led government, any other scenario just makes no sense whatsoever.



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    #9744
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987350#Comment_117987350

    They don't need to go into coalition with SF. Confidence and Supply agreement would do the job as it did the job for FG in the 2016 Government. That helped FF increase its vote, not lose it which is what will happen if they want to stick with FG.

    SF have not promised the sun moon and stars to anyone and nor do people want them to. What is wanted is for them to sort out housing and health as its not working. Seriously, Leo siding with the landlord class vulture funds last week! Thats the promise SF voters will want. Fix housing and health.



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    #9745
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987324#Comment_117987324

    The same people will be shouting about a United Ireland the next week. Most people will just look and laugh at them



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    #9746
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987254#Comment_117987254

    It was FG (and FF previously) that destroyed Labour. Note they have kept out of Government this time.

    The Greens are an all-Ireland party - are their NI contingent attending?



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    #9747
    dudley72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭dudley72


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987388#Comment_117987388

    I think you need to check out the "not promised the sun moon and stars", based on what they are saying that is exactly what they are doing.

    Can we get over the buzz words to try and get a reaction, not all landlord have multiple properties and people should be very wary if they continue to make landlords the enemy. You can't have rental properties without landlord



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    #9748
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987388#Comment_117987388

    SF have promised hundreds of thousands of cheap houses and reductions and freezes in rent. They have promised free GPs, free prescriptions, massive health budget increases, increases in services.

    All without taxing the majority of people a cent more. Good luck to them.

    FF would be absolutely insane to go in as junior party to any such government, as they are guaranteed to get the blame when promises are not met.

    It won't happen, it's not an option. It would be a mockery. Vote for change, get half of the current government.



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    #9749
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,450 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987350#Comment_117987350

    'Will not survive' is a bit strong but I agree any deal with SF would not benefit FF in the medium to long term. SF would see any such deal as a 'temporary little arrangement' and would not encourage their voters to transfer to FF. While all the anti-SF voters would flock to FG.



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    #9750
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,787 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987541#Comment_117987541

    Everything you have quoted in your first paragraph has already been promised by FFG plus bonuses for PS and bank holidays. And all prefaced by Varadakar stating no increase in taxes.


    So what is the problem with SF stating something similar?



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    #9751
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,800 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117987588#Comment_117987588

    Can you link me please?

    For what it's worth, I don't have a problem. They are looking to win votes, this tactic works.

    The only discussion I am having here is about how SF would get into government, and how coalition building when you are political marmite is difficult.



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