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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Furthermore, the electorate here are not asked to vote on a potential coalition.

    If a coalition government is formed after an election, as it usually is here now, the public have not voted for that coalition. Many Green voters were horrified with the party for going into bed with FG and FF.

    Is that democracy?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,444 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    All the cases where FF won less than 50% of the vote but formed a majority government date from before 1979, when constituency boundaries were (in effect) drawn up by the Minister for Local Government of the day and there was some scope for gerrymandering. The scope was limited, but it was enough to enable a party in power to arrange matters so that, if it secured more than about 45% of the vote, it could get more than 50% of the seats.

    Since constituency boundaries have been drawn up by an independent commission, the incumbent's gerrymandering advantage has disappeared. It's still mathematically possible for a single party to get more than 50% of the seats with significantly less than 50% of the vote, but it's not a situation that can be engineered and in practice its pretty unlikely to happen.

    (It's true that FG did particularly well in 2011, securing 45% of the seats with 35% of the vote. But that happened because all the cards fell just right for them; they were lucky in count after count after count. It's not the case that another 2-4% of the vote could have secured them 8 extra seats; pretty much all the seats that they were close to getting the had already got, and in every constituency they were well short of getting one extra seat, which they would have needed to do in 8 more constituencies.

    If they had got, say, an extra 10% of the vote they might have done it. But, even then, they would have needed all the cards to fall just right for them in all the close races.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    What? You absolutely are misinterpreting things. In 2011 FG got 36.1% but then was only able to form a majority government with Labour who also had 19.5% which equals? 55.6% which is a majority.

    Also ill just point out as you may not be aware that those voter percentages only detail first preference votes and because of the complexity of our voting system it is in no way an accurate or fair view of how people may have voted down their ballot sheet.

    Basically how many TDs were elected on 2nd 3rd or 4th preference votes? Show me those numbers display a majority didn't vote for the government that was formed and ill start to take you seriously.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    honestly the single biggest change PR voting would do to British (and American politics) is that it would stop politicians treating heir political opponents as evil incarnate out to destroy the country. It actually encourages the reaching across the aisles working together that the Americans keep promising they'll do every election cycle and never do.


    If you consider that a good thing or not is your own mileage, I understand a lot of people dont like it when FF and FG work together, it does create sometimes uncomfortable optics or create the impression of a political elite.


    But after living in both Ireland and the UK, I'll take that over the sh*te they have here where every party is out for themselves and the mud slinging is constant on all levels. I expect on the ground there to be a fair bit of mud slinging, but at the very least when it comes to running the country they are more then capable of working together without trying to backstab each other constantly.

    It also encourages the very obvious common sense of moderate politicians banding together to block what they perceive as extremist (as we see constantly in Germany where AFD is constantly put out in the cold by all the moderate parties isolating them) again that is your own mileage but I'd expect if the UK was running a similar system UKIP would have gotten the same treatment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    God im so fed up of this bullshit argument, anyone still pretending a coalition is not a possibility of what they are voting for needs to grow the hell up.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Again, I don't know why you're being so dramatic and nasty with your comments.

    Just a quick look and the 1965 and 69 election produced FF majority governments where they didn't win 50% of the popular vote.

    The point I was making about 2011, which maybe you don't get, is that had Fg just won a little bit more, they could have formed a majority gov.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Yep and you can always decide to never vote for them again if you don't like the coalition they formed

    They won 47% of first preference votes but enough voted down the list to give them a majority so a majority did vote for them. I think you already understand this though and think others might be stupid enough to be fooled by misinformation



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Do you honestly not know how our election system works? Again that statistic you are quoting is for ONLY first preference votes. If you actually understood it you would know that only a proportion of TDs are elected from these first preference votes.

    Lets just take one constituency from 2011 at a glance, Dublin South, out of this 5 seat constituency only 1 TD got in alone on first preference votes, Shane Ross in count 1 took 23% of the vote. However all 3 of FG's TD's that were eventually elected in this constituency weren't elected until the end of the 8th count meaning they benefited from multiple 2nd, 3rd, 4th and lower preference votes as the losing candidates were removed from the counts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    He understands it perfectly but it suits the argument better if he pretends not to. Can't understand why anyone would be so bothered about defending FPTP though unless of course it's the old the English do everything better stuff.

    It won't change anytime soon in the UK though because even if one major party backed PR it would end up in the old pounds and ounces style rows about the glory days of empire



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    At what point was I defending the British system ?

    I'm merely pointing out that PR isn't without flaws.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Oh fair enough. I mean no system is perfect I think we can all agree on that.

    Having lived with both I'll happily take the minor flaws of PR over my years of living in an ultra safe seat inhabited by Kate Hoey



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Michael Lowry tops the poll in Tipperary in every election. No system is perfect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Every system has flaws however the flaws you are claiming ours has are being grossly over exaggerated by you when you are only referencing the first preference percentages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Ha good point. In truth though parish pump politicians are created by the voter not the system



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    If we're comparing the two systems at the moment this is where we're at.

    In Ireland there is no effective opposition.Dissent from the coalition-agreed agenda is rare.Apart from trying to snipe bits off each other occasionally they all stick together when the unfortunate glare of publicity lands on them over their behaviour.All of this would be bearable if the Irish media showed its teeth occasionally but it rarely does.The media here is generally pro-Establishment,whoever the establishment is.The united aim of all involved is to keep Sin Fein and, by assocication, the IRA Army Council, out of power.I would argue that coalition governments, the almost inevitable outcome of PR, are generally bad governments for voters as they're is rarely anyone to hold them to account.For instance all three main parties in the coalition fought the last election on a policy of determined opposition to the removal of Ireland's 12.5% Corporate Tax rate. This is currently being dismantled with barely a peep from anyone particularly the media.

    The UK, on the other hand, rarely has coalitions and has a media that likes to tear shreds out of whichever party is in power.And there is nearly always a vocal opposition who see there job as to hold those in government to account at every available opportunity.Every five years or so the public has a chance to sling them out on their ear if they don't do what they promised and frequently do.The only party that really bangs on about PR is the Liberal Democrats and no-one really takes them seriously.One other advantage of FPTP is the importance of the middle ground of floating voters.It ensures the country has never had an extreme left or right wing government and rarely if ever elects extremists as MPs.It's not the most perfect system of representation but it does seem to have worked for quite a long time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    "Rarely if ever elects extremists."

    Hmm, check out Lee Anderson of Ashfield or Sally Ann Hart from Hastings. From advocating council tenants are put in tents and made pick potatoes to the disabled being paid below the minimum wage because "they don't understand money" apparently, these are elected mps who hold some extreme and abhorrent views. Anderson had been under investigation by Labour for antisemitism before he jumped ship to the tories and got himself elected in 2019.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    You resorted to insults and dramatic statements.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    As A thurles man I can safely say that has nothing to do with the system and everything to do with the fact that Lowry dominates Thurles politically. In the eyes of many there he can do no wrong and they will send him back again and again regardless of what he does



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Under the UK system, independents hardly ever get elected.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    Micheal Lowry is about as independent as the Crimea. The man has years of Fine Gael prominance that he used to sow his status in thurles. He may have been kicked out of the party officially but practically he has just mustered on business as usual in thurles with little difference. He's only not in Fine Gael to save the party face everywhere else.


    As far as thurles is concerned a vote for Lowry is a vote for fine gael, only better cause it's Lowry and sure he's always looked out for the town.


    makes me gag but it has nothing to do with it bring PR or FPTP. It's no different to a local liked mp changing parties in the UK and still getting elected off their local politics. Which we've seen with MPS jumping from tory to lib dem or ukip or vice versa.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I know it's 100 years ago now but Churchill was derided by many in his time for his 20 year stint in the Liberals in between his 2 periods as Tory MP



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    If I insulted you report the post, I don't see any insults in any of the posts ive made replying to you though.

    Regarding dramatic statements you were intentionally misinterpreting and lying about voting statistics to try claim pr/stv is as undemocratic or even more so than FPtP. I called you out on your lies, if you want to call that dramatic from your perspective I can suggest you just don't do it in future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    Oh I don't doubt the odd MP comes out with a head-banger comment occasionally - in the case of Hart it was before she was elected as an MP and her constituents didn't seem to care too much.But if you looks across Europe the really dangerous extremists at both ends of the spectrum thrive under proportional representation.

    In terms of PR it's only ever really an argument put forward by political parties who would otherwise have no hope of gaining power.Like the Liberal Democrats who in their coalition with the Tories proved the point that it's always the party making up the numbers who invariably get stung by being in coalition.The LibDems 100% U-turn on university tuition fees has consigned them to the history books.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The posts got deleted.

    I'm not responding to more of your dramatic over the top statements, like something you'd hear in a far right conference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I am with you up to a point. I think you have to bear in mind that we have a home Secretary at the moment exhorting officials to "turn back the boats" and a government pushing through a crime bill that, among other things, seeks to clamp down on the democratic right to protest. I mean, tory politicians can call themselves moderates or even liberals, but fact is, in standing behind that bill they are sponsoring some pretty extreme measures by any account.

    Also, I think we can say there are extremist elements in every country, the difference been some countries choose to enable them to gain a foothold in the electoral process. One advantage of this is you have them in the open where you can directly challenge them and defeat them. In other words, they are inside the tent and transparent as opposed to be outside it, chucking in all manner of effluent! Different ways of looking at it, i suppose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    No it didnt, none of my posts from yesterday have been deleted, so get off your high horse and retract the false claim i insulted you.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    More disappointment for Labour who were hoping its annual conference might facilitate a Starmer breakthrough.


    Tory lead up to 10 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times, with Labour unchanged.

    CON 41 (+1)

    LAB 31 (nc)

    LD 9 (nc)

    GREEN 8 (-1)

    REFORM UK 4 (nc)


    Best PM:


    JOHNSON 31 (nc on September)

    STARMER 25 (-1)

    NOT SURE 41 (+2)

    Most other polling companies are averaging a 4% lead for the Tories.

    Midway through the election cycle this must be hugely disappointing for the Labour leadership.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    Oof, things just even grimmer for Labour.

    A Kantar poll out in the last hour gives the Tories a hefty 13% lead over Labour.

    CON: 43% (+6)

    LAB: 30% (-4)

    LDM: 11% (-3)

    GRN: 6% (+1)

    RFM: 1% (-1)

    An election fought today on these numbers would give the Tories a 90 seat majority.



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