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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    53% or 56% is not a great uptake percentage though.

    I do not know why your husband must be vaccinated to stay in the US.Is it due to the policy of the company he works for, or is it mandated in general by the federal government



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,207 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    We need it for immigration so yes, the government and he will need it for his job at some point also no doubt. I also need to be vaccinated but he shouldn't if he has already had covid, especially within such a recent time frame.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Our only indications for the winter come from Nolan, who suggested COVID will be at a low level until December. Countries having plans doesn't mean they plan to use them just as our extension of regulations doesn't mean we will reimpose them.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    But who would listen to a word out of that mans mouth.

    Did he predict what would happen last christmas, oh that was Delta, wasnt it.

    Where are we at with his modelling fir September now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Last Christmas was Alpha and yeah they've been very off for this period. In times where cases have been stable the models are OK plus they are what the government will use for decisions on reimposing restrictions.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,612 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I wonder if the "risk" of COVID is being brought into account, i.e. given that a relatively low % of people have been infected at all, those that were infected are more likely to have engaged in risky behaviour that caused them to be infected, thus getting them vaccinated reduces the risk to others of people who exhibit risky behaviours.

    (understanding that a lot of people will have been infected through absolutely no fault of their own).

    There is also the aspect of their country, their rules, get vaccinated or don't come over.

    From a science perspective, vaccine then infected is going to generate a pretty strong immune response, infected then vaccine will also generate a similar level of immunity.

    Just vaccines will be more than enough for most non-vulnerable people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Nyero


    Very well put. An absolute disgrace that Nolan fella, reminds me of Austin Hughes the "economist" the time of the crash.

    Got loads of airtime but when his predictions fell apart nobody called him out on it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I could never understand how he got so much airtime, he isnt a Public Health Expert,he is an academic in Maynooth.

    The very best thing about covid becoming just another virus is the possibility that we should not have to see or listen to Nolan again.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    By risky behaviour I presume you mean young people meeting up with their pals, seriously,what did you expect them to do.

    Everyone is going to get covid, hundreds of thousands of people got it and had no symptoms. Double vaccinated people are getting it and will pass it on, old and very obese people, tripled vaccinated, boostered up to their eyeballs will get it and die, life goes on.

    If you think people will shun each other in the longterm, well, I have news for you, they wont, they will socialise, engage in what you call risky behaviour😄😀

    You can tut tut all you like.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,738 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    I'm getting married next May & praying this winter and Christmas goes smoothly but just have that feeling come the 1st of January we will be going back into a lockdown with restriction back in place,

    Looks like we will end up only living our lives in the Summer & once winters hit back to lockdowns ,

    As they say in game of throne "winter is coming "



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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Not what anyone is saying at all BTW, just a close eye on winter and plenty of talk about potential plans for it. We may get a lot of flu seeing as we hid from it last year but unless we see another alarming COVID VOC it should all begin to recede.



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    Honestly our hospitals and how they cope will determine if another lockdown happens. I think Xmas this year will be back to normal with people having parties and mixing and if we get through that and out the other side of January without a massive surge then Covid is in our rear view mirror for good. If with our frankly fantastic vaccination rate the hospitals struggle i don't want to even think about the consequences for peoples mental health if the government go with another lockdown.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There was an item on Drivetime yesterday about nurses in Vincents speaking out about the conditions they are working in and staffing levels.

    I would pay an awful lot more attention to what those in the hospitals are actually witnessing than what Philip Nolan and his modelling is saying, his models have no credibility now after what he portrayed in July.

    Its not even mid October yet and nurses are stating wards are being opened and there is no one to staff them. Staff are being recruited from overseas but there is a huge problem with retention of staff, the staff are demoralised and burned out, I wonder what the sick leave levels are like.

    I cant see us not going back into lockdown by December, if nurses are finding life very difficult now how will they cope when elderly vaccinated people get covid and this is going to happen unless elderly people stay at home. The only way we will survive the winter is if those vulnerable to covid avoid other people, this is the reality as we cant stop education, normal working and normal socialising for the rest of the population every winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    That is not a new US requirement just because of Covid. Since 1996 every immigrant entering the US must show proof that they have been vaccinated against vaccine-preventable diseases. Covid is now just added to the list that already includes Mumps, Measles, Polio, Rubella, Hepatitis B, Pertussis, Tetanus and Diphtheria Toxoids, and Haemophilus influenza type B.

    Far as I know unlike here many companies in the US have the right to ask for proof of employees vaccination status.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    "plenty of talk about potential plans for it"

    Asa matter of interest what exactly are the plans for winter, I havent seen any detail on whats planned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It will be variations on the effective surge plan they used last winter. If needs be regulations will be waiting on the shelf and some restrictions could be reapplied. That's about the extent of it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Last winter we were locked down for six weeks In October and locked down again from before New Year for six months.

    This year everything is supposed to be back to normal from october 22nd. The staff werent burn out last year, hospitals had never been quieter until the christmas period, we are going into winter now with burnt out staff, not enough of them and wards being opened so more work for staff already unable to cope.

    We have hundreds of people getting late diagnoses of cancer because either they couldnt get a GP appointment or they sat at home afraid to seek medical help due to RTE reporting non stop on covid. We have thousands more needing expert mental help and its not there, there is literally nowhere to go if a family member develops depression.

    "It will be variations" isnt exactly reassuring, its now almost mid October, flu season is coming and we know vaccinations dont prevent transmission of covid.

    Winter is going to be a nighmare, it was chilling listening to what the intensive care nurse in Vincents had to say yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,293 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Might as well just give up at this stage if the only option for hospital overcrowding is to shut down the country and only allow us out for essential reasons

    Its not the person working retail who's fault it is that the health service is shite but it's people like that who will see the brunt of it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    In the period cover by the projection below we had 120,000 cases and 250 deaths

    The projection was based on a quicker reopening



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,050 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but in the rugby Connacht V Ulster has been moved to Landsdowne Road on October 23rd with no capacity restrictions. Think this will be the first such event in the state?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The thing is covid is not a vaccine-preventable disease. You are still potentially contagious and can be infected and die from covid, even if vaccinated.

    If somehow the US had stamped out covid and then let in vaccinated individuals, it could start epidemics. Unlike other vaccinations which give near sterilizing immunity.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If the numbers go sky high and the hospitals are overwhelmed and RTE go into overdrive then people will lock themselves away anyway.

    We always had overwhelmed hospitals and people died of flu, RTE didnt announce flu deaths on the hour every hour, they werent being paid to do so, they got Five million from the Government last year so covid was their bread and butter.

    If we accept there will be high numbers of covid deaths and RTE doesnt focus on this to the detriment of everything else then we will get through the winter.

    We dont really have a choice now, we have vaccines and hopefully better treatments. The problem is vaccines dont stop transmission and for a certain cohort vaccines are useless,these people will get covid just like we all will but due to weakened immune systems covid will make some very sick so a hospital bed is required,the issue will be the length of time some of these people will spend in hospital, it could be months and then the waiting lists grow longer and longer.

    Its all very depressing especially when you look at the billions we have spent since March 2020.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so



    No evidence that will happen and we will generally be looking at managing both COVID and flu side by side. That's where the surge plan comes in and it will take a lot more pressure on hospitals for them to look at bringing back restrictions. As for those ICU nurses, they may be right about their own locality but have no clue about the national situation.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Doesn't a 'normal' Winter involve the health system bursting at the seams with corridors full of people who can't get a bed in a ward?

    In the UK the NHS are warning they could reach near capacity with a resurgence of the winter flu.

    I can't see our media and politicians holding their nerve if that happens here. There will be a clamour for restrictions, followed by... restrictions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Nyero


    So basically he gave 5 predictions knowing one of them would be reasonably correct.

    He got 4 wrong if we want to play that game.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Their locality is in the heart of the most populated area of the country.

    They are also a large teaching hospital and they take cases from all over the country.

    The point is the winter plan last year is now outdated,it was based on very severe restrictions, for months people coouldnt go outside two kilometres of their home and then it was five kilometres. I know people who kived within eight kilometres of an empty beach and didnt go to it, thats how brainwashed people were.

    If you have wards open in October and not enough staff to man them in one of the busiest hospitals in Dublin then we have a serious problem on our hands.

    Nothing Philip Nolan has to say brings any comfort.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,050 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    This is true but if you are vaccinated you will be less symptomatic and less coughing and sweating means less chance for the virus to pass on from you so effectively vaccines do reduce transmission rates



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    A normal hospital year includes people who are genuinely sick, those who have no drop down facilities to be moved to and unfortunately relatives effectively dumping people in hospital. A&E, of course, can also be full of people who are not very sick and really should be going to a GP or a primary clinic, of which we have very few. Add in winter respiratory cases and it all gets even more chaotic.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You can multiply those cases by a factor of ten, we have no idea how many people have had covid as so many would have had no symptoms and others wouldnt have gone for tests for fear the puritanical type would say they had engaged in "risky behaviour" and got the virus through their own fault.

    The projections appeared to not take vaccinations or seasonality into consideration and you can combine that with the fact that many elderly people will rarely leave their homes again. Its this cohort that will end up in hospital, the young can get get covid and it will be a head cold.

    In any event the projections made no sense in early July and they still dont, no one advised the Government that cases could be in their thousands over the christmas period so as far as I am concerned the modelling is useless and the less we hear from Philip Nolan the better.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,356 ✭✭✭corcaigh07




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