The Irish protocol.

Johnson et al may appear to encourage this "buffoon" act, but extremely shrewd operators and I am of the same thinking as you. Make NI Irelands problem, sever the limb that is bleeding them annually and blame the EU. Win on all fronts and stir up the 'bulldog spirit' of old; UK again the Gerries all over again.

He resigned but where did he end up after it all.....

Ddi you read this thread all the way to the end, Downcow? Its conclusion is this:

"In sum, the EU is in a really difficult/disadvantaged position on the Protocol. But if the UK tries to exploit that, the EU will basically sit on the UK until it cries 'mercy'."

The gist if it is that, if the UK walks away from the agreement it has made, that will be painful for the EU and there are no options which are easy for the EU that will be effective to put manners on the UK. But the options which are open to the EU that will be effective to put manners on the UK are extremely painful to the UK,

In other words, if the UK provokes a trade war, it could get nasty. But it's likely to be a lot nastier for the UK than it is for the EU. Therefore, the UK is playing a very high-stakes game here.

The problem is that the Uk "holding its nerve" and the UK displaying "simple common sense" are not the same thing. There's a Brexiter article of faith that the UK acting psychotic gets the EU to make concessions, and therefore the UK should continue to act psychotic. But the UK acting psychotic is pretty much the opposite of the UK displaying simple common sense.

Simple common sense would involve the the UK trying to make a success of the deal that it negotiated, hailed as a triumph, secured a general election mandate for, signed, ratified and enacted into law. They should hold their nerve and implement that deal, instead of trying to pander to the looney wing of the Tory party and their DUP lickspittles. They should display simple common sense and make use of the mechanisms built into the deal to negotiate improved implementation instead of casting around for new reasons to run shrieking like a demented banshee from any approach by the EU.

Yes — and where easing was always available, and was expressly provided for in the Protocol itself.

Brexit cheerleaders will claim that, as a result of all the performative psychosis, the UK will now get a better deal, more generous easements, from the EU than would have been the case if they had simply engaged with the process straight off. Such a claim is impossible to improve or disprove. But we should reflect that exactly this claim was made in relation to the shenanigans the UK engaged in before they agreed the WA, and the wonderful concession they won through those shenanigans is the very NIP that they now denounce as unacceptable and not fit for purpose. So, on their own evidence, the track record of the performative psychosis strategy is not good.

I have no doubt that the UK is acting in bad faith. Unfortunately, the Eu must accept, until it is proven otherwise, that the UK is attempting to negotiate a solution.

< Quoting is very difficult on this new forum>

Perigrinous wrote

"They should hold their nerve and implement that deal, instead of trying to pander to the looney wing of the Tory party and their DUP lickspittles. They should display simple common sense and make use of the mechanisms built into the deal to negotiate improved implementation instead of casting around for new reasons to run shrieking like a demented banshee from any approach by the EU"

FrancieBrady wrote

"You have to ask where all the histrionic sham war talk has gotten the UK - a few proposals on easing the Protocol. Whoop de whoop."

Perigrinous wrote

"Brexit cheerleaders will claim that, as a result of all the performative psychosis, the UK will now get a better deal, more generous easements, from the EU than would have been the case if they had simply engaged with the process straight off. Such a claim is impossible to improve or disprove"

By pandering to the UK though, the EU is probably going too far in trying to get a solution. We understand that Sefcovic has been working on proposals for months now. which will be rejected and the UK will create another red line, i.e. The role of the court. The message to the UK though is that your histrionics are working and we respond by spending huge resources pandering to your whims.. Coveney's twitter storm doesn't help. Frost must be delighted that his position is getting such reaction. And Coveney repeating conversations with Sefcovic ( on RTE this morning) does not do anything to help Selcovic in his job. Perhaps someone should take Coveney's phone from him! ( He scuppered the backstop by taking to making a premature announcement too. Is he afraid he might get be sidelined by an agreement)

I imagine EU patience must be running thin. It would make sense, if the new concessions are not agreed by the UK, that the EU move to put a border in Ireland, impose targeted sanctions on UK and wait . Ofcourse Irealnd would argue for more time but at this time it is hard to see how

Speculation in UK media in tha past few weeks would suggest that Johnson would be happy to ditch Frost and make an agreement. But Johnson will also be aware of the potential for more anti EU rhetoric that Frost can provide. The EU, and the Irish government, need to convince Johnson that Frosts behaviour will get no where. And that includes not having a Twitter war of words with him.

The UK intention is obviously the complete step by step dismantling of the protocol by attrition. I would say Frost is thinking once any kind of concession is achieved the floodgates of possibility will open and bit by bit it's taken apart instead of all at once, which would be too bitter a pill to swallow.

Since the beginning the EU has gone out of its way to treat the NI question as sensitively as possible and to not threaten the UK directly in order to preserve harmony and relations but the way things are going now I only see this being resolved by a race to the bottom. They talk about article 16 this and that. I say let them do it, let them feel the full force and consequence of their actions, trade war and all. It's literally like a war, you go into it with a heavy heart knowing there is no other way. This can't go on forever.

I suppose it (appeasement) makes sense for "us" (Ireland, Irish govt.) because we will get hurt, and god knows what happens to NI when these efforts by the EU to placate the UK finally run into a wall. The time and energy spent on it by the EU is depressing though as it seems to be just a dance or choreography that has to be gone through. I do pity those poor EU civil servants busy coming up with proposals and plans to get the Great British sausages where they are needed, and then they get shat on by Lord Frost via the Tory "noise machine" before they even really see the light of day.

Post-Brexit Trade on the islands of Great Britain and Ireland : lose-lose, win-lose, win-win?

The trade figures released by the CSO show a striking change in post-Brexit trade patterns between the Republic of Ireland on the one hand and Northern Ireland and Great Britain on the other: The value of exports in goods from Ireland to Great Britain increased by 20% during the first six months of 2021 compared to the first six months of 2020, while its exports to Northern Ireland increased even by 43%. Conversely, Great British exports to Ireland decreased by 32% (see table 4).

Looking at the trade figures by product group provides further clues about the impact of Brexit had on East-West and North-South trade on the islands of Great Britain and Ireland. A first category of products shows a lose-lose pattern. Food and live animals fall into that category: Exports from GB to the Republic declined by a staggering 50.42% and exports from Ireland to GB declined too, albeit only by 6.89% compared to the first six months of 2020.

Most sectors, however, show a win-lose pattern, i.e. Irish exports have increased while British exports have decreased. This is the case regarding products such as beverages and tobacco (Irish exports to GB increasing 22.43%, while British exports to the Republic of Ireland decreased by 31.82%). Similar win-lose patterns can be observed for crude materials, chemicals and manufactured goods of all sorts. Across all categories, excluding commodities, Ireland has seen a 19.70% increase in exports to GB, while GB has seen its exports to Ireland plummet by 29.85%.

The only type of product where the picture is rosier from a British perspective concerns mineral fuels and lubricants. Here, British exports have increased 13.82%, although Irish exports to GB have increased by more in percentage terms (19.42%). This is the only win-win product category in bilateral trade, and most likely driven mainly by oil price rather than increased export activity.

What’s in it for NI?

Contrary to Great Britain, Northern Ireland is currently one of the post-Brexit trade winners. The CSO’s figures show that Northern Irish exports to the republic increased by a staggering 78% between January and June 2021, compared to the same period in 2020 (Table 4 here).

https://encompass-europe.com/comment/post-brexit-trade-patterns-an-opportunity-for-northern-ireland

I don’t like that logic at all. You are assuming that somehow a collapsed economy north of our border wouldn’t effect those of us south of the border. A strained or collapsed economy would bring back the criminal element in vast numbers. I’m under no illusion at all that Boris would happily chuck NI under a wheel to get his own way. The NI politicians, in my opinion, were handed a golden goose at the time (straddling both GB and EU markets) by Theresa May and decided to crush it. As I recall, most of NI businesses and farmers were quite happy with the offer.

Morality aside, the tactic of encouraging NI back into a united Ireland through systematic economic punishment beatings is not likely to work.