Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

But the institutional investors take around 90% of new build apartments over the past few years (I can't find a link to it right now as I'm out walking) so while they make up a small proportion of the overall market they are hoovering up all the newly built apartments which is a problem.

The oil comment above is an important one from what I understand, it could be the inflation straw that breaks the QE/low interest rate camel's back, depending how it goes over the coming months.

Because most irish people can’t afford the construction costs of a new build apartment even if the land was free.

Regarding build costs

these houses are guided “in their 700’s”. While on a road the location could be described as fairly desirable

the site with full pp was sold for 750k (you can click affordability and it still show old ask). 19&20 are for combined 760k in land registry

so it’s 750k for a plot for 4 houses in their 700’s. Ie land costs are indeed 25% (this will be above average for dunlin and well above irish average)

you can add in, that work hasn’t even started there as it’s probably too expensive for the builder to break even now.

I love the property description that lists off all the taxpayer funded amenities on the door stop of those advertised properties. We really need to be capturing more of the value when land is zoned to residential.

A good starting point would be recouping the cost of services such as water, power connections provision of roads and street lighting.

If this was financed by the jump in value from rezoning it would go along way to making housing affordable.

but it appears millmount terrace, doesn't even have front garden/parking

Construction costs can go both ways.

what about Biden’s trillion dollar infrastructure? not a single shovel has been moved yet.

and the entire EU recovery fund…. Don’t italy want to redo their entire rail system to go green? Can you imagine the amount of EE labourers going that way? Guaranteed 5y employment, possibly much lower cost of living and tax rates than ireland etc. The multi year demand of cement, steel etc.

Theoretically we should have enough workers without EE immigration, but a lot of the current arrivals are in the front queue when it comes to asking for free housing & social justice and the entire Eoin O’Broin bandwagon but are oddly at the back of the queue when it comes to putting on the work boots every day on a building site…

Biden is expected to be a lame duck president very soon due to the dynamics of American politics.

Italy has significant financial and economic issues. It's interesting that they can invest in such projects and we can't build enough houses for our people where the vast majority would pay for the cost through affordable rent or outright purchase.

Where are you getting your data on migrants. I thought most were coming here for work and most are covering their housing costs. Many high skilled jobs here are filled internationally.

I agree with his comments. Especially;

I'm not entirely sure what the reference to a requirement for "off balance sheet accounting" means in relation to social housing leases. Essentially; for some reason there is a requirement to not have assets/liabilities on the books of the local councils which they can do by by being tenants rather than landlords?

If it is a lease then the asset (house) and the debt are not recorded.

If the gov purchase houses it would be recorded and debt level would breach EU rules. (Which were relaxed for Covid)

it’s a crazy!!!

Well it’s not crazy from a German/Dutch etc perspective. These people don’t want to bail the irish out again. Most social housing is a permanent loss maker anyway (rents won’t even cover fraction of maintenance costs), hence the dilapidated status of most existing social housing stock.

if you can’t live within your means you have to cut entitlements instead of burdening other countries.

Capital infrastructure was the greatest cut in the budgets to bail out the financial sector.

It shows why we need to fight this sector when that very same sector that was bailed out is now swooping in to exploit the capital under spend that helped save it

again, look at the facts, again, presented! the global crash of 08 was primarily due to excess credit creation, we ran our economies on this excess credit, and the rest is history.... there is now overwhelming evidence globally that supports this, again, presented! greece is a perfect example of this collapsing approach, i.e using public debt to effectively prop up these failures, these are the primary reasons why our current approach to housing is failing, i.e. primarily fire sector lead economies, again, all facts, all backed by data and respected research.

the euro has serious fundamental flaws, one being not having an effective surplus recycling mechanism such as america and australia, countries such as ireland cant use their central banks to adjust rates. again, the only way around this is by running deficits and creating our own public financial institutions etc etc

yes, public debt can of course cause serious crashes, but theres now overwhelming evidence globally to suggest, private debt causes far more frequent and far more serious crashes, data presented!

I agree the rule is a good idea in principle if all countries abide by it but from day one we saw financial gymnastics with private partnerships to get around it.

What they really need to do is split the debt to capital investment and running the country.

Leasing properties when it is cheaper to buy is just a waste of money.

jesus, these are not my 'theories', this research comes from respected sources, both academically and non academically, i.e. im just the messenger!

yes, public money can cause issues, as mentioned, but in a modern developed economy such as ours, these issues are highly unlikely, baring i mind, our current inflationary issues are primarily related to serious supply side shocks.

i have limited knowledge of Argentina, but i believe most such cases are primarily due to similar supply side shocks/issues, and nations running their economies on debt in foreign currencies, i.e. dollar based economies etc

there is in fact no such thing as a free market, all markets interact with state institutions, globally, and theres also sufficient evidence to support, stronger state interaction in certain markets, actually creates more stable markets, Singapore and its property markets being a perfect example.

yes, id absolutely agree, money creation in both the public and private domains, which is used in non productive means, does indeed lead to inflation in markets, our property markets are a perfect example of this, as thats exactly what we ve been experiencing, i.e. property price inflation from both the private sector money supply, i.e. credit supply, and public sector supplies, qe, etc etc

the only way to break this cycle of a primarily private sector money supply, is to run perpetual deficits, and become more reliant on public money supplies, public financial institutions etc, if we dont, we remain stuck in this positive feedback loop of ever rising property and land prices. but of course we must also implement other measures to reduce this rate of growth of prices, and to bring it more inline with wage inflation, which is now completely out of sync, which in turn means, many workers simply cannot get access to property markets, in both rental and purchasing markets