Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Based on the last 18 months we can go to 2,000 cases in hospital if necessary but then everything stops. There doesn't seem to be any huge concern over our current hospitalisations at present and I've no idea at what level they might cause alarm.

Wasnt that when the private hospitals were taking non Covid patients and taking surgical cases from the public system .? As far as I know that arrangement is no longer in place .

Hopefully. Always a bit difficult when symptoms are so similar. Only real difference is the lack of taste/smell one. Coughs, sore throat, congested nose etc are pretty common across a bunch.

Let's hope we don't get anywhere near that again.

Yeah it seems to be 12 months or where certain metrics are reached. Story from March.

Yep. Flying around at the moment.

A lot of UK media have picked up on it; https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/24/return-of-the-common-cold-infections-surge-in-uk-as-autumn-arrives

Our own media are tentative to talk about it, largely because they're concerned that people will stop getting tested for covid. Back in February/March NPHET said there was nothing else going around, so if you feel sick, it's probably covid. But tens of thousands of children and parents who returned a negative test discovered that in fact, there are still colds in circulation.

And they always ramp up when the kids go back to school. Go get a test, but it's more than likely just a cold. Especially if you have kids.

Right, getting closer to addressing the elephant in the room

What happens if the ICU numbers keep rising ?

No point saying "new normal", "learn to live with it", "let it rip" if our health service cant cope.

Should the long term solution not be turning a facility like Citywest into an ICU/ventilation centre.

If not then the only other card our government have to play is Lockdown#4.

70% in ICU are unvaccinated. Maybe put the antivaxxers into lockdown? Would that be a good suggestion for your lockdown box?

LOL. This thread is about posters constantly looking for arguments for lockdowns. Thankfully these threads don’t reflect the reality out there with people moving on with their lives, including myself. Life couldn’t be better.

One way or another, another lockdown won't work. We know the primary spread occurs in close quarters; within households, in busy indoor spaces.

The fact of the matter is that there has always been an 80/20 issue with covid. That is, 80% of the infections are caused by 20% of the people. Those who take the least caution, who have the most close contacts. Those who held parties in their homes, who went to lock-ins, who ignore the need for covid certs.

There would also be a significant crossover between this 20%, and people who won't take vaccines.

So in the event that another lockdown went into force, the ones that we're locking down for - the unvaccinated - are also the ones least likely to bother restricting themselves. How would that message be sold? "You're locking down to protect the health service from the people who are too selfish to do it". Like a lead balloon. The demand would be to push back on the unvaccinated rather than punishing the rest of us for their selfishness.

There is a considerable surge capacity open to us, and the private hospitals are there too. Even if ICU numbers keep rising, they're not (yet) rising in the familiar exponential ramping curve that signals a loss of control. And they're unlikely to. This will be another jump to a flatline that will be maintained.

At 92% adult vaccination, to see an exponential surge would be massively out of step with everything we know. Even our current case levels are somewhat inexplicable in the context; most other countries with less vax rates have much lower case loads. The only explanation is our open mixing with the UK, who have similar but level ICU & hospitals numbers as the ones we're approaching. The UK has the equivalent of ~500 people in hospital in 80 in ICU, and has done for about 2 months.

So we will top-out as well.

I don't know why people are talking about lockdowns, it isn't lockdowns that are the problem, it is the far more insidious "restrictions".

Health service under its annual winter pressure and all the clapping on balconies not curing cancer fast enough, what do you do? Well maybe you bring back in the 11pm pub closing times to protect A+E departments, how could anybody argue against that? Don't you care about our front line heroes?

Kicking fathers out of hospitals, sending children home from schools, stopping people going to watch music or sports, all these have been done without being in LOCKDOWN, so why couldn't they be done again?

The world has never stopped for any pandemic in the past ( only temporary) Life will go on.