Will (or indeed should) the UK ever rejoin the EU?

As regards economics, the UK has raised the highest trade barriers in history with 50% of its trade. Outside of wartime, it's actions are without precedent. I seriously seriously question your economics knowledge if you can even suggest that won't have severe and uncompensatably bad effects on the UK economy. Seriously.

As regards the French - you go and believe whatever you want about Macron - if he truly is that powerful then we should be quaking in our boots and glad we have the EU to protect us from him & have him on our side.

As regards the Irish border - the UK was fully entitled to leave with or without a deal - Ireland however is perfectly entitled to say "UK shall keep its commitments to no hard border or else there will be no beneficial trade deal for the UK". You say that the current solution is unsustainable - when it is by far the most sustainable solution. A border with 300 crossings which took up 1 third of the British army and a large amount of the North sea wealth to maintain won't be sustainable. The only 2 other sustainable options are UK re entering the single market or a United Ireland.

Just because we have to listen to fabricated British narratives that it is "not working" - when the UK cannot set up GB borders because they would result in total chaos and the UK refused longer transition periods for NI to make it look bad - and the UK tries (and failed) to spark loyalist violence and the UK needs to bring forward its nonsense attacks on the protocol because the fuel, food & worker shortages etc etc are becoming too obvious to ignore - and the negative comparisons

On British BSE infections - you haven't been paying attention - it's back again & foreign markets for British beef are collapsing. That's EU & China gone - so obviously unscrupulous people will be more than happy to look to the now unprotected market next door with access to the EU.

Same economics effects work for UK sewage-seafood - they've lost their EU markets and Ireland is now unprotected .

Time will tell on the economics front but you are continuing to assume that all the UK is doing is increasing trade barriers.

The border agreement is a fudge, yes Brexit caused this problem but the Irish, EU and the UK signed a ridiculous agreement to try and tick every box, it will continue to cause problems until all sides agree a border (and not it doesn't have to be a big fence with soldiers) has to exist. They exist across the world. Yes a United Ireland gets rid of the problem and that may fix it but that is for the North to decide on. The reality is now the North is in the UK and the UK is outside the EU so therefore a border in some shape or form has to exist.

As for BSE one cow in Somerset , seriously?? Ireland had a BSE cow and China banned us for over a year if I remember correctly and only recently reinstated us. China being that paragon of food safety and an open free society, it's political....

Further on the economics argument: it isn't simply a question of trade deals either. The UK shrunk its market (for supplies, visa-free ready manpower) from 500 million people down to 70 million. Previously it could rely on logistic system redundancy shared with that 500 million - HGV drivers could come and go, etc. Now, that it is alone it needs to build massive amounts of otherwise useless and resource draining redundancy and storage at every step of its supply chains. All of that needs to be paid for by the British.

They also need to pay for tens of thousands of public and private sector customs agents plus their accommodation and other business expenses plus pay for vets etc.

Parroting Brexiter slogans of "you just have to wait 50 years" and "nobody gave true brexit a chance" is simply a denial of the basics of economics. I suppose as an faith based ideology it is something it shares that with communism.

I think Fash the issue with so much discussion on here and you are following the pattern is a lack of middle ground perspective.

The arguments for economic self harm that Brexit brings through increased trade barriers with the EU are sound but there is no willingness to see it may bring other benefits. And then you post comments above about empowering our corrupt secretive......etc etc and expect me to take it seriously and then one cow in Somerset turns into a plague of BSE infected meat.....just like Ireland didn't become a BSE infected hole when we had one cow with BSE a couple of years back.

And then your comment on loyalist criminal smuggling gangs, what are you talking about ?? They are hard at work currently, I believe there are only two options for the border. You either have one or you have a United Ireland and that is not our decision. Either way we will have a drugs / smuggling problem as we do today.

Brexit whether you like it or not has happened. We as Irish people can either continue on our current path of pouring scorn on it and forget the benefits of having 65 million people plus next door to us who are more than happy to buy our goods and visit us for holidays etc etc or be a touch more mature, take the higher moral ground and see how we can work with it. Ultimately I know which I would prefer to see but if you want to continue down the path feel free to do so. I just don't see how it benefits Ireland especially considering the shared history of these two islands.

For me it is time to change the tune but you do what you see fit.

1. As regards brexit "benefits", while I'm sure certain sections can argue for intangible benefits (just as North Korea can argue for the intangible benefits of not being connected to the rest of the world), from an economics perspective, there is no version of reality where brexit makes economic sense - unless a magical world of Narnia or a super wealthy undersea and populous Atlantis just off the shore of Scotland exists. Otherwise, no - the benefits are at best tiny the economic costs are vast as are the political and other costs - the inability to influence EU legislation affecting British manufacturers & service providers (and around the world), to speak internationally on behalf of Europe, to offer freedoms to its people and to valuable and sought after migrants who can go elsewhere, to send refugees back to France, to hold hassle-free international court cases, the loss of stability and push for independence of UK regions etc etc

As regards BSE- tell that to the Chinese who banned British beef. Again where is all of that worthless and partly BSE infected beef going to go now? Are you honestly suggesting it will not be sent to Northern Ireland? Are you honestly suggesting that the UK is (and will continue to be) operating the NI protocol rigorously?

Any border region brings particular opportunities for smuggling based on the customs arbitrage - that is a consequence of brexit reintroducing differing customs areas - are you suggesting that the loyalist smugglers are not going to exploit the opportunities of lowered checks?

As regards options, again there are 5:

1. An Irish sea border (which the UK chose);

2. An economic purgatory which the UK cannot survive;

3. A United Ireland;

4. No brexit;

5. A SM brexit (giving up control).

Those are the options facing the UK. It is, as you said, not for Ireland to choose on behalf of the UK. Of note, the only way for the UK to avoid a United Ireland and no brexit for long is to maintain a sea border. A hard border in Ireland would be rejected by the local population and kick off a relentless push on both sides of the border to bring about a United Ireland, would cost a fortune in military assets for the UK to patrol & would be occurring at the same time as the complete economic collapse of the UK & the final shredding of any international standing and friendships it had.

And I'll change my tune when the UK stops duplicitously reneging on agreements and trying to **** over Ireland. If the UK needs to be broken for that to occur - then so be it.

Edit: I would also note that in order for brexit to have been a success, the EU needed to be destroyed. When that didn't happen, there were only the 5 "humiliating" forms of brexit mentioned above. Brexiters real issue is with the humiliation that any form of realistic brexit brings to the UK - and the fact that admitting brexit was a stupid idea is itself humiliating.

- and what else do you call trying to duplicitously renege on various treaties in breach of international law to force Ireland out of the single market/to subject it to British control and to threaten to reignite violence if they do not get their way other than "trying to**** over". Why, when even the Americans & Kiwis amongst others have condemned UK behaviour, are you excusing it?

I am perfectly happy to see UK succeed - but not at expense of Ireland. As the UK wishes to force Ireland to bear the costs of the choices of its political elite, you are damned right that I view this as a "them or us" situation - where there is no cost too high that they need to bear for their own decisions. These are their choices- they need to live with them and they need to bear the cost - not us. If the cost to ensure that Ireland remains free and does not acquiesce to a permanent border through the country is the complete economic collapse of the UK (a mere 7% and falling of Irish exports) - that is price I'm happy to see the UK pay for its freely made choices.

Prior to EEC/EU membership, Irish exports were 90% to the UK and its currency was tied to sterling. Ireland was not independent. The UK decided to join the EEC - and Ireland was obliged to follow. The UK initially decided to join Schengen, Ireland followed, the UK then thought again - and Ireland copied it. If the UK made its threats to Ireland to starve the country and wage an economic war at that point, Ireland would have been forced to its knees.

Ireland hasn't changed the relationship with the UK - the UK has. Did they think or care about Ireland when they decided to brexit in the way they did? Answer: obviously not - they thought they could force Ireland out of the single market and back under the control of corrupt British elites.

And those loyalist gangs are going to be much happier with no checks to the GB mainland, high food standards in Ireland/the EU and customs differences to arbitrage.

Now imagine if instead of that border being in a few ports it was spread out along a couple of hundred miles with over 300 crossing points.

So I fully agree with your point that Ireland needs to force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI protocol to ensure that doesn't happen.

What will ultimately kill the EU will be IF and it’s very possible...that that the EU continue to disregard the safety and wellbeing of the citizens of its member states...

122 Islamic terror attacks have occurred in the EU since 2015. 382 people were murdered in these attacks and thousands more injured. EU states are having to spend millions more on security, counter terrorism, intelligence etc... yet practically zero tangible control on their borders...

The UK won’t rejoin, I can see other countries in years looking at joining them.

You can say the NIP is a "load of nonsense" - but it (i.e. an Irish Sea border) is the ONLY solution to a non-SM brexit where NI remains in UK, there is no return to a border in Ireland & Ireland remains free. It's all well and good to say you don't think it's a perfect solution - but then you explain (and defend) your choice.

Ireland's demands of the UK were very simple and limited - and the UK immediately promised them - "no hard border" . The NIP was the only solution the UK could come up with and accept- what else would you want ireland to do? Invade the UK? Occupy Northern Ireland?

Johnson put himself in his position by advocating brexit, forcing through the hardest of hard brexits AND wanting a withdrawal agreement. He didn't have to sign the withdrawal agreement - he and his 80 seat majority could have left with no deal - "no deal is better than a bad deal" - remember that?

"No hard border" was the price Ireland wanted in return for the UK having a withdrawal agreement - they got the withdrawal agreement they wanted, now they must pay the relevant price.

So what it your solution: you honestly believe that Ireland should accept a hard border? Obviously those 300+ crossing points would need to be reduced (again) to something manageable - which routes would you block? The same as last time?

A border through Ireland will obviously be militarised - how many minutes would pass by at the 300 crossings dividing villages from their hinterlands before the first British customs official forcing checks on locals who don't accept brexit or believe they should be part of the UK gets shot? Do you think it would be more or less than 5 minutes? Why?

How much smuggling would there be through this border? How quickly would GMO foods& British BSE beef take before being found in every town in Ireland? What would the criminal gangs do with all the money they made from that? Start a charity?

If any Irish politician signed a treaty accepting that, how long do you think that politician would stay alive? Longer or shorter than Michael Collins? How long would their political party stay in existence? Do you think it would be gone and lost forever within a week or a month?

I'm very interested in your response.

The UK and Ireland now being in different customs and standards regimes necessitates the need for an border as long as NI remains part of the UK.

This is just a reality. The border need not be troops and fences and with a combination of modern tech and monitoring and random checking it could be relatively un-invasive and people under the CTA can travel freely anyway so no issues there. If people choose to start shooting that ultimately is their call, it doesn't change the reality of needing a border between two countries.

You are painting the emotive picture of British Troops and militarisation............not required if the two governments got together and worked it out amicably.

I fully understand why it's an emotive issue, why it was weaponised and why people view it as non-negotiable but it doesn't mean it's not required.

We can talk this round in circles all you want and couch it all in emotive language but reality is reality and as long as people avoid it the mess will continue.

The NIP is a load of nonsense and always was, a political fudge and 10 months into this mess it still is.

Do I like the mess no, is it what anyone wanted in Ireland ? Don't think so but it's an unfortunate side effect of Brexit but that has happened now.

Ultimately it's all language. What is a hard border ?

If we had trusted trader schemes, technology and random stops and checks on goods moving across the border with free movement of people is that a hard border ?

It almost became Option A) No Border. B) Wire, Closed crossings and British Army. Why ?

There is a middle ground.

No there is no middle ground - look at what checks need to be done in France. Those checks need people to undertake them - and without an army, those people are soft targets. If there is a single person sympathetic to IRA ideology anywhere in Ireland with a weapon, the first death of a customs official sparks off an immediate and irreversible (in the circumstances) militarisation. (Which is what happened the last time).

Imposing a border in northern Ireland cutting off villages from their hinterlands which are fully open (in breach of the GFA strand 2 obligations let's not forget) will not be accepted by the locals (and why should it).

If you think "trusted trader", facial recognition for sheep, blockchain and all that nonsense works- then it obviously works far, far more easily between NI & GB than between NI & Irl. And don't forget those checks become ever more onerous & important as the UK diverges more and more from the EU.

Furthermore, no it is not a "reality", the UK signed up to the NIP - and the UK government won an election on the back of the "oven ready deal" which"got brexit done".

It is accepted by & benefitted from by the people of Northern Ireland (who let's not forget voted to remain in the EU & single market), it was approved by the Northern Ireland Assembly - who are you to tell them they need to bow to the Brexiters' plan to renege on the UK's solemn undertakings?

It is working perfectly well insofar as it is being operated. NI shelves & petrol stations are full, and NI is attracting investment and exports to the EU are significantly up. It is only through attempted sabotage by UK government, the UK's intentional delay of checks into GB to delay the grim reality of brexit on GB by comparison and the UK government's hurried attempts to get their false narrative out before reality intrudes too much ( which would have been around Christmas if they haven't entered a trade war by then), that makes it seem in any way otherwise as the moment (and even now it's fairly obvious that the UK narrative that it's "not working" is being shown up more & more by food & fuel shortages, wastages of vegetables, animals & milk, inflation, waste not being collected and various other shortages at a snowballing rate).

And again, how long do you think the Irish politician who agrees to that is likely to stay alive? Or that their party stays in existence?

Agree in a way and yes it will be groundhog day for sometime to come folks....

Suspect yes in time as tensions lower on all sides (it is all very emotive still) closer cooperation and alignment will result to a point and that is probably the best solution all round.

The NIP is mostly functional - let's not forget the "80% of checks are being carried out by UK customs officials" line and just last week, after months & months of delay, the UK finally started sharing their data with the EU for example.

Meanwhile, checks for moving goods into the UK are estimated to first be in place in 2025.

Why did the UK absolutely insist on implementing the NIP without warning or business preparation - while waiting years to do the same for GB?

A16 does not implement a trade war. Invoking A16 in good faith certainly doesn't - and even invoking A16 but only using it within its remit does not

Reneging on the protocol, however, does initiate a trade war - and it will not be the EU that takes that step.

An Irish sea border (which we have) is the only solution (aside from revoking hard brexit and not uniting Ireland). It is agreed, it is accepted and it must be enforced. Why should it not? You yourself said that trusted trader stuff etc. is easy - why can't all of that be used on the Irish sea border? There has been an SPS border between NI & GB for a long time, soil cannot be imported since 1972 I believe, and aside from entirely different laws, there have even been different customs.

As for a "non enforced border" - that goes back to Ireland being literally forced to swallow British BSE infected beef that they cannot sell anywhere else in the world and so smuggle into Ireland. Again slightly earlier you were explaining how easy it would be to have "alternative arrangements" at the British border in Ireland - why would it be so difficult to enforce the same in the sea?