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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 76,135 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Vaccinations significantly reduce the spread. The extreme position you outline is, in my view, very unlikely. Getting those younger cohorts vaccinated was absolutely necessary as that has limited the amount of this virus in circulation materially. And it's not as if those younger cohorts were immune from the worst consequences if this virus. It has killed people from all age groups and there are plenty of people suffering from long covid in the younger ages.

    Level 5 lockdown is, in my view, very unlikely. But we are all expressing our views and none of us know. Suggesting certain things are inevitable with this particular virus ignores all the unpredictable ways it has developed over the past 20 months or so



  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Why can't you get it into your head that the vaccines reduce case loads on a population level? They don't totally eliminate it but it reduces it a lot. We opened pubs for just a few short weeks in December with a less transmissible virus and got much higher case and hospital numbers.

    We've had more open for longer the last few months and cases have been in the 1000-2000 range with a much more contagious variant. It's very simple stuff

    You are less likely to catch the virus if you are vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,987 ✭✭✭normanoffside


    Serious question, if vaccination significantly reduce the spread then how do the two most vaccinated counties Waterford and Carlow) also have among the highest infection rates?

    I know that the trials showed the vaccines reduced the spread but these trials were sped through so they only had data for several months and after 4-5-6 months it seems the ability of vaccines to reduce transmission severely reduces. Data from The early vaccinated countries and/or statelets (Israel, Gibraltar, Malta etc) shows this as they all had huge spikes 4-6 months after vaccinating the population. Perhaps the one of the early vaccinated states which has had the lowest spike is San Marino, who interestingly used Sputnik



  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    sad part to my earlier comment the young educated wont care or vote they will go where normality applies it doesnt here especailly after 90% fully vaxed and lied too



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,599 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Not trying to be a sh1t stirrer but up to recently enough I used to be reasonably on top of covid news/developments and I didnt see 'vaccinations significantly reduce spread'. What I saw is that the jury is very much still out on that and several papers and statements from health officials worldwide state that vaccinated people carry the same or near the same viral load as unvaccinated people. Other statements make some mental gymnastics around vaccinated people being infectious for a day or two less than unvaccinated people and what have you.

    Covid number reductions in general can easily be explained seasonally and by the way of fact that vaccinated people do not have the same testing requirements as unvaccinated and that testing requirements in general have been relaxed siginifcantly. So far all I'm seeing is that vaccinations sginifacntly reduce severe symptoms. Which is great but its not the same thing obviously.

    I am vaccinated since May just to make clear I'm not an 'anti-vaxxer' but since you have actually thread banned people for saying what I'm saying/asking above could you please link some info to 'vaccinations significantly reduce the spread'?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I agree with your post but small point, no trials assessed spread afaik. Population data gathered since can infer spread/lack of spread but it's not controlled or longitudinal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Maybe people didn't see what De Gascun said. It has been posted a couple of times already





  • Registered Users Posts: 15,950 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    As most of us know by now, the overriding FEAR is the capacity or lack thereof in hospitals and ICU. That's all they are worried about really.

    Every feckin year in Winter, and was there any forward planning, any real management of budgets, any reorganisation of opening hours for diagnostics, any sorting of the A+E trolley train? I suppose the HSE will be looking for more moolah, again. What they do with the existing budget is beyond me, black holes come to mind.

    Lockdown will happen if hospital capacity is insufficient. Vaccines are not the key at all, heck 92% are vaccinated anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 158 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    He's saying a vaxxed individual who has covid carries the same viral load and CAN transmit to others included fully vaxxed. But as a vaxxed person your chances of catching it in the first place are lower. And at a population level this somewhat suppresses transmission and cases.

    This is not binary, it does not eliminate it, or is 100% or complete. Like masks etc. But it does reduce it. If it didn't we'd be dealing with much much higher case numbers. A much higher proportion of cases every day are in the unvaxxed than the vaxxed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I saw in June that the Mater were expanding ICU capacity, and speeding it up using emergency legislation. Does anyone know the status of this?

    Here's the article: Mater hospital says it engaged with residents before starting to build 100-bed wing (irishtimes.com)

    The hospital says it used the emergency pandemic legislation to ensure the new facility could be delivered “as quickly as possible”.

    Using rapid-build techniques at least 100 new single beds for patients requiring isolation will be ready “within a matter of months”, a spokeswoman said.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,615 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    We're lucky that once the safety and efficacy was established that this could be further researched using real world data that showed considerable drops in R rate among the vaccinated, enough to keep the current R rate at ~1 while R0 for delta is believed to be 8+.

    But again, you're arguing against all the science and studies that have gone into this and keep digging into a narrow set of data to try and support an absurdly narrow viewpoint that is not supported by the data (except in anti-vaxxer world).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    We're lucky that once the safety and efficacy was established that this could be further researched using real world data that showed considerable drops in R rate among the vaccinated, enough to keep the current R rate at ~1 while R0 for delta is believed to be 8+.

    No. This isn't longitudinal data. The R0 dropped, yes, but it also dropped in mid 2020 before vaccination started, and it will drop for every respiratory virus in every year in future according to seasonality.

    But again, you're arguing against all the science and studies that have gone into this and keep digging into a narrow set of data to try and support an absurdly narrow viewpoint that is not supported by the data (except in anti-vaxxer world).

    The issues that are arising now are those that I've been pointing out for months are at risk of happening, to YOU in particular. I'm only reading data from the manufacturers, I don't know what anti vaxxer world you're talking about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭Parachutes


    The vaccines are nowhere near as good as we are all lead to believe. The Government want vaccination to be the silver bullet because they have no other plan. It’s vaccination or the country’s fucked. That’s why they push the vaccine certs so hard because they are still desperately clinging to the idea the vaccines are going to end the pandemic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Locking down because healthy people are unknowingly carrying a virus..

    Pure twilight zone stuff



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    I agree they have no plan B. They've put all their eggs in the vaccine basket and done nothing about the hospital capacity scandal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭Parachutes


    I think there will be massive resistance to another lockdown, be a brave government to try that considering most people are under the impression that the vaccines were a sure thing to end it and are under the impression things are getting better.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,295 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Yep a massive percentage bought into the vaccine as we were told it would bring an end to restrictions

    It's seems to have worked for other countries. Another lockdown would do so much damage to people's mental health.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    We've had a near half century of doing nothing about our hospitals. What's new!



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,569 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    I don't get all the lockdown talk in here. It's the only place it's being talked about.

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Government pauses the delay in fully opening and therefore we're getting a Level 5 lockdown apparently.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,050 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Incorrect, last year wet pubs opened on September 21st as part of lv2+ on the living with COVID plan

    On the 6th of October the country moved to lv3 and pubs were once again closed except for 15 people outdoors, you couldn't travel outside your county

    There was also the constant threat of lv5 restrictions which eventually came on the 19th of October... But you are saying you felt more free then because you didn't have to show a qr code on your phone to drink inside a pub?



  • Registered Users Posts: 933 ✭✭✭darconio


    Unfortunately we still believe that they want us all vaccinated for our own safety. However they are slowly showing their true color and their end game : implement and normalize the green cert. With 90+% vaccinated it wouldn't make sense to enforce it to the same, and if the vaccine is so good as they say, why they have already enough stock to implement a 3rd/4th booster? Of course CT forum that way, isn't it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,050 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Almost 50 more people in hospital today with the virus, crazy even for a Sunday... I'd hope to see a massive drop tomorrow due to the weekend effect



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    ICU. 70% of admissions in the past two weeks were unvaccinated - someone will say it’s April to October data, but if you take the April to October data and compare to two weeks ago it’s 74%. I rounded down. Now given there is no reason to believe vulnerable people are the vaccine hold outs, why do 10% of the population account for 70% of admissions? Because the underlying rate of virus is far higher in unvaccinated. If vaccinated people were ending up in icu at the same rate as unvaccinated there would be close to 500 in icu. And based on rates of cases when there was no vaccine you would need at the very least 6,000 cases daily for those numbers ( assuming January peak was high due to testing delays. Could be well over 10,000).

    That there is the irrefutable evidence that vaccines are reducing spread massively.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    But you are saying you felt more free then because you didn't have to show a qr code on your phone to drink inside a pub?

    Yes of course...



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It’s definitely clear that those who did see it misunderstood it ( or in some cases misrepresented it)

    States unequivocally that it reduces spread. It also states that viral loads in those who develop in infection are not lower. So a reduced number of people infected means reduced spread.

    Those who don’t avoid infection may have similar viral loads, but they do so for a shorter period of time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    That there is the irrefutable evidence that vaccines are reducing spread massively.

    That isn't evidence that vaccines reduce spread. It may be evidence that vaccination reduces admission to ICU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,050 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Good news then... There's nothing stopping you from not leaving the boundary of your home county and you can stay at home all day every day and only go to a pub for outdoor drinking and nobody will stop you 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    What do you envisage for January, Case-Wise, Hospitalisation wise?

    Remember, everyone thinks they're invincible after the vaccine. Everyone will be visiting each others houses over Christmas, where they may have not last year. The HSE will undoubtedly be calling for it. If they are calling for it, NPHET will be. If NPHET and HSE are calling for it, you betcha the Media and Opposition parties will be. So it will be then up to Micheal Martin, the weakest man who has ever lead a sovereign state, to say No. Not a chance.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You may have noticed something that happened from March to June 30 that caused r number to drop?

    And as soon as the restrictions were eased in June it grew at a constant rate until October when lockdown happened again. Then it started to grow again in December when easing of restrictions combined with alpha variant caused r number to accelerate rapidly until lockdown again. Then from March in parallel there have been gradual easing of restrictions combined with rollout of the vaccination programme which meant the the r number has never returned to levels after the end of lockdown 1, even with the delta variant being 2-3 times more transmissible and there being fewer restrictions now than at any point since March 2020. What could have changed, I wonder.



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