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Fine Gael Demographic

  • 19-10-2021 9:51am
    #1
    Posts: 61 ✭✭


    Last time out I voted for Fine Gael however since then I have been having a think about things.

    I am in my 30s, university educated and have a professional qualification. I work full time. My girlfriend is the same so on paper all good.

    We live in Dublin and are looking to get married and have a couple of kids.

    With the current cost of rent and the future costs of purchasing a house and childcare in Dublin we really can't see how to make it work.

    This situation has developed under the Fine Gael government with some of the blame landing on Fianna Fail.

    Fine Gael have been voted into government on a fairly consistent basis since 2000 and their target market is basically me. I no longer can explain why I'm voting for Fine Gael.

    They are promising change again but nothing is happening. All I see are luxury apartments being built in Dublin.

    We can see from the last election that it was basically the 65+ age group hat voted for Fine Gael - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/exit-poll-by-numbers-who-voted-what-way-and-where-1.4166978

    Most of these people likely couldn't tell you why they voted a certain way other than habit. They always voted for FG or FF and their parents did the same, ect. "This is a FG house".

    It seems that Sinn Fein don't need to appeal to a different demographic than those who voted for them last time out, they just need to get a few more of this demographic to actually show up and vote. One clever person who runs a good marketing campaign is the only thing standing between us and a Sinn Fein led government.

    Post edited by Quin_Dub on


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,906 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    "Consistent basis since 2000"? Fine Gael didn't spend a single day in government between June 27th, 1997 and March 8th, 2011. Fianna Fail had the massive benefits of the Celtic Tiger and single-handedly created a hugely dysfunctional housing market. Does no-one remember the Galway tents? 110% mortgages? FF were literally the party of the building developers. FG came in to government on the back of the GFC at a time of huge austerity, and were left with FF's mess.

    Should FG be doing better? Absolutely. Are they the architects of the situation? Absolutely not.

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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You're planning to vote with FG next time? It seems they haven't really made a dent in housing since they came into power upto to Covid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,763 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    I vote in my own self interest largely, so FG gets my vote at this point in my life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭KaneToad


    You nicely dodged the point that the poster made where you were wrong in claiming that FG have been in govt since 2000. 😂

    As was rightly pointed out, FG came into power when we were bankrupt. A FG supporter would argue that they got us back to being an economic power rather than basket case. A non FG supporter would argue that it would have happened regardless...



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Nothing to dodge, I was wrong. Moving on. They have been in power for 10 years, lets discuss.

    I understand the 65+ voting in their own self interest. Voting for either FF or FG next time will result in an extension of the current so there will be a movement to get people to switch all the way to SF rather than switched between FF and FG.

    I'm worried what they would do if they got into power but personally am out of time with promises that are not materialising.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,511 ✭✭✭KaneToad


    Ok...

    I don't vote FG. But I can see some positives from their tenure. Particularly through the work of the Dept Finance and Pascal Donohue. We can't easily forget how utterly devastated the economy was when FG took office.

    They are fiscally conservative which is probably what we needed at the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Yes this false claim seemed to me to be straight out of the SF playbook. Am I the only one here who suspects that he's also fibbing about voting FG the last time out?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,316 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Well if housing is the be all and end all for you that simplifies things doesn't it? Just look at the parties' housing policies ahead of the next election and vote for them in order of how well you like those policies.

    If you think massive state intervention is the way to solve the housing situation, well you were never going to get that from FG. I don't follow the issue very closely but Eoin O'Broin seems to be the man if you favour that approach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,763 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    FG are fiscally conservative by Irish standards, but our welfare state is leaps and bounds better than even Labour would introduce in the UK. We need some sensible budgets for a few more years to continue the recovery from the FF induced disaster. I feel I pay plenty in tax, PRSI etc. , 50% or more at the marginal rate which kicks in fairly low in this country. I am happy paying that, but any more burden on those paying tax at that rate is not sustainable or fair imho.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    100% was required, even mandated. Now we are in a different situation where they can borrow at close to 0%. The government is the largest landowner in the state. There is no excuse for the slow response to the housing crisis.



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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SF might have policies that they won't deliver on. I know now for certain that FG won't deliver on their housing policies. I would prefer to vote for a fiscally conservative party but with the inaction am being forced into voting for SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,763 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Everyone wants a house, we have the lowest % of apartment dwellers in Europe, we needed to build more apartments and people need to adjust life expectations to fit their means, even if it means never owning a house.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I would take an apartment if there was ones suitable for a family at a reasonable price. The lack of accommodation drives up rent and makes it more difficult for someone to get the deposit for any type of property.

    There is an entire generation of young people who have trades and qualifications and work longer and are more productive that the previous generation and can't get anywhere near the same standard of living. Things have taken a wrong turn.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    No one is 'forced' into voting SF, any other party, or even voting. Your use of ridiculous hyperbole doesn't serve whatever argument you're trying to make.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,763 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    The deposit requirements are due to the dire state of the banks, my mortgage is at well over 4% due to the same when the ECB base rate is less than zero. We are all at the mercy of shite state of our banks Balance Sheets for the foreseeable future. What can SF do? Corp tax is a sacred cow and needs to remain so, the middle class already bear too much tax, there is no room for a massive social housing drive, nor is that the solution.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    There could be a new organisation set up that could borrow at close to 0% and issue mortgages at half of what you pay. The banks have been capitalized enough and the percentage of mortgages that are trackers are quite low and those remaining are close to the end.

    Builders could be offered a fixed price to build a specified house on state owned land with payments made at specified points so that a firm couldn't come looking for more. The state could retain ownership of the land, the buyer has a lower mortgage at a more competitive rate and the building firms have a longer term stable contract.

    It is some idea at least, which is far better than just coming up with another scheme that gives first time buyers help to buy which just allows the bidding to be driven higher for starter homes and lumping others with higher mortgages which might place them under very tough financial pressure for many years.

    The lack of action is extremely frustrating while we are being bled in Dublin by ridiculous rents. There are also very few houses in Dublin that meet the criteria of help to buy and are affordable for a young couple looking to buy their first house which is often around the same time as the first kid comes along.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,763 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Even with all the above, anything more than a 90-95% mortgage is risky, so you will still need to find your deposit even if the government were to provide the land, and Gov owned land is not within easy distance of Dublin, so aye you get a 2% mortgage, a house in a less desirable location, but your will still need to save a hefty deposit.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    These houses/apartments should cost less than current prices so 10% deposit would be less and it would lower demand on the current housing stock so rents would decrease and make it easier to save this deposit. There has to be a movement to unblock the system and it has been years that FG haven't taken any decisive action to make a meaningful start on this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    When you post 'there could be a new organisation' borrowing at around 0% you can only be referring to the Irish state setting up some kind of mortgage lender and undercutting present bank rates. Firstly this would push up demand and increase home prices even more and probably lead to more defaulting down the line.

    Have you any other simplistic solutions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,439 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    The results of a study recently published by the University of Helsinki suggest that the growing trend of “micro-apartments” (studio apartments that are smaller than average) in Finland’s cities is cause for concern. 

    summary of the research, which was published by the Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (URBARIA), revealed that upto 80 per cent of new studio apartments are extremely small and tubular, with a fifth of micro-apartments for sale measuring 30–37 square meters.  


    Dog box apartments are why homelessness has been solved in Finland.


    Imagine the left if we started building these in Dublin?


    They are no solutions only trade offs to our problems as the great Thomas Sowell says.



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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How about this organisation would only give mortgages to new builds or to first time buyers.

    The houses build on the land would have to be peoples PPR.

    Take investors out of the equation completely. Drive down yields and you will see them leave the current housing stock and help with prices for people looking to buy a home there also.

    Why are you looking to poke holes in someone looking for ideas on how to solve a major housing crisis?

    FG are creating an environment for funds to profit on buy/build to let and pricing people out of the market. This approach is a disaster for people in their late 20s & 30s in Dublin.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    So in essence you want the state to set up a bank, run the risk to offer lower interest rate loans and you think this would somehow make the situation better instead of people simply bidding higher instead? This is before we talk about the issues of state competition with the banks etc. and EU regulation. Sorry; that's a no go.

    Secondly; state building standardized houses; once again what stops a builder from doing that today? Where exactly do you see this magical land for them to build on? And who's to retain the houses? Are you selling them on government land then the government take the risk to sell them on for what price exactly? Do you expect the state to subsidize the houses and land as well or sell for actual value? Because that's the situation today.

    What's funny about housing is that everyone wants a cheap easy solution to a very complex problem. When prices are rising people complain about the prices; if the houses fall below the value of the loans people moan about the fact they can't hand in the keys to the banks to let them take the loss to let them move on. What's needed is more apartments; less houses and people understand that no you don't need a 200sqm house to raise a family.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Many people would love to be able to buy a 90sqm apartment for their family with a mortgage that would be about 75% of their current rent including all the related expenses.

    If they were built there would be no shortage of people looking to buy.

    If repossessions were more straightforward in Ireland, like pretty much every other country in the world the risk is very low if the interest rates were around 1.5% which is a common rate in France for example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭quokula


    Maybe not but they've solved a hell of a lot of the other problems that the country was facing when they first came to power, to the point where people like yourself and your partner are able to have good jobs and a high standard of living as you said in the first post. Without the work of recent governments that may very well not have been the case, you could have found that the reason you couldn't afford a house was that you were unemployed and there were no jobs, rather than the current issue which is that there are lots of other well educated people with good salaries willing to get into bidding wars and push the going rates up.

    The housing situation in Ireland is no worse than it is in every developed nation at the moment. It's not something that has a simple easy fix when you've got the competing interest of existing home owners not wanting to be pushed into negative equity, nimbyism pushing back against developments all the time, people wanting to live in low density housing yet also wanting to be close to city centers which is physically impossible, and of course covid kicked in and put a stop to building for a prolonged period too.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "people like yourself and your partner are able to have good jobs and a high standard of living as you said in the first post"

    We have worked hard to get to where we are and the salaries are ok but the standard of living in not high because the cost of living in Dublin is excessive due to poor political decisions. We need to be here for our jobs and don't really fancy spending 2 hours on a train and a Bus each winter morning to get into the office by 8:30am and it is not a goer at all when a kid comes along.

    Our life is better than a lot of people but not great. Some familys who have 3 kids and are on the dole and have a social house are not much worse off and their alarm doesn't go off at 6:30am. HAP payments can be about €1,300 a month I believe so €15,600 a year towards housing and no childcare costs required.

    "competing interest of existing home owners not wanting to be pushed into negative equity, nimbyism pushing back against developments all the time"

    so people voting for FG who going by the last poll are those 65+ and/or wealthy. If they and FG are not currently aligned with the interests of people in their 20s and 30s then we will see a Sinn Fein government and increased taxes and probably less thought put into spending.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭quokula


    Only in Ireland do people advocate for "the left" because they think people in poverty get too many benefits, it's the sort of doublespeak you expect from Sinn Fein of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,836 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The circle that FG (and FF) are unable to square is that they want to solve the housing crisis just so long as the price of houses doesn't actually fall. That's why they keep pushing demand-side solutions to a supply side problem. The dirty little secret, that most politicians know, is that there are a whole cohort of homeowner voters out there who don't care about the housing crisis - but they absolutely do care about the equity in their homes (and opposing any housing developments anywhere near them). FG know this and see this group as the foundation of their voter base. They just can't say the quiet part out loud.

    In my opinion if you do not own your own home then you're a fool to vote for FG. The only reason to vote for them is if you primarily vote with your own interest at heart and you own your own home.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭quokula


    "Our life is better than a lot of people but not great. Some familys who have 3 kids and are on the dole and have a social house are not much worse off and their alarm doesn't go off at 6:30am. HAP payments can be about €1,300 a month I believe so €15,600 a year towards housing and no childcare costs required."

    That's not complaining about too many benefits?



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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The alternative is not really FF though. That leaves SF. That is what I mean when I say I am being forced into voting for SF as FG are not aligning with my interests and I'm a professional with a good job and should be their base but they have dropped the ball. I was very surprised at the support SF got the last time but now I understand it. I imagine quite a lot of votes they got was a vote against FG rather than a vote for SF.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You're bringing nothing to the table and looking for a dispute.

    I'm not saying they are getting too much, I'm saying two young professionals who work full time and put a lot of time and effort to get to that point don't have much more than someone who had 3 kids and applied for the council house and the dole and didn't make any effort to gain employable skills therefore something has gone wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭quokula


    Even if you do believe FG and FF are identical, which they aren't, that doesn't just leave SF. There are parties like Labour, the Social Democrats and the Greens who all have serious policy platforms, who's main sin is that they've actually been in government at one time or another and had to contend with reality rather than fantasy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭LeeroyJ.


    They have been junior coalition partners, which really limits how much they can deliver on. The difference with Sinn Féin is that they actually have a realistic chance to lead a left wing government and deliver on some of their core policies. Voting Sinn Féin is someone's best chance at achieving a government not led by FF or FG. Everyone is free to vote for whatever interest they so chose, but I will be voting Sinn Féin not because it's in my own interest (it's probably not) but because I personally think it's in the best interest of our society.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You don't vote for those at present in Ireland if you want change next time out. Sinn Fein will gain a lot of votes next time and likely more than they did last time so FF and FG will have to band together again so in effect for the next few years they are one and the same and they are not looking like the best option for a very large percentage of the working population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,718 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I was a Labour voter in my youth, mainly cos my family were always champagne socialists, trade union high-ups, upper mid public servants and so on and I adored Ruairí Quinn too.

    But now I'm in my 40s I'm firmly a Coveney camp Fine Gaeler. I'm a self employed professional, have some property and other assets, kids midway thru education and so on.

    I vote for Fine Gael because they are pro-enterprise, pro economic expansion to lift all boats, pro the rewarding of effort, pro the addition of wealth to raise living standards and so on.

    They will protect my created gains more than any other party by current policy and I concur with their general social policy also, liberal personal freedom that does not detract from others.

    I would normally still throw Labour a preference,but not while Kelly is leader, he is moron.

    And I will work with anyone to use my efforts and influence to keep the malignant Sinn Féin ever from entering Govt in the 26 counties.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,865 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Trouble is it is very unlikely that there will be a government that does not involve at least one of FF/FG/SF, so one way or another lower preferences will land on one of them.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I understand where you are coming from. In the future I will likely vote the same way. They have protected the assets and wealth of their voter base to the point that they have excluded too great a percentage of the population and now they opened the door to SF who will spend recklessly and raise taxes. Sinn Fein have a good idea now what their support is and how many candidates to run to maximise their seats and FG haven't done enough to reverse it in my opinion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,906 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    They'll certainly get a higher preference than "the root cause" FF or "magic money trees" SF.

    And the "ten years to fix it" claim is disingenous at best. We didn't exit the bailout until December 2013. In 2015, unemployment levels were still above 10%. There was very little scope for any improvements in the housing situation for much of the first half of FG's decade in power.

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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I didn't really see much of a plan being implemented by them at any point. I see many plans and promises but nothing tangible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,836 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yeah personally I am no more happy with SF than I am with FG. Their stated positions of removing the property tax, removing carbon tax and opposing water charges reeks of populism. Also their internal politics are opaque to a troubling degree, they have a massive bullying problem and their leadership elections have all the authenticity of a Russian federal election. FF are an afterthought. They only ever stood for power and now I don't even know or care what they are. They will always be the party that recklessly destroyed the economy.

    My vote would go to one of the smaller parties. My only hope is that they form a government with SF that actually builds public housing again (because FF/FG most certainly won't) and the smaller parties can get some of the more populist SF proposals removed as part of the coalition negotiations.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    There are already supports for first time buyers so I don't see how cutting out the banks is a solution to anything other than maybe this organisation would start giving 100% loans to people who probably couldn't afford the repayments. If you think that would end well then you're delusional.

    As others have pointed out we need to build communities, apartments to a variety of sizes properly managed and improve our public transport services. All these will take longer than the duration of a single Dáil and maybe even two. One of the main obstacles will as always be Irish NIMBYism.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What supports? Help to buy? That is not working well in Dublin because of the qualifying criteria. It would be very useful in the midlands but there are not many jobs around there. It is not really a great scheme. Remove the qualifying criteria and the limited supply of properties in Dublin will just get more expensive so a whole new scheme is needed.

    Never said 100% loans. Never said to give mortgages to people who couldn't afford that amount.

    Never said there didn't need to be other criteria on what properties are to be bought. It could be used to direct people towards the properties that are better for the country. Many ways to play that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,718 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    No you're right, they haven't done enough. And waiting for the run up to a 2025 election is a mistake, because we've had a few close calls already and an election could be triggered really any month between now and then.

    Its time for FG to be FG, to tackle SF on those major SF sticking points:

    • Funding the exchequer and running a responsible budgetary position
    • Maintaining social cohesion (money grabs, adverse business environment, FDI etc)
    • Tackling the Unions and Professions to deliver on policies, have they got the stomach? How far will they push?
    • Murky and malign party influences, democratic deficit at local level
    • Addressing the ambiguity around socialism/marxism, the constitutional question, Euroscepticism etc


  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    All Sinn Fein have to do is not really engage. That is a not how they will win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Right, so we need a new scheme that will make it easier for first time buyers but won't push up prices, like set up some new state run/financed 'organisation'? Good luck with that.

    What we need in Dublin is more homes in sustainable communities well planned and managed. Supply needs to increase but until that happens little will change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,588 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    It might just be me but I find it very hard to take this post at face value. It reads like a pamphlet YFG would hand out on a college campus.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You must be some craic to be around. Sarcasm and criticism but not contributing anything. How long does it take for people to stop returning your calls?:)



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,588 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    I'm no FF voter, but I think putting the blame for recklessly destroying the economy is giving them too much credit. Much like FG they don't actually impose any power or strategy on the economy, the policy of both is just leave it up to the market and take the credit if things go well and hide if they don't.

    I'm not saying a very interfering government would work in Ireland, as a small island we may just always ultimately be blown by winds outside of our control. But if you ever got that familiar feeling watching the news - 'how did this idiot ever get elected?!' - you are more than likely correct in your initial assessment. A bunch of chancing gombeens getting away with it for as long as possible.



  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I definitely don't think FG are a bunch of chancing gombeens. Their voter base are those that have accumulated wealth and their ministers are clever people.

    They don't align with my interests right now though on housing and childcare.



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