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Joe Biden Presidency thread *Please read OP - Threadbanned Users Added 4/5/21*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad


    The let's go Brandon/ F Joe Biden song made it to number 2 on the US iTunes chart,only being topped by Adele's long awaited return single.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    How is it 'deeply' flawed? It uses a different methodology than the Nate Silver one for sure, but they are not too far apart.

    RCP Average: 43.9% Approve - 52.1% Disapprove, a -8.2 point spread

    Nate Silver: 44.8% Approve - 49.5% Disapporve, a - 4.7 point spread

    The approvals are only 0.9 apart but the disapprove is 2.6% apart. RCP average has a larger spread for sure, but they both are in negative territory for Biden.


    Which poll do you accept as the most accurate, and if that poll shows Biden doing badly will you accept it?


    Also, what makes you think that Biden's polls are holding steady and will stay steady for the next few years? Blind hope and optimism? You dont think he can recover? I think that says it all tbh.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    RCP is deeply flawed because it doesn’t rank or rate the polls it uses based on methodology. It simply averages them out.


    i trust Nate Silver’s model, which is holding steady.


    Biden isn’t polling well, I never said he was. I just object to this doom mongering going on.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    No. No single poll is “ok”. Can we not just agree the 538 model is the reference point and move on? Because it’s the most accurate

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,411 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    You don't understand.

    Some polls aren't favourable and SNL did a skit slagging him.

    It's the worst presidency EVER! He's just as bad as Trump!

    He's done so much wrong! He hasn't done enough!

    The buck stops with him! Other people are pulling the strings.

    And so forth....



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    That isn't really a flaw per se, it's just a methodology. They don't claim to be a polling company, but it does offer a trend.

    NateSilver isn't flawless either, he got many things wrong in the last election too, so not sure how we can all proclaim him as the one and only true benchmark while dismissing all others.

    Anyway, the Nate Silver benchmark has Biden trending down, not holding steady.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Just look at the Rumplestilskin impersontation he's doing in the first 10 seconds of that clip, scrunching his face, balling up his little fists and hitting the podium, he looks and sounds both ridiculous and demented. If you don't see that there a lacking 😂



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Wtf? Are you being serious? Like, are you legitimately being serious?

    I **** weep for humanity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,625 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    You guys would probably be better off starting a separate thread where you can post this kind of juvenile drivel to your heart's content.

    Post edited by extra gravy on


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Jesus man. It’s a flawed methodology, why is that so hard to admit? Nate Silver’s model isn’t flawless, no one claimed it was. It is, without doubt the most accurate model we have


    I check 538 this morning and he’s holding steady. Before we indulge in extreme pedantry, I define “holding steady” as +/- 1% in a 14 day period. I think that’s reasonable



    So I don’t actually consider the tiny upward trend this week an upward trend worth noting. But there’s no way it’s trending down as you claim.


    the melodrama is completely pointless. He’s not doing great. He’s not doing awful.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Caquas



    You have provided zero evidence of that. Zero. All you proved is that Biden is not the perfect president by listing some things you believe he has done wrong.

    • Zero evidence? How about the main issue I have mentioned constantly - Biden is so weak that the "progressives' have him pursuing a spending spree which he did not mention in his campaign and which runs counter to his entire political record.
    • This may shock you to your very core, but every single US president has made mistakes. Listing some mistakes of a particular president does not indicate the strength of that president. You need to compare and contrast that list to previous presidents. And, not only have not done that for several presidents, you seemingly cannot do that for any previous president, and yet you've somehow managed to come to the conclusion that's he the weakest president in modern history. Impressive.
    • You're back to your "write a comparative history of US Presidents" malarkey. Here's how a chat board works. I make a claim and give my reasons. If you think there was a weaker President, you give your reasons. Funny thing, you and all the other Biden fans fell into a ridiculous trap. You all nominated Trump as the weakest President. So, tell me - when did Trump cease to be the greatest threat to modern civilisation? Or were you relaxed for the previous four years, secure in the knowledge that he was too weak to do anything serious?

    Did you not read the Economist article I posted?

    Yes. Did you read the facts the I responded with? Not the opinions, but the facts?

    Would you like to explain how Biden's rating is "lower than any other previous President" as you state? It's significantly higher than the last president, it's significantly higher than e.g. Ford's rating and, as I said, every president of the last 50 years has had a similar rating during their first term.


    • I grant you Gerald Ford but I didn't count him because he didn't need to be popular, he was never elected.

    Give some examples then. Seems like you're struggling for reasons to dislike Biden.

    • Who said I disliked Biden? He is weak but I think he could be personally agreeable, in a sort of grandfatherly way. He should ditch the aviator glasses at his age.

    No, I don’t. And I gave many examples.

    No, you didn't. You gave several examples, and as I said above, you can pick out examples from any previous president and declare them as being weak domestically. Compare and contrast, otherwise you are being disingenuous.

    • You have lost me. Are you arguing that "several examples" does not equal "many examples"? Or is this another case of "I will not deign to consider your opinion unless you write the definitive history of the United States"?

    We agree! The Democrats are split. Hence Biden is weakened.

    I see you have no concept of what a weak president is. First you stated a strong president is someone who use his party for personal power, and now a weak president is someone who leads a party of independent, critical thinkers rather than sheep. Have you ever considered moving to Russia at all? Seems like you might like that regime.

    • The main reason we are arguing at cross-purposes is that you confuse "weak" with "bad". As I said before, it is too early to judge if Biden will be a bad President i.e. if he will do more harm than good to the United States. Part of the current malaise in the US is the accumulation of power in the hands of its Chief Executive. That would require a history lesson but Obama's Executive Orders certainly ramped up that centralisation of power which the Founding Fathers wished to prevent. Biden's problem is that he can't exercise the enormous power of his office because his party is ideologically split and he is only their leader by default i.e. no one else could stop Bernie.

    Not unusual to be both, possibly even necessary

    No, it really isn't. Being a narcissist is one of the more obvious signs of weakness.

    • Powerful leaders were usually egotistical. Julius Caesar, Napoleon, Hitler, Churchill, Stalin, Mao. I don't equate these men morally but each unquestionably powerful. Biden is their mirror opposite. Only spiritual figures seem capable of being great leaders without egos.

    But he was definitely stronger than Biden.

    No, he really wasn't. And his constant crying after he lost his election just shows him as the weak little bitch that he is.

    • His behaviour since he lost is horrible but not weak - he is fighting back and if he got a rematch in 2024 (spare us!), he might even change the result.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There's no point in replying to that based on your last sentence alone. Only the strongest can admit defeat. By suggesting that he is strong because he is "fighting back" by continuously making false accusations demonstrates that you are being disingenuous in your ramblings.



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    I actually don't think people care about the job Biden is/isn't doing. They just thought the Trump Presidency was so entertaining and they just want to 'stick it to the libs' and now they're looking for any excuse to do the same here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    In your opinion, it may be flawed, but it is what it is, taking the average of all the national polls and generally accurate.

    I love that you pluck a random figure out of the air to justify your 'holding steady' line.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    RCP is not “generally accurate”, it’s inaccurate because the data it uses isn’t all the same quality. It’s ridiculous that you are arguing this, without actually saying why you think it’s true. You know how I know it’s inaccurate? Because it varies from the Nate Silver model, which is the most statistically accurate model for the last number of election cycles


    The only reason to quote the RCP model, is to make Biden’s approval rating look worse than it really is.


    I didn’t pull a random figure out of the air, I gave you my definition. You’re free to disagree, that’s the point of debate.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    As mentioned the Nate Silver model was wrong in the last election especially when it came to the congressional makeup of the house. It isn't infallible. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/

    They both take the same polls, RCP uses a simple average of the polls to determine the outcome. Nate Silver does that but also readjusts and adds weighting. It just goes an extra step. Sometime they are wrong as seen above where they vastly over estimated the margin of victory of Biden is some states. So who is to say that they are weighting in favour of Biden?

    To say one is deeply flawed while the other is the gold standard is ridiculous since they both use the same underlying data.

    ... and as already been mentioned, they are not that different. The Approval rating difference from RCP vs NS is 0.9%

    Hardly deeply flawed!!

    Lastly, I have posted both before you started on this rant about RCP being muck. So I have been fair and open about it and will continue to post both as IMO they are among the best.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Yet again arguing with things I never said. 538 is flawed, but it’s the least flawed model we have. Why choose to post a model you know is less accurate, unless it supports your point somehow.


    Go ahead and post it, I have no intention of trying to stop you. I’ll repeatedly point out that it’s flawed though

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Caquas


    “Disingenuous in my ramblings”.

    Ah, you’re feeling bewildered now. A rest will do you good.

    Here’s my offer - I’ll eat my words if Biden delivers on net zero by 2050 I.e. if he keeps his promise to put the US genuinely on track for that goal over the next three years. Then he will prove himself vastly stronger than his former boss who was all talk and little action on climate (as on many other issues - don’t get me started).



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Again, you're picking out one thing and suggesting that if he follows through with that he would be stronger than his predecessor.

    No one thing defines a presidency nor the strength of a president. He has already kept his promise on many things already, as I pointed out to you in my first message to you. Why are you saying that if he does X he is strong, but the fact that he has done A, B, C, etc does not make him strong?

    You are consistently making false accusations and statements without backing them up in your ramblings. You stated, for example, that Biden's approval rating is "lower than any other previous President". Then, I explained that Trump's was lower. Then, I explain that Ford's was lower. Should I add Clinton to the mix? Would you like to explain why Biden should be concerned about his approval rating, given that Clinton's approval rating was much lower even earlier into his first term?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,625 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    One for all the Trumpists here who love approval ratings so much.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,240 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Polls are a joke, you could easily tie them to one party or the other. They've been way out many times recently too.

    I think Biden has a decent approval rating personally from watching things.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Interesting you say that the Nate Silver poll is more accurate and the RCP one 'deeply' flawed

    Did you know that the Nate Silver poll was more wrong than the RCP average of polls in the 2020 presidential election?

    The end result was: 51.4 vs 46.9 a 4.5 point spread

    RCP was 51.2 vs 44.0 a 7.2 point spread

    Nate Siver was 53.4 vs 45.4 an 8 point spread


    Therefore the RCP average was the most accurate of the two...... oh dear, awkward!

    Ill mention this when I post up future RCP polls :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad


    Us republicans are suppose to be the uneducated conspiracy theorists.

    Yet.....

    It's our left leaning posters who suddenly don't believe in mathematics and polls and doubt the mainstream media.

    Oh my how the tables have turned ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,278 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    No, they've just demonstrated that they don't know the difference between correlation and causation. A long standing issue with the right



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    You really do make an art form out of picking a single data point to support your argument and ignoring a larger trend.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Point of order, I’m not left leaning. I’m a radical left wing ideologue.


    I’m also a man of science, who has spent 25 years analysing trend data to do my job. I have a complete understanding of the methodology which underpins these models, which others don’t share.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,625 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    "Us Republicans"

    Are you American and/or living in the US?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




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