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Joe Biden Presidency thread *Please read OP - Threadbanned Users Added 4/5/21*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,630 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    It was not I who said the RCP average was deeply flawed and the Nate Silver polling was the gold standard benchmark.

    When I pointed out to you that the RCP average poll of polls was more correct in 2020 than Nate Silver you brush it off. Nate Silver was also very wrong about many Congressional races in 2020.

    Inconvenient truths.


    I'll end by saying, I don't hold one of them to be massively superior to the other, hence to my mind they are both different but equally valuable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,278 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Oh dear... Biden's Approval rating keeps on falling...

    The first time the Nate Silver poll has him at greater than 50% disapproval..

    I guess this is what holding steady looks like. :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,625 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    Oh no! I'm sure he'll be crying himself to sleep tonight!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,411 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    I see people are going to keep having a go about approval ratings and not criticise any of his policies.

    Curious.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    the 538 is massively superior because the methodology is better. The underlying data is the same. It’s not even a real competition.


    You've a talent for picking single data points. Good luck with it

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    That is bad, see how easy it is when we agree on the same reference point. It’s bad and looks like getting worse, which I did not expect.


    I am quite happy to admit by guess was wrong. But it was only a guess.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 19,191 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    The only poll that matters is an election.

    Everything else is baloney.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Caquas


    You blew off my climate offer but you sucked me back in with your nonsense about Biden’s polls. I already gave you Gerald Ford. (Let this be Biden’s epitaph- “More Popular than Ford!”). Clinton had a famously rocky start to his Presidency (thanks,Hillary!) but his ratings (i.e. his Gallup approval ratings, the only consistent series we can use) were higher than Biden’s in October 48% v. 43%.

    I picked one big thing, climate, to give Joe a chance to prove himself but you lack confidence in your own man (come on, you know he can’t deliver on big things!)

    I’ll check back here in January and I think his defenders will have dwindled and the excuses will have multiplied. Maybe Joe will have come out of his bunker and done another interview by then. Maybe Pelosi’s 31 October deadline for the “Infrastructure” Bill will have vanished.

    A parting thought: the fiasco in Afghanistan was driven by Biden’s need to appear strong. He had to be “the decider” so he ignored the military who wanted to keep a residual force. He wanted to establish his place in history on the 20th. anniversary of 9/11. But just not how he imagined it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Caquas


    A highly selective poll - most countries weren’t involved. For good reasons, of course, but let’s not attribute these views to the whole world. How are Biden’s ratings holding up in Afghanistan? I’d say he got a huge boost in the Taliban demographic but from a very low base. And Afghan women? Ah, not so good.

    Note how there was an even bigger shift with Obama’s election. Seems like the rest of the western world are Democrats. But there is a secular trend that even a Democrat can’t fix - more and more people abroad, even in Western democracies where Gallup can poll, disapprove of US leadership. When that becomes a majority, the world is in big trouble.




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    So - Of the countries polled , only Russia would seem to be missing Trump (a decline of 1 to 5 points if I'm reading it right).


    Hmmmm......



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,566 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    A parting thought: the fiasco in Afghanistan was driven by Biden’s need to appear strong Military neocons in in Bush's Administration. He had to be “the decider” so he ignored the military who wanted to keep a residual force. He wanted to establish his place in history on the 20th. anniversary of 9/11. But just not how he imagined it.

    Corrected that for you. Only the incredibly blinkered would look at the end of a 20 year war and call the exit the fiasco.

    As for the rest of your post, the US government is specifically set up with 3 elements to its legislative process. The senate, the house and the President. Everyone can see what Sinema and Manchin are doing to hanstring Biden's agenda. What do you think he should do to overcome them? At least he has meaningful Bills on the table but the very real reality is that they hold way too much power in that they can literally defeat his Bills and give him a bloody nose in doing so. Trying to pass watered down bills is nowhere near enough, but it is better than nothing.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,321 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    As far as I am aware, not many of those polled there will be casting votes in the next election. Be they good or bad, foreign opinion is something of an ancillary footnote to American politicians who have more direct concerns



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The same methodology which the RCP poll of polls beat in 2020...

    Nate Silver tries to weigh each of the polls and adjusts them accordingly BUT in 2020 the weighting in the elections appeared to be overly favourable to the Democrats. Check the link I posted above, he explains this and why it may have happened. It stands to reason therefore that the same could be happening here and that the RCP average is actually MORE accurate in 2021.

    Hence why both should be used.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Yeah, I’m the one who’s incredibly blinkered, because I don’t see that the withdrawal was a success.

    I thought Team Biden would save the old “separation of powers” defence until later, when his legislative programme can’t be salvaged and his party is at each other’s throats.

    But thanks. As I say, weakest President of modern times.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,566 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    You can ignore the reality of what is going on and view it as if it is a screenplay from the West Wing. That's your choice.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You blew off my climate offer

    I did not "blow off your climate offer", I asked you to explain why you have handpicked that as something that you believe makes him strong and ignored what he has done so far as making him strong.

    Clinton had a famously rocky start to his Presidency (thanks,Hillary!) but his ratings (i.e. his Gallup approval ratings, the only consistent series we can use) were higher than Biden’s in October 48% v. 43%

    His approval rating was higher in October? What about in his first term up to October? Are you suggesting that a president would prefer to have Clinton's approval rating up to now compared to Biden's? Doesn't make any sense.

    I picked one big thing, climate, to give Joe a chance to prove himself but you lack confidence in your own man (come on, you know he can’t deliver on big things!)

    He's not my own man, he was not my preferred democratic candidate. And he already has delivered on big things.

    Maybe Joe will have come out of his bunker and done another interview by then.

    He's doing a completely average number of interviews for a president, particularly for a president that has a lot of **** to undo.

    the fiasco in Afghanistan was driven by Biden’s need to appear strong.

    No, it was driven by the fact that an agreement was in place already.

    He wanted to establish his place in history on the 20th. anniversary of 9/11

    No, there was an agreement in place already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad


    Another day another loss of approval for Biden.




  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad


    Interviews taken in first nine months in office.

    President Obama: 131

    President Trump: 57

    President Biden: 10


    President Biden has now not sat down for an interview for six weeks.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,411 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    he had a pretty big ****ing mess to clean up to be fair...



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,625 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    He's President until 2024. You should probably get used to that instead of desperately clinging to these inconsequential polls. It's getting embarrassing for you at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,594 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Depends on what you are actually looking for. Trump gave plenty of 'interviews', although never with CNN or the like. He was great at being 'interviewed' by his people, lying and simply making completely made up stuff. Plenty of soft ball questions, many simply statements about how awesome Trump was and asking him to explain how he is able to be so great. He was very rarely actually properly questioned, fact checked or held to account.

    Was there really any value to any of those 57 interviews?

    What we do know is that Biden came in with Covid as No1 item on his agenda and he has done an amazing job, particularly with the irresponsible talk and actions by Trump, the GOP and a massive section of the population which seem intent on ignoring the cause of the country for their own narrow aims.

    2 was undoing the climate damage, in particular reasserting US leadership in Paris Accord.

    3 was getting out of Afghanistan.

    He has made significant strides or fully completed these. Compare that with Trump who achieved none of his stated targets.

    So, sure, if all you want is to count the number of times a person lies to you as a positive then Trump was way ahead. Start counting the number of tweets and he was the most talkative POTUS ever. Unfortunately, he also stopped the daily press briefings, limited press access and lied nearly every time he talked.



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Josephfromdowntheroad


    An amazing job on COVID???

    More people have died under his watch than trump's already?

    Getting out of Afghanistan was a complete disaster.

    His handling of COVID and the Afghanistan exit our the main reasons he is hurting so bad in the polls so the evidence supports my claims and quite convincingly proves your claims have no basis in reality.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    No, you're the CNN poll guy. You literally just linked to a poll aggregator site that rates CNN polls highly.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    DELTA VARIANT.

    You have already acknowledged that you believe hie has done an amazing job with Covid by going radio silent anytime anyone asks you how it could be improved.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,594 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    More people have died of Covid because of Trump, the GOP and their supporters refusing to get on board with the needs of the country, putting their own narrow selfish goals (owning the libs) over the needs of their fellow citizens. Trump continues to refuse to endorse the very vaccines he wanted the country to give him 100% credit for, even claiming that the companies had slowed down production to avoid giving him credit.

    US is out of Afghanistan. Job done. Disaster? Not really. How many US people were killed? Very few. They are finally out of that quagmire.

    The reason he is hurting is multi. Part of it is that a sizeable chunk of the population don't even believe is is the legitimate POTUS. Many others wouldn't care what he did since he is a socialist/communist or whatever. Many still don't see any benefit to them personally as the economy continues to bump along, due to the continued reticence of so many to take the vaccine.

    You are not not judging him with any degree of unbias. If you are an example of peoples biased view of Biden then it is no surprise that he numbers remain low.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,197 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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