What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

The initial financial hit that intensive farms will be hit with will take some recovering from, looking at the 2020 cso data Irish farmers spent 500 million on fertilizer and 1.5 billion on purchased concentrates, looking at 2022 fertilizer spend will be over a billion to maybe 1.5 billion if lads cough up current prices and don't cut back usage and you could easily see meal price increases of North of 25% for 2022 that's another half a billion...

So ballpark 1.25-1.75 billion in extra costs will be incurred on farms next year for just these two inputs, their is going to have to be north of 5 euro plus beef and milk in the 40's of a base price for farmers just to maintain income levels

I tracked him as far as I could but he threw my tail.

Take me to your dealer I roared but to no avail.

Will milling quality wheat not be gold dust next autumn, meaning even at current prices if you can source n it was/would be worth sowing

Fertilizer will be more expensive next spring but it will not be 3 times this years price, if it is usage will drop massively.

Is that for the spring or now ??

if it’s for the spring it might just be that they don’t know and are hedging their bets with a high price.

Yep, a smaller merchant up the road here has Urea in the yard, it was either €810 or €820 a ton he quoted.

Also Yarra is shipping in Ammonia from outside Europe as cost is much lower. This will also keep its costs down.

Ammonia prices are near double in all Global markets.

Certainly the harshest impact is in Europe.

Costs will be kept down as much as possible, agree there.

Unless there is significant changes quickly even that will not keep prices below a 1000 a tonne for urea.

Ammonia for next spring is already being priced at 1000 dollars in America, and they are the largest natural gas producer in the world.

China is now placing restrictions on Urea exports, they make one third of the global supply.

France have said they doubt their demand will be met and customers in India and Brazil are having orders cancelled.

The unfortunate reality is that in the last fortnight nothing has changed for the better and some new globally significant problems have arisen.

This will kick the living shi8 out of beef feedlots across the world and the same with global milk. As I've said before there are feed lots in America where hundreds of thousands of cattle are finished a year and none of them have enough grass to wipe a single boot. Same with many with big ban of Cows, thinking of one in the Dakotas where a Fermanagh man is milking 4500 cows on a thousand owned acres. Corn and alfalfa fed.

His costs are going to be brutal. I hope he manages.

We are one of the tiny few where grass is the staple.

Most grains and maize/corn are grown north of the Equator. South of it big players like Brazil and Argentina are fertilizer dependent.

Australia is about 3 % of global wheat but a seventh of traded grain.

In milk under half of global milk comes from China, India, Pakistan and America.

The 2 in the middle are already hitting supply problems with fertilizer. The first isn't going to export a drop and the yanks are facing a doubling, at least in fertilizer costs.

Hopefully there will be a bumper crop in the Southern hemisphere.

Things are still going to be very bullish for meat, grains and milk globally.

🤣🤣

Exactly.

Most of the world's dairy farmers are down stream of Ireland, New Zealand etc. High cost producers compared to us

Food prices could become a global political issues the next few years.

The Arab Spring was on the back of a 200% surge in nitrogen in 2007 and 2008.

That said the status of food production needs to be a decent payer again and States must face that they live in a world where talk of solidarity and cooperation doesn't really beat reality for long.

And we’re not low cost despite some of the crap Tegasc print ….free land free labour .no debt …….

You would imagine with the price of fert and meal, it will make us more competitive. Will land go up or down, I'd say up

…cheap fertilizer.

Fyp!

Talk here about grass being the cheapest feed to produce should be well tested next year. I’m getting out of grass and it’s relatives (wheat, barley etc) for next year because of their need for large amounts of artificial fert…my objective is to buy no fert for next year!

I'd wager that Rodney will weather next year in alot better shape then a lad with with a couple of hundred cows in Ireland stocked at 3.0 plus cows ha on the milking platform and a serious urea addiction problem, unlike here the US government subsidised their dairy sector to the tune of billions of dollars in direct aid the last 2 years and will do the same going forward, the EU want us all going organic and will happily see intensive farms go under once their euthopian organic farming vision is implemented, I'd wager when food inflation goes of the charts they will row back of course but how long will it take for them to admit they where wrong again like the renewable energy debacle