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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Maybe stop posting nonsense trying to scare people

    Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education stopped releasing province-level data on confirmed cases and deaths in March 2020, so your graph is useless and ironically more nonsensical than the below.

    To get round the shortfall in information, Ghafari and his colleagues analysed figures from Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) on how many deaths there were from all causes in the first nine months of 2020. They compared these with historical data to see how many more deaths there were than usual. The researchers used this excess deaths figure as a proxy to estimate the number of covid-19 deaths and population-level exposure to the virus – an approach that has proved accurate in the UK and South Africa.


    The NOCR began releasing past weekly data stratified by age group in August, which allowed the researchers to reconstruct the dynamics of the pandemic in Iran from January 2020 through to September 2021.


    They calculated how many people in each province had contracted covid-19 using known global figures on the percentage of infected people who die, known as the infection fatality rate (IFR) for each age group. Dividing the number of excess deaths by the IFR gives an estimate for the number of infections, and allows you to tell what proportion of the population is infected, also known as the viral attack rate.

    The analysis showed that the total infected population was probably very high in many provinces. Eleven of them had rates over 100 per cent as of 17 September. The highest rates were seen in Sistan and Baluchestan province, which had an estimated attack rate of 259 per cent. If accurate, that would mean most people have had the virus twice and some for a third time. The researchers conclude that herd immunity through natural infection hasn’t been attained in Iran in spite of widespread exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, probably because of immunity waning over time, susceptibility to new variants of concern like delta or a combination of the two.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/iran-braces-for-sixth-covid-wave-despite-speedy-vaccine-rollout

    Yet they're still facing another wave, so natural herd immunity isn't doing a whole lot.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Will somebody in charge or pretending to be in charge tell NPHET members to stop going on the radio. Your one Mary Favier on it this morning saying "we are in for a bumpy ride" and "more restrictions likely"

    Its just pure scaremongering at this stage and a nonacceptance of the reality that this is as good as it gets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,065 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Not at all.

    Those ICU numbers and breakdown are available on hspc and geohive BTW.

    Yes Sweden has a very low number of elderly admitted to their ICUs.

    The was a big kick up about it around last year when the numbers showed that many elderly had died on wards or at home having been refused admission on the basis of their age to ICU.

    Their ICU figures for mortality were so much better than their neighbours in Norway despite their lowish ICU beds, because they were triaging patients.

    Totally different triaging beds if they are scarce or but unless someone has a DNR or is end of life it should not be OK to refuse emergency treatment on the basis of age.


    Commission report on it in Dec 2020, last few points relevant here https://ltccovid.org/2020/12/16/report-of-the-swedish-corona-commission-on-care-of-older-people-during-the-pandemic/

    Post edited by Goldengirl on


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,033 ✭✭✭Ficheall



    So you were in a nice hotel having food and sitting close to people, but thankfully the experience wasn't completely wasted, as you managed to find something to complain about.. Are you sure it was "glee", and that she wasn't just being polite and smiling (insofar as a mask would permit one to know) to a customer, having doubtless heard the same complaint a gazillion times already? Or did she cackle and hop on a broomstick, or break into song with a flash mob? Or is that a reference to your aforementioned barrier to human connection/communication - she most likely trying to be pleasant while bored, and you taking umbrage at her as some Great Oppressor?



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Nyero




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,519 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    I've noticed through the pandemic almost every Irish authority figure in politics, policing and health feels the need to take on the role of parent and treat the public like children. Constantly drumming home threats, worst case scenarios and over simplifying every message.

    I don't think it's effective at all and seems to even promote a juvenile response from the general public like looking for loopholes and exceptions and just generally seeing those authority figures as adversaries rather than something helpful.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,439 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    I see this morning Mr Martin talking about the seasonality of covid.

    And earlier in the week we had Leo stating officially that the vaccine protection was waning.

    These are just conspiracy theories according to certain posters here, I wonder how they feel about the people in charge of this country being conspiracy theorists?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It does make you wonder why with very few cases and very few deaths Ireland never opened in the Summer. Now with hospitals up 15% weekly, ICU up 20% weekly and deaths up 150% weekly everything is just the perfect time, so lets open up everything heading into Winter.

    Maybe just me but it does look a bit mad !

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,439 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    You have no idea what I think it is, I certainly gave no personal opinion on it in the post you just quoted.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,556 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Well seeing that we have posts mentioning waning it’s important we actually understand it as some people might not.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The nonsense spoke about here is that "waning" effectively leaves the vaccine useless, whereas what it actually means is more people get infected but incredibly strong protection against severe disease is maintained.

    The nonsense written is that the virus is only driven by seasonality, whereas the reality is that seasonality is an outcome of the virus becoming endemic which is probably just around the corner



  • Registered Users Posts: 553 ✭✭✭Apothic_Red


    A question for those who want to fully lift all restrictions.

    Imagine if ICU beds were infinite.

    Have you a figure for how many hospitalisations, ICU admissions & deaths are tolerable before restrictions should be reimposed ?

    Think I read before there are 80-90 deaths per day on average, so would an additional 10 per day be acceptable for a fully open society ?

    It's the elephant in the room that nobody seems willing to address, what price a life ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Depends if the pubs are still open or not from the sound of it.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,439 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    It was always mad, and it was always the question, but when anybody asked it they were shouted down by the shills.

    In August the government announced a final reopening that was over 2 full months away, on a date that was effectively around the start of the flu season.

    Why? A blind man could have seen what was going to happen, no hindsight needed, the posts asking this are there for all to see.

    The laughable part is that they did the exact some thing in 2020, stayed closed all summer and then tried to open up in the winter, look how that turned out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Nyero


    And they announced the Friday of a bank holiday, leading into the mid term ,where a lot of people would be booking hotels, restaurants, jazz festivals, gigs etc.

    Has the reopening been due for Monday 25th it would have been a lot easier readjust by the following weekend.

    It seems to have been missed that Oct 22nd wasn't exactly the best day to reopen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭Multipass


    Indeed what price a life - how many lives will have been lost because of restrictions? We currently have 1 million on waiting lists, and that will only increase this winter. And these will generally be younger lives lost, with arguably more damage caused to young families etc. How many lives could be saved if the billions spent on the pandemic had been put into general improvement in hospital care. Yes the hospitals being overwhelmed affects everyone, but don’t give us this rubbish about the price of life when quite a few of us are probably going to die in the coming years through lack of access to the system in time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭cheezums


    waning effectiveness has nothing to do transmissibility, it means the vaccines ability to protect against disease weakens over time. that's been proven pretty comprehensively no?



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Another poll in the journal showing almost 50% of people will reduce their contacts this bank holiday weekend.

    Either the media is so biased that they rig these polls or Irish people are tick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Or my mother who has had her initial Parkinsons appointment with a consultant put back by six months (and this is in the PRIVATE SECTOR) due to Covid, and will now end up further along before she gets medicated.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,580 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Are there legitimate reasons why we aren't ploughing through boosters? Would there be any drawbacks? Just seems like a no-brainer



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Heading for 2,500 at 10.35% positivity off 24,000 tests.





  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Waste of doses as some may not need one at all, especially younger age groups and it's really not good public health policy to keep jabbing everyone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Russman


    Anyone know if the positive tests are cross referenced to the vaccination data ? Like, would we know how many of those 2,500 were fully vaccinated or not ?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    They don't ask if you are vaccinated when you are tested anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Can someone explain to me how we have one of the best vaccines rates in Europe but our cases are going up and up?? I am very much in the camp of get on with things but that doesn't look very likely for much longer. What is going on?



  • Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭Birdy


    Vaccinated people can still contract the virus and can still end up in hospital with it.

    We have also eased most of the restrictions. People are being social again and that was always going to lead to an upsurge in cases.


    There's also been 15 school clusters in the past week. The government seems happy to let it rip there with a very little mitigation measures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    The vaccines are only grand. As far as vaccines go though, they're not great at all. No decent vaccine should require a booster that often, mutation or not. It's obvious some great research and science went into them, but they're not doing what we had hoped. Anyone saying that this is what was expected from the vaccines is delusional, they're a dissapointment and something better is going to have to come down the line either in the form of a better jab or an anti-viral drug. You can blame the unvaccinated all you want, but we have an extraordinary amount of people vaccinated, so that **** won't stick to the wall for much longer.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    This is happening in all countries as they open up. Singapore for example has circa 80% of their population vaccinated but are in the top 15 for cases at the moment (50% higher than Ireland). Iceland also a high vaccination rate (>80%)is currently seeing a weekly increase of 41% per week from a low base though so still half Irelands case numbers per 100K.

    I think everyone has their theories on why this is, for me it is - even at 80% there is still a large unvaccinated base, vaccine is circa 90% effective and people who are too elderly or frail that the vaccine does not really help.

    On the good news, Israel vacination rate (65%) opened up in the summer and case numbers rose 9 fold from the end of July to the middle of September. Now the rates have fallen back just as quickly and are back where they were in July (<100 cases per 100K)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    As have a lot of countries e.g. Scandanavian countries are very much open and have nothing like the case numbers we have. Is our extensive testing regime finding all these cases that are not being tested for in other countries?



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