The coming conflict over Taiwan

Looks like a chess move to re-highlight the aggressive stance of China towards Taiwan to a worldwide platform. Whether the US would actually step into that conflict if it were to happen, I don't know. Perhaps it's also a pretext to supply Taiwan with better defensive tech.

China has such a hardcore nationalist base and comprehensive propaganda system it would be relatively easy for the country to start a conflict with Taiwan in order to invade the country, even as the aggressor, but of course it would be completely condemned by the rest of the world, which could have serious economic implications for China. A conflict to take the island just wouldn't make any sense for China.

Taiwan is the new Czechoslovakia, I don't see the Western alliances doing anything about it. There is just too much risk in a hot war between nuclear armed nations.

Taiwan was a founding member of the UN if I remember correctly.

Its every other country that enables this,

by bending over to them.

any mention of Taiwan by any country or any sort of university or any official body is met with a rebuke from China.

ideally the rest of the world needs to start removing its reliance on Chinese manufacturing and moving it somewhere else .

its amazing the world is standing idly by also as to what happening with the Uyghurs in xinjinag, it’s like our generations Holocaust and everybody is standing by watching it.

We might see the first large scale use of paratroopers since WWII. Taiwan is vulnerable to its air defense systems being disabled through hacking and electronic warfare. China probably has an army of sleeper agents already in place. China won't be concerned about any losses it takes as long as it is successful.

The US has backed off from China both in North Korea and in Vietnam. I don't see that changing.

If the USA allowed Taiwan to return to hands of China it will act as a signal to the world that US Hegemony is at an end. You would expect various Asia-Pacific countries like South Korea to begin winding down ties with the US as their safety is not guaranteed.

The US has to defend Taiwan should they wish to remain the hegemon.

No idea where.your getting those ideas

The yanks will always being looking for the next big conflict, in perpetuity, as you cannot justify maintaining such an incredibly powerful industrial military complex without creating or finding a reason for it all to exist.

I'm not suggesting there is no need to maintain military forces (I wish there was), or that someone doesn't need to lean on an increasingly aggressive CCP. But one would certainly be worried about the exact motivations - and the depth of those motivations - when the Americans are involved. It's never straight forward or completely transparent.

My sense is the Chinese would be too cautious to push the button on an invasion. Could there be another gameplan here, a blockade/slow strangulation the way the the Spanish have been trying to do with Gibraltar?

China will roll all over Taiwan whenever it feels like it. The US has shown that its promises are confetti in the market.

I think people underestimate Taiwan, they were the ones to inherit the navy and most of the air force during the civil war with experience built up during WW2 and living under threat they've invested a lot in it.

So while China could just out gun and out number them, It's not a case of this being easily won for china without US involvement.

The Spanish tried that with Gibralter and for 13 years kept the border closed, it didn't work then and wouldn't work now. The only way China could do a blockade is to set an exclusion zone around the island (like Britain did with the Falklands) and threaten to shoot/bomb any aircraft or Sea vessels that enter it.

After that it would be a case of who blinks first, would America and other countries send a flotilla of boats through the zone? Would China dare fire on those ships especially if they were cargo ships and from many different countries?

That’s my point , what can actually be done if the do decide to invade?

Dunno about over running in a couple of days, the west of Taiwan is densely populated, all the major cities are that side.

Taiwan are prepared, there are regular drills over there. They are waiting for the day and are always ready. But yea it wouldn’t take long.

The Chinese apparently Said they were planning to degrade the Taiwanese airforce by making daily incursions into their airspace so they can wear out the ageing Taiwanese aircraft ,due to the fact China has prevented Taiwan from buying new aircraft for last 30 years ,

China hasn't currently got the ability to mount a full on invasion of Taiwan ,it's not so easy crossing the Taiwan strait ,it gets even more difficult when you have a a decent military who have prepared since day one trying to stop you ,Ans it's not a simple case of flying in paratroopers

Taiwan was abandoned by the UN 50 years ago or whenever that was.

even tho they were a founding member.

you even have to look at the last couple of years, with the WHO and the coronavirus to the depths China goes to pretty much remove any acknowledgment Taiwan even exists.

I had a taiwanese friend here for a few weeks just as the virus was becoming known worldwide,

we were shopping and gathering the receipts for VAT reclaim, when you are getting a vat receipt the shop asks for your country, in every shop , the shop assistant struggled to find Taiwan on the list of countries, after a few shops I pretty much said to them to type it in to find it to speed them up.

Don't know how true this is but have read that the US is wary of their best equipment being sold to Taiwan due to there being loads of Chinese spies in military/politics

Like another poster said, I feel China will try wear them down slowly, before trying anything, and it will have to be meticulously planned. But even then, it would not be easy. The Taiwan army are well armed, and well trained, in my opinion better trained than the Chinese.

It definitely wouldn't be over in a few days. Can see the Chinese though throwing waves at the Taiwanese forces, as they won't care about loses.

My only fear is that western politics can do absolutely nothing swiftly, so the help Taiwan might need could be slow coming, which would be disastrous. Intervention would need to occur before the island falls, as there is no way the west would risk the civilian casualties that could occur if they had to try retake the island.

I'd agree with some of what you say, but in China, there is little to no public or private media. The CCP controls all narratives.

True, much bigger or massive losses may be harder to hide for most cases, but the censorship in China is unsurpassed and on a scale not seen anywhere else in the world. Any conflict breaking out, will have a narrative based around one premise, and one alone.

Not sure if that level of escalation would happen. As soon as a blockade happens then a new trade war(one where perhaps zero trade occurs between us and china) happens and you have millions of middle class on both sides going apeshit about declining standards of living. The greed of the middle class will be what saves us from the futility of major wars.