Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

@Snooker Loopy wrote:

We had 2,020 people in hospital on 18th January, it's now 503

We had 221 in ICU on 24th January, now it's 97

We can cherrypick data all we like to "prove" that one number is worse than another. The only thing that's important is the trend. Hospital admissions have slowed drastically. They grew by 20% in the week to 18th October. And then by just 2% in the week to 25th October.

The numbers given by Donnelly are already out of date.

I don't think there's a chance in he11 there'll be another lockdown tbh. I think what we have now is where we're going to be for the next 6 months or so. Then again who really knows with this. I thought De Gascun gave a good explanation at the briefing the other day about how a virus becomes endemic, and at the end basically said we still don't know yet how long it will take for this one to do that.

You may need to say this a few more times.

ICU and hospital numbers at the moment are due to the big spike that started weeks ago.

We are over that now. First hospital admissions drop, then the rest lag behind.

How do people not know this by now

We aren't and should never implement restrictions and stop living our lives over fear of 'long covid', the most common symptom seemingly being 'fatigue'. I'm fatigued from reading people post about it.

If you're doubled vaxxed this whole thing is just irrational fear at this point

But we've been running at 2000+ cases for the last fortnight, these have still to feed through to hospitalisations.

There's also another 2 weeks of waning immuinity, especially in the 60 year old cohort that were given AZ.

Throw in the increased social gatherings etc, winter, Delta Plus, thing is a tinder keg

Good job there was a 3 months gap with AZ as it would of been far worse. Come to think of it extending the Pfizer to 3 months as well looks like a good idea now also when you think about it.

@Snooker Loopy wrote:

I posted it yesterday, you probably missed it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073884#Comment_118073884

I'll even update it to account for today's numbers;

Yes. And you can see by the graph above that I was quite right to dispute it. When you claimed that numbers would continue to rise "steadily", we were at 484 people in hospital. 9 days later, we have 503. 19 more. At this rate there'll be a whole 600 people in hospital by Xmas. That's not the "steadily" you had in mind. The reality is that at current levels, hospital numbers will stabilise around 500 +/- 10%, ICU will stabilise around 100 +/- 10%.

There's a possibility we'll start to see a decline, but that's just adding optimism to the figures.

It's pretty clear that you've paid no attention to the numbers at all except what you hear being called out on the radio.

We've been running at higher case numbers since the start of October. The link between cases and hospitalisations is a little more complex now than it was before. There's no real linear relationship, and despite high cases number for the last ten days, daily hospitalisations have been dropping. Which doesn't make sense unless you take into account the age profile of the new infections.

I also have a hunch that over the next two weeks we're going to see a decent drop-off in testing numbers and positive swabs. Since the start of October there have been other flu-like illnesses circulating, driving high testing rates at covid centres. This appears to be easing off, which likewise will cause a drop-off in testing numbers. But that's a pure hunch, these have failed me often in the past :D