Will there be another lockdown?

No, there won't be another full lockdown again, simply because it would be hard to justify.

We have 92% of adults vaccinated and a lot of the over12s too. That's what they told us we had to do to get back to a relatively normal society again, so if they now lock us down when so many are vaccinated, it means we really are hammered and can't win against this virus.

They can of course keep certain restrictionsin place or limit numbers, ask us to keep wearing masks etc, but we aren't going back to 5km from home etc. It would be political suicide.

Might just have to live with the numbers and deaths unfortunately.

I don't think the public would buy in as easy as you think to a further lockdown, regardless of deaths or hospitalisations. The health service had plenty of time to upgrade and increase capacity, the vaccination program captured 90% plus - it's unfortunate if the deaths and admissions are increasing at this point but there won't be any going back.

Ah, no matter how high the death rate goes? I don't think you've thought about what you said there. I think there would certainly be a point where enough people would support severe restrictions. I also think it could include the trajectory. A steep spike in deaths might cause greater change in public opinion then a slow and steady increase.

Under the current projections there wouldn't be any justification or support for lockdown. We'll just have to see how things work out in reality

I think they would accept progressive restrictions without the death rates going wildly high. I'm still not sure what the definition of lockdown is and I doubt we're all talking about the same thing when we use the term.

I don't see point of locking down.

Say we do lockdown again, all start WFH, limiting travel, no pubs etc.....then what? We have nothing in our armoury to do that would make opening up again safer.

We have done all we can, the numbers ate simply rising because people are out there mixing, working, drinking etc. They'll simply do it again on any more reopening, so we'll end up back where we are now.

Vaccinations were the silver bullet. We have mostly got them now, time to just live again. No other way round it.

But I guess those things you suggest are in our armoury, i.e. WFH like you say. So if massive pressure does come on the health system they can start to use those things to dial it back.

The thing is that “fear” that people had when it was first here will never be back (thank ****), we understand it way more now and people aren’t as bothered. We did nearly 18 months so if people have stopped caring that’s totally understandable too. We just have to open, stay open and get on with it.

Why’s it odd? What do you want to people to act like at this point - oh we can never allow anyone to die ever again?

I agree in general, with any restrictions introduced henceforth just to ease the hospital burden rather than clear it. That said, it depends also on the relative merits of mRNA boosters, 5-12 years mRNA vaccines, and new technologies such as nasal sprays for breaking transmission which might change the game. There were also patents out there for detectors registering Covid in a room of say schoolchildren or an office / factory, but that is out of public view at the moment. It may be that cases peak this week or next and then decline to around an average of 2k per day.

2 words for everyone on this island

'PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY'

Let us live our lives

Media love Tony and NPHET and by god they are campaigning for another lockdown

I wouldn't say that. But it would be good if people behaved according to the reality that if hospitalisations and deaths get too high then there's a great chance that we'll see the reimposition of progressively harsh restrictions over the winter. That's all.

If the health service can’t cope then blame the health service - we’ve been fed lie after lie about how they were getting extra funding to increase capacity the last 18 months and here we are with April 2020 slogans about stopping them being “overwhelmed”. Sorry, but it’s sink or swim time for them.

Hopefully the second generation vaccines will be approved soon, in time for most people's boosters. This should bring their efficacy back up. Not withholding another variant...

The government cannot afford PUP at the 350 per week level, one of the highest in the world, if not the highest. EWSS is due to end at on the 30 April 2022. At some stage the plug is going to be pulled.