Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

awec · 27-10-2021 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079905#Comment_118079905

It makes sense but at some point we will have to draw the line. It's all well and good saying that we should continue to pick Sexton cause nobody else has stood up yet, but at some stage it's going to be the better call to pick the obviously lesser player if only to give them experience.

At some point in the near future Sexton will need phased out whether someone else steps up or not. There is 6 blocks of fixtures by my count between now and the WC (2 6N, 2 AIs, 2 tours), which is plenty of time but it'll be panic stations if we're sitting here this time next year with the same questions.

27-10-2021 3:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080291#Comment_118080291

Either someone overtakes Sexton or he keeps starting. If he's still first choice come the world cup that will say a lot more about the other options than it will about Sexton.

Carbery is in the squad on promise, not form and I'm doubting his capacity as a ten at this stage. I don't know what Harry Byrne has done to warrant selection either, seems again like wishful thinking by the coaches.

Ross Byrne, Burns and Carty are done. If they can't make the squad ahead of Carbery and Byrne junior then they're out of the frame entirely. A change in the coaching ticket or an injury crisis would be their only hope.

We really need someone to step up at this point, we've no one remotely close to Sexton.

aloooof · 27-10-2021 3:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080590#Comment_118080590

I think part of the problem with the 3 he’s selected is that an injury crisis there isn’t unthinkable. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if at least one was injured before the end of the Autumn Internationals (tip wood).

molloyjh · 27-10-2021 3:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080291#Comment_118080291

I’d be shocked if anyone actually disagreed with this tbh. But what if this time next year Sexton is still delivering and is still miles ahead of anyone else? Should we go into the RWC year with him at the helm or with a clearly inferior player? And if the latter, then who should that be?

The truly scary thing is that we may find ourselves hoping Sexton remains fit for 2023 because we don’t have a good enough replacement. Because no amount of experience is going to make an average player magically good enough. So unless we have a realistic option then that’s where we may still end up.

Interested Observer · 27-10-2021 3:44pm

D'Arcy and Horgan were on Second Captains today talking about what happens with age, both said you get to a point where your athleticism pretty much plummets and it can happen quite suddenly, D'Arcy for example felt in whichever season it was he was playing well in the Euro games but by the time it got to the 6N he was a different player (for the worse). That could and will happen with Sexton at some point soon enough. But he is still miles better than all the other 10s we have imo. It's nearly a no-win position for Farrell.

accensi0n · 27-10-2021 3:46pm

I'd see it as guaranteed that Sexton won't be the starting 10 come the world cup.

He's 36. A bad concussion or an injury that takes at least a few months to heal could easily see him done.

Even in a year's time his body will be noticeably less capable of physically performing, let alone 2 years, at 38.

Someone will definitely be on par or performing better in a year's time.

So no need to give someone more game time than really needed now, at the risk of reducing the chance of beating NZ, winning a 6N's etc.

RichieRich_89 · 27-10-2021 3:50pm

I'd be thinking they should go full-strength in the NZ game, and in the preceding Japan game in order to warm up for NZ. And then maybe make a few changes for the Test against Argentina.

versus Japan and New Zealand:

Andrew Porter
Ronan Kelleher
Tadhg Furlong
James Ryan
Iain Henderson
Tadhg Beirne
Josh van der Flier
Jack Conan
Conor
Jonathan Sexton
Simon Zebo
Fua Leiofi Bundellu Aki
Garry Ringrose
Robert Baloucoune
Hugo Keenan
Rob Herring
David Kilcoyne
Tom O'Toole
Ryan Baird
Gavin Coombes
Jamison Gibson-Park
Harry Byrne
James Hume

...and against Argentina:

Andrew Porter
Ronan Kelleher
Tadhg Furlong
James Ryan
Iain Henderson
Caelan Doris
Peter O'Mahony
Gavin Coombes
Jamison Gibson-Park
Harry Byrne
Simon Zebo
Fua Leiofi Bundellu Aki
James Hume
Robert Baloucoune
Hugo Keenan
Dan Sheehan
Cian Healy
Finlay Bealham
Ryan Baird
Jack Conan
Craig Casey
Ciarán Frawley
Jordan Larmour

I could see Sheehan being more involved than that. I suppose it depends on how good his scrummaging is in training.

Interested Observer · 27-10-2021 3:52pm

I know the year out with injury has obviously not helped but whatever has happened with Carbery is a real pity. At the moment he looks like a worse player than he was 5 years ago.

phily2002 · 27-10-2021 3:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080133#Comment_118080133

Murray was possibly our worst player in the last world Cup. He got picked for the Lions on reputation and got dropped for Price who is bang average as well. 9 was a big weakness for the Lions.

His performance at the weekend was terrible. He offers no attacking threat which gives defenses a massive head start then just box kicks.

McGrath has been in terrific form, once again this season he has beaten the most defenders and made the most breaks. Blade, Marmion and Doak are all looking very good also.

The 9 is shocking selection in the squad. JGP is number 2 at Leinster, Murray is limited and doesn't suit the fast gameplay Farrell talks about.

Casey I get as its future thinking and he could become a great player but the best 9s for the last while have all been left out.

Podge_irl · 27-10-2021 3:54pm

Reaching a RWC semi final would be the pinnacle of nothing. It would be a monkey off our backs and nothing more.

AbusesToilets · 27-10-2021 4:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080776#Comment_118080776

In fairness, same could be said for beating NZ. It'd be nice to get that albatross off of our necks though

bilston · 27-10-2021 4:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080837#Comment_118080837

Difference is that beating NZ was an end in itself. Reaching a WC semi final would be nice, but I'm aure everyone agrees that winning a WC is the actual target.

What I would say is that if we beat France or NZ in a Q/F then whoever we meet in a S/F or Final would hold no fears.

awec · 27-10-2021 4:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080717#Comment_118080717

The chances of Sexton being a player capable of leading us into the WC in 2 years time at the age of 38 are close to zero. No amount of experience is going to make an average player good enough, but no amount of willpower or careful game management is going to enable a 38 year old to carry a team in a position like 10 for a WC campaign.

We need to accept the reality, Sexton won't be first choice in 2023. The decision really is at which stage do we want to start the preparation for that tournament, because that's the point at which we need to make the change irrespective of anyone's form. I think we're ok until after the 6N.

Podge_irl · 27-10-2021 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080875#Comment_118080875

I largely agree but its a matter of expected value. Is Sexton at 38 going to be better than Ross Byrne? I think probably yes, but I suspect one of Healy/Crowley/RByrne will be better again at that point.

But equally, I think the Rory Best issue didn't work out, but it was not a risk taken without understanding the potential downside. I think the chances of Best being better at the 2019 world cup then Herring would have been was pretty high.

TRC10 · 27-10-2021 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080875#Comment_118080875

Sexton won't be Ireland's starting 10 when he's no longer Ireland's best 10.

It's as simple as that really.

I do agree that he will start to decline soon. And when that happens we'll pick the guy performing at the highest level. That's all Farrell can really do.

Personally I'd only play him in the NZ game. I wouldn't have had Carbery in the squad but Farrell's clearly backing him to be no.2 so may as well go all in on him and start him v Japan and Argentina. Byrne coming off the bench in 1 of them.

TRC10 · 27-10-2021 4:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079205#Comment_118079205

Bealham subbing at TH is better than Healy starting at LH imo

Pretty sure he was the sub TH in 2016. That went ok IIRC

molloyjh · 27-10-2021 4:47pm

Yeah Carbery with Sexton on the bench for Japan. Sexton with Carbery on the bench for NZ. Carbery with Byrne on the bench for Argentina.

aloooof · 27-10-2021 4:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080772#Comment_118080772

“His performance at the weekend was terrible.” - He played his first 20 mins of the season off the bench, and was thrust into an error strewn Munster performance. It was a terrible collective performance from Munster, but Murray himself was actually reasonable. He even injected some tempo.

phily2002 · 27-10-2021 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081074#Comment_118081074

Maybe reasonable for an academy player getting their first cap(and even then we'd say he was just not ready). For supposedly our best 9 coming off a Lions tour he was terrible. All the other Lions managed to hit the ground running

Teferi · 27-10-2021 5:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080776#Comment_118080776

I want us to reach a World Cup semi or final so people on the irish rugby internet can stop talking about it as if it's the be-all and end-all of rugby. It completely distorts almost all discussions of the international team when in reality it's a tournament every 4 years that requires an unreal amount of luck for every team in the world not named the All Blacks (and maybe the Boks).

If you offered me a World Cup or a few Slams in the same period, the only reason I'd be tempted to take the World Cup is so I wouldn't have to hear about bloody quarter finals ever again.

Dubinusa · 27-10-2021 5:40pm

I doubt Sexton will be involved after this season. I would think that Farrell will shoehorn another in and game plan around that. The reason being that a 38 yr old will not get us through the world cup. If Sexton is still our 10, that will be due to the pretenders being... pretenders.

I doubt Murray will be 1st choice either! I believe Casey will bypass him by the world cup. Hopefully, Doak continues to impress. JGP may still be in the conversation also.

I would like to see Doak play some outhalf! Perhaps, he could be a viable alternative?

Sexton is just an absolute freak. Fair play to him for being the talent he's been. Injuries included, the man has been exceptional for us. It says a lot about him that he's still our best option after a 12 year run. Players like him don't come around too often!

My thoughts are that Farrell is doing the right thing. He's been very open to bringing in new talent. The issue now is, will he give them a run out v NZ? I think that our depth is great and there's a lot of positions that if a starter goes down, the next guy up is as good. Beirne for me will be pivotal! He is without a doubt capable of being our key player in the pack! At 6 I believe he's capable of being the best in the world and he's proved a lot of people wrong in the 2nd row!

The interesting thing for the autumn series for me will be our back line. If they are as sloppy as they were in the 6nations, then I see the problem being Catt.

I am positive 😌 atm. I think our squad is very deep. The outlook is good. Just think of the lads who are so young and new to the environment!

O'Toole. He's progressing nicely

Casey. I think will be a 50 cap player

Coombes. Will be in around the squad

HB. Could be our future 10

Hume. Another lad who's been impressive.

Balacoune. Will be around for a long time.

Keenan. A gem

Kelleher. A possible 50 cap player

Then there's lads knocking on the door. Healy, Tom Daly, Sheehan, Timoney, Ross Molony, Ahern.

We are in a good spot!

pickarooney · 27-10-2021 5:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079541#Comment_118079541

If we had won our group in 2019 we would have lost in the QF anyway because we'd have played a SH team and they are notoriously more difficult to beat when it matters. Which kind of proves the point that the 6N is a much easier tournament. In 2015 not one of the 6N teams reached the semis.

aloooof · 27-10-2021 6:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081370#Comment_118081370

This is goalpost moving, tho. The point wasn't that the 6N is a much easier tournament (it is, by definition). The point being made was that a GS is easier to win than it is to get to a RWC SF. That's a very different point. And I don't think that stands up to any scrutiny.

I take your point that the SH teams are notoriously difficult to beat in a RWC. But you don't always face a SH team in a QF. And that goes back to my point about the vagaries of the draw. For example, the following all got to a SF (or nearly did in Scotland's case):

2019: England beat Tonga, USA, Argentina and Australia. (The France game was cancelled due to the hurricane).
2015: Argentina beat Georgia, Tonga, Namibia and Ireland. (They lost to NZ in the group stage).
2015 SA beat Samoa, Scotland, USA and Wales. (They lost to Japan in the group stage).
2015 Scotland were a whisker away from making a SF if they had beaten Australia. That was following wins against Japan, Samoa and USA. (They lost to SA in the group stage). And Scotland haven't been near winning a GS for an age.
2011: Wales beat Fiji, Samoa, Namibia and Ireland. (They lost to SA in the group stage).
2011: France beat Japan, Canada and then beat England in the QF. (They lost to NZ and Tonga in the group stage).

The above illustrates that it's reasonably typical. It also illustrates you can even tolerate a loss in the group stage (2 in France's 2011 case), and still get a reasonably favourable draw in the QF. Do you honestly think any of the above were more difficult than winning a GS? Genuine question.

Ireland haven't been able to do it, and that's to our discredit. But that doesn't mean it's more difficult than winning a GS. To me, this is all recency bias; if we hadn't won in 2018 and 2009, I don't think anyone would be saying this.

ersatz · 27-10-2021 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118079559#Comment_118079559

To win a grand slam you've to beat 3 of the top 6 or 7 teams in the world, at least one of them away. That's incredibly difficult which is why it's as rare as hens teeth in our history. We haven't been to a 1/4 final but people are rightly disappointed that we haven't as on at least a couple of occasions we really should have. I can't say the same about missing out on a GS. There's no particular expectation that we should be winning them. It's a drag when we come close like 2007 but the reaction is totally different to the likes of 2011/19 when we arguably left a 1/4F on the table.

ersatz · 27-10-2021 6:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118080717#Comment_118080717

Crazy that this point keeps having to be made here but the fact is Sexton, even if he still plays to an exceptional level come RWC 2023, simply cannot put back to back games together NOW and definitely won't in two years. There will be another 10 playing a lot of our games in the next RWC whether they are up to the task or not. That's the reality the coach has to face up to, which I think Farrell is doing.

molloyjh · 27-10-2021 6:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081563#Comment_118081563

I mean Sexton has put back to back games together already this season. He also played all but 1 game in the 6Ns this year. He played every game in the 2020 6Ns. He was available throughout the RWC. He played every game in the 2019 6Ns as well as every game in the 2018 6Ns.

Whats crazy is just how often the above paragraph needs to be pointed out. Because this idea that Sexton isn’t putting games together back to back is certainly not at all true when it comes to Ireland. Nothing could be further from the truth.

AbusesToilets · 27-10-2021 7:02pm

At this point of be happy if we simply performed well in a knock out game.

ersatz · 27-10-2021 7:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081661#Comment_118081661

Sexton plays very few games and comes off injured in a lot of them, if you imagine he won't be more prone to injury in a couple of years more power to you. The idea that he will be available for back to back tournament games in 2023, given his legs and concussion history, is wishful thinking. I doubt very much if Farrell shares your confidence.

Podge_irl · 27-10-2021 7:24pm

I'm getting lost.

Is the current narrative we don't give upcoming players enough gametime cause Sexton plays all the important games or that Sexton is incapable of playing more than one important game in a row?

molloyjh · 27-10-2021 7:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081769#Comment_118081769

So you’re just going to ignore that Sexton has played every important game for Ireland bar one in the last 4 years then? Fair enough. I only pointed that out to you in the post you quoted. Maybe you missed that.

How many of those games did he come off injured in? Given that you are making these assertions it would be nice to see some actual factual information backing them up. After all you’re assertion that he can’t put back to back games together has been debunked. Can we really trust you “he comes off injured in a lot of games” narrative?

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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