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Acceptable Covid death rates

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Your post is merely telling us that you don't own, or run, your own business.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    So Cathal Jackson has to patrol Harcourt Street out of hours, in case anyone may be queuing at his closed business??


    Laughable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    We have been incredibly compliant here

    I see parents at the school gate wearing masks which is totally unnecessary outside, I don't but its me and one other parent


    In London, they dont even mask up in shops or on the tube



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭Multipass


    It’s not true to say that the target is no deaths - the health system has finite funding, there is always, and always has been a level of acceptable death.Access to new drug therapies, and age limits on procedures are two that immediately come to mind.

    Looking at Covid in isolation is not helpful - doing everything possible to stop every single death from Covid causes effects which will cost other lives. I hope you used the word ‘eliminate’ by mistake, because that boat is long gone.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I was in Barcelona a few weeks ago, no one was following any restrictions.

    That being said, I don't mind popping a mask on. It's a minor inconvenience.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 38,500 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    No accident using the word eliminate. Ever hear of smallpox? You know what caused it? A virus.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    exactly and both aren't a big deal in any way.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    both work well.

    actually restricting numbers isn't an infringement seeing as every venue only has a certain capacity anyway which is ultimately a restriction, and i believe that restriction can be enforced by law if it is found that a venue is over it.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ever hear of the common cold? flu? RSV?

    Smallpox was caused by a virus and it was eliminated, therefore all viruses can be eliminated is mind-numbingly simplistic and just wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    with respect theatres, pubs, clubs etc, while they do contribute to the economy, don't make a massive contribution to it.

    certainly their contribution is very welcome, but as we have saw the economy has ran fine without them showing us that their contribution is massively over stated.

    it is the tech companies, big pharma, and a couple of other industries which keep this country afloat, if we had closed them down but kept restaurants and similar open, then we would be in a very bad economic situation.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I live in London. This is a lie. It's optional in shops and mandatory on the tube.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    the countries that never shut down absolutely did have a ridiculous number of deaths and ended up s//t shows, brazil, parts of america, sweden eventually had lock downs because of defiance of the government.

    other countries that are now open with little to no restrictions either had harsher restrictions then we could ever dream of meaning they are doing well, or are just continuing as they always have been and doing badly.

    i am glad i lived in ireland rather then say, italy or spain, or even the uk.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    he has done everything he can, as have most to be fair, it's a small minority who have been trying to ruin it for the rest of us through out.

    the truth is in reality, you actually don't understand what trade offs in public health actually mean, they don't mean what you want them to mean, as in come down on your debunked side of the debate.

    actually we do take all measures to limit the spread of all sorts of viruses, the reality is that those viruses don't spread at a ridiculous level and have vaccines for years if decades, so don't require any sort of restrictions on movement, and hopefully the same should happen with covid 19.

    we have been balancing the restrictions with all else through out, again it was and is a small minority trying to ruin everything for the rest of us in the aim of trying to implement whatever nonsense agenda they are at, the cold hard reality is nothing is going to be balanced to your specific wants because even with a highly vaccinated country and population your wants arenn't of the necessary good.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    Cool story. Perhaps you could explain, maybe in simple terms for me (nice personal abuse btw), what legal responsibility Cathal Jackson would have in relation to members of the public congregating on Harcourt Street, a public street, hours before his business opens?



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,500 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    No, it means it's possible and there are many scientists who will spend their whole lives, if they don't find a way, trying to eliminate it. I'd guess more than for any other virus in history. There's a great chance they find a way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    You're partially onto something here, but you might want to dig down into that a little bit further.

    Did you ever hear of smallpox? The more dangerous variant of it had a CFR or 30%, was more fatal in young children (up to half of all infected babies died), and about three-quarters of survivors were left with very deep, disfiguring scars. Major complications were frequent, including damaged lungs, blindness and permanent physical disabilities due to joint damage.

    Covid, by comparison has a CFR less than 2%, considerably less in children (0.2% or less, less dangerous than 'flu), and the majority of survivors are fully recovered within about two months. Major complications are very rare and typically resolve in 6-12 months with no permanent damage.

    That might give you a clue as to one reason why eliminating smallpox was possible, and Covid will not be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    both drug therapy and age limits on procedures aren't comparable as they aren't specifically about an acceptable level of death per se, but about effectiveness vs risk and cost and giving potentially false hope to a patient.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭crossman47


    The UK is no example to follow. They are prepared to tolerate c. 150 Covid deaths a day (equivalent to about 15 here).



  • Registered Users Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Pdoghue


    I would take issue with these paragraphs. What is your definition of trade offs in public health. As someone said above, public health by its very definition involves making trade offs!

    Secondly, we clearly don't take all measures to limit the spread of all sorts of viruses. For example, we have tolerated flu deaths for years with no restrictions even though we have vaccines. Look at the social distancing measures which we have deployed to eliminate Covid - those measures have largely eliminated the prevalence of the flu over the last 18 months.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,097 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    flue doesn't spread any where near what uncontrolled covid would.

    so therefore with flue there doesn't need to be restrictions, all though we should have been educating people on the importannce of hand washing and covering their mouths when sneezing and coughing, especially at this time of year, something most of us have generally managed to grasp back as far as children, but to much of a minority haven't got it in my experience.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,500 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I'm confident that with all the great minds working on this virus that we'll find a way to eliminate it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,085 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    I assume the immunocompromised are already protecting themselves by wearing effective masks (not face coverings), practicing good hygeine and avoiding high risk environments.

    That leaves them unable to enjoy certain activities that the rest of us can, like being packed into a nightclub, or swimming in a public indoor pool, but those activities are out of reach anyway whilst there is a nasty virus in widespread circulation.

    It also means that if we relax mandatory restrictions (including face coverings), the health status of the at risk is effectively public, worn on their faces, and that includes immunocompromised children. That is an extremely regrettable state of affairs.

    I do not, however, see the status quo as an alternative. What we have right now is a policy of mandatory mostly-ineffective face coverings, employed as a kind of covid theatre, which anybody with a basic understanding of masks can see right through. You know when you see someone at the supermarket wearing an FFP3/N99 mask that they're most probably either immunocompromised or caring for/living with someone who is.

    What might be an effective alternative in some parallel universe of robotic compliance or aggressive enforcement is to attempt to squash transmission by mandating proper masking, temporarily closing down all high risk environments where masking is not possible (indoor dining, pubs and nightclubs), and legally mandating vaccination of all workers and school-age children. But that's just not going to happen in this country at this point in the pandemic, and it probably wouldn't even work because vaccines are not approved for under 12s, the constitution is unlikely to support mandatory vaccination, and people would just gather indoors in private just as they did last winter.

    Equally, I see no appetite to give up the largely ineffective face coverings, and no appetite to replace them with effective masks.

    So we're stuck in a kind of perpetual grey, drizzly dawn. The at-risk are not safe and the low-risk are not free. After 18 months of this we should understand that half-measures just don't work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Pdoghue


    But flu spreads, that's just undeniable. I think the point is, is that our health service has the capacity to cope with a certain number of flu patients per winter, some of whom die, with no restrictions in society. We have tolerated this level of deaths heretofore, call it acceptable or not. With Covid, the health service is overstretched to the point of collapse; hence the need for extra measures such as social distancing measures.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Basically none of these great minds think that is the endgame. The absolutely accepted scientific view is that it will simply become endemic. There is disagreement about whether this was inevitable but at this stage its too late to expect anything different.



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,500 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Have you links to all these scientists that say it can never be eliminated?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It’s a beautiful dream but most scientists think it’s improbable. In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come (see 'Endemic future').

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    One of the reasons smallpox was eliminated was because apparently it could only replicate/survive in humans. The challenge with most other diseases is that they don't just infect humans but other animals. So even if you do eliminate it momentarily in humans it can just reinfect humans from other creatures that are suffering from Covid. Which is where Covid came from in the first place.

    Eliminating viruses/diseases is very difficult. Smallpox is unique(Polio is nearly there) in that it's been the only virus ever successfully eliminated. Even at that it took a concerted campaign decades to do so. It's a bad example of a strategy to bring up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    whatever , i know what i saw . i was in the natural history museum two days ago , majority of people not wearing masks , i wore one much of the time myself and all of the time in stores



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    "Majority not wearing masks in a museum" is different to "nobody wearing masks in shops or the tube"



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