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Acceptable Covid death rates

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,173 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It's probably not realistic at this stage Loaf. Pathogens have evolved alongside humans and really got a boost when we started to live in crowded urban environments in large groups. As such evolution positively selected for taking advantage of human nature. Lockdowns aren't sustainable because of human nature. During historical pandemics of significantly more deadly pathogens commentators noted how after a while you would have people throwing caution to the wind because they understandably needed some sense of normality back. If that was the case with horrors like plague and smallpox with death rates between 30 and 60% across all age groups, never mind lifetime effects on those who survived, what hope do we have with a pathogen that many see as a little worse than the flu that only kills the very old or already sick.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,921 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    But isn't this a difficult, nuanced position for the government and public health authorities to take? If you're telling a teenager who is extremely unlikely to be seriously affected by covid that they should wear a mask on the Luas, are they not going to turn around and say "Why is it okay for me to go to a nightclub then? Is there any rhyme or reason to these guidelines?"



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Not just any nurse can staff an ICU bed. ICU / Critical care nurses are very specialised and there are dozens of vacancies at the moment the HSE can't fill.

    I think Goldengirl would know a lot more about that.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We’ll have to wait for End of the Road to reply and tell us what the right thing is in his opinion.

    We know for a fact that masks and social distancing are not going to stop a respiratory illness.

    Over 90% of us went and got vaccinated. So I’m keen to understand what the right thing is.

    Im sure he’ll come back with some nonsense like just because you can doesn’t mean you should. Humans doing normal things are to blame in that case



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    But you do accept that face masks and social distancing reduce a respiratory illness?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,965 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    Teenagers may not be seriously affected by Covid but they can still be carriers and spread it.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We wouldn’t have 4000 cases a day if they were working so well.

    And I know somebody will say it could be 10000 without masks but there is no evidence to back that up.

    The UK removed the mask mandate back in July and their cases never spiralled and are actually dropping now.

    We were also doing grand before the mask mandate in Ireland.

    The obsession with masks is bizarre at this point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Not really. You can also look at from the perspective of personal choice and necessity. It is a necessity for people to use public transport. There are plenty of people who can choose to go to nightclubs or not go to nightclubs. You could make the argument that those in the nightclubs are accepting that risk by being there. Those that are sitting beside you on the DART are not.

    Regardless, I would think that most people should be able to understand that that reductions in the spread of infection can be made everywhere and if we do the easy ones then it allows for other things to go ahead.

    If they refuse to enforce mask wearing on trains or Luas under current circumstances I would accept them having a maskless car for those who won't wear a mask. Let them all pack in together. From a public health management perspective it would not be an ideal thing to do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    People aren't wearing them jacdaniel. That is why the numbers are going up. Do you not realise that numbers were much less when people were observing guidelines properly?

    It's analogous to you deciding that seatbelts don't work, yourself and your three passengers refusing to to wear one and then, when the one in the passenger seat gets a serious injury in a relatively minor tip, going and suggesting that that is proof that they don't work.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    They are wearing them. Compliance continues to be through the roof. They are very popular.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Have you honestly been on public transport recently? People are wearing them where it is actively enforced. It isn't being enforced on public transport. The handful of times I have used it over the past few months, there has been I'd say a 20-30% noncompliance with proper mask wearing.

    Post edited by Donald Trump on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Backstreet Moyes


    The only people i know with a horrible attitude like this are jealous people who can't work from home or who love being in the office.

    Why do we need to go back to the old normal, Covid has shown that working from home is possible and that offering full time wfh, hybrid and full time in the office where possible should be the way forward.

    We are going into flu season and cases are rising it would be foolish to force employees into work where they can work as effectively from home.

    Any employer that cares about staff would be offering the possibility of working from home if possible during flu season.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I wouldn't know about public transport because I don't use it because of the requirement to wear a mask. But I have never seen a person not wearing one when a bus passes me o the street. They are extremely popular.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    I get 4 buses a day. I could count on one hand the amount of people i've seen with no masks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,965 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    We have an anti masker in the room, what else don't you like?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    People are allowed to disagree with you. In Ireland people who disagree with other people are know as anti-insert word, or they're from or in another country. It's because of the moribund fourth estate. It means people can't cope with opinions they don't hear on RTÉ or read in the identical newspapers. It's a big problem, but it's the reason Ireland stands alone in the erstwhile free world in terms of its reaction to this virus.


    But we're going off topic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Are you counting people with no masks or people no wearing their masks properly? The last time I was on the train there were two people in my half of the carraige with one mask hook over one ear. So they had masks, just not wearing them. One got on like that and stayed like that, the other got on like that. but settled down to snooze on the train and unhooked from one ear. Another two who had them down around their chins and pulled them up and down intermittently. Another one who had the mask covering her mouth but not her nose. The gas thing was that when the last one got on and sat beside one of the ones who who was pulling hers up and down intermittently, she stopped pulling it up and down and kept it up. Whereas she hadn't minded pulling it down when there was an older lady seated across from her who was wearing her mask properly!

    The latter example is why I would propose specific "no mask" carraiges. I expect that many of the patriotic anti-maskers are only brave when everyone else is doing the work for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,965 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    No i don't agree with selfish people who are only thinking for themselves and not others. Wearing a mask is not a big ask.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,230 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    he already knows the answer, so there is no point in me telling him what he already knows.

    and jack, you are really in no position to call anyone's posts nonsense, now, tbh.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,230 ✭✭✭✭end of the road



    wearing a mask, and where reusable, cleaning the mask after use, helps minimise virus spread.

    social distancing also helps with minimising virus spread.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 733 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    I am aware, but our health service was always in that state because of the working conditions here so the buck stops with the government. They drove the potential staff out before the pandemic!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    I'm counting people wearing masks. I absolutely hate them and would have mine off in a flash if there wasn't a fine, but from my experience everyone is wearing them. Ive seen drivers challenge people with them around their chins or getting on without them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Fair enough. If that is what you saw then that is what you saw. I can only go on what I saw which was a lot of people not wearing them at all or not wearing them properly.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It is when it looks like being forever.


    But to get back on topic, I think it was seamus (I may be wrong) who suggested 'tolerable' instead of 'acceptable'. I think 'tolerable' is better than 'acceptable'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,230 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    our doing grand (it wasn't grand in reality) before the mask mandate was simply that we were only at the start of the pandemic here.

    the mask mandate came in before cases started seriously rising and there is no doubt they have helped minimise virus spread.

    cases are rising fast in the UK currently.

    I'm very highly educated. I know words, i have the best words, nobody has better words then me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 733 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    I found as soon as masks came in that nearly all social distancing stopped in shops. Prior to that in a quiet shop people were generally giving far more than the required 2 metres distance. At my local shop people would even wait for someone to clear the aisle before going down it. In the queues, people would stand at the 2 metre marks on ground unless it wasn't busy and they would give even more distance.

    As soon as the masks came a huge amount of people stopped doing that and were right on top of each other!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    But you're ignoring the scientific data that masks reduce spread, not 100% but a significant amount (and depending on the type of mask and how the person wears it).

    You're trying to use anecdotes to back up your position.

    As a low cost, easy to implement solution, they're fairly effective.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    People like to think they can do something to feel safe. It is a comfort blanket really. They picture ping pong balls bouncing off a curtain.

    The physical reality is more mosquitos buzzing through chicken wire.

    Your own immune system, in particular mucosal immunity, is your real first line of defence against particles in the air if you are sat or stood next to an infected person, not a cloth panel over your mouth. It is amazing how little advice has been given out in how to manage immunity. In fact, much of the lockdown-think had people doing the diametric opposite of what the ought to have been doing in that respect - stuck inside, boozing, dodging exercise, not getting to chat and laugh with friends. The list goes on. History will definitely note that when we get to zoom out and see the big picture and longer term impact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    You're asking questions here that have been answered to both you and Fintan over and over on the main thread .

    And you wonder why nobody answers you?

    Are you actually really denying that masks and social distancing reduce respiratory illnesses ?

    Look at the lack of flu last winter if you need any confirmation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    This is bs about the UK . Their cases have beena disaster since they opened up as you know or are being disingenuous .

    Next post please supply proof or links to these ridiculous claims you are making here .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 733 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    100% agree.

    It is absolutely crazy to think there was a time they were enforcing restrictions which kept people to within 2km of their houses, and also visiting a loved one outside to talk to them through a WINDOW was banned, but yet hardly anything about encouraging people to stay healthy or boost immunity!

    I remember Varadkar laughing at the idea of Vitamin D and that was well into the pandemic. Not enough research to support the use of vitamin D apparently 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 733 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    But how many people are using decent masks and wearing them correctly?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,905 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Cases are not "rising fast" in the UK - they're going the opposite way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    @Deeper Blue no, they are plateauing , thankfully .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,905 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Looks that way, maybe because of boosters 🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Hope so and hopefully that is going to knock our cases in the elderly and vulnerable on the head too. Something is working!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We have more than one in the room skimpydoo, that has become very obvious in the last few pages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    The UK have generally been a disaster since the beginning.

    I have a good few friends and acquaintances in the UK, they regularly moan about the UK and Brexit in particular. I’ve not met or heard from a single person complaining about relaxation of restrictions.

    not scientific, but it seems like the vast majority believe they are on the right path.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Well hope we all get there .in the end .

    By excusing their "unacceptable death rate " because people are not complaining , in your circle of friends anyway ,about relaxation of restrictions there ( we all have different experiences , in that I think , possibly due to age , idk?) does that mean that that is what Ireland should aspire to ?

    I could not live or work through that . I know nursing colleagues in the UK who have left during this time , broken and completely burnt out .

    That does not mean I , or people I work with or socialise with , aren't sick of this and want it to end , asap .

    But I recognise that for many who find our restrictions oppressive they too feel that they can't live through much more of this .

    Do you think if it was put to a vote, the majority here would be in favour of accepting more deaths , rather than Covid passes and masks and continuing social distancing as is now ?



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  • Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "Do you think if it was put to a vote, the majority here would be in favour of accepting more deaths , rather than Covid passes and masks and continuing social distancing as is now ?"

    I really shouldn't be engaging you on any level but the above paragraph qualifies as a blatant attempt at emotive coercion. You know very well that the issue cannot be presented in such black and white terms, it's far more complex and multi-faceted than that. Shame on you for resorting to such dishonest tactics, equivocating a relaxed attitude towards checking passes with an increase in Covid-related deaths.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,351 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    I don't equate the two . It's your post that is dishonest to claim that.

    I am responding to another poster and it is applicable to the point of this thread .

    As for " emotive coercion " if I can even understand what you mean when you say this , sounds like more hyperbole .


    Those restrictions are all that is essentially left , restriction wise , which as you appear to agree , is not that onerous .

    So the question posed by the op was that do people agree with the assertion by Paul about fixing an acceptable death rate figure and dispensing with the present regulations ?

    I think we will definitely have immunocompromised people dying at a high rate ( as they are now unfortunately) if the extra doses do not give them adequate protection and this viral transmission continues to circulate at the rate it is without some restrictions .

    These are the people presently very ill in ICU ( as well as unvaccinated ) which is why the op was so concerned about that article.

    However if cases do fall generally as result of boosters and remaining restrictions we will reach a point where people may have to make such a decision .

    My opinion is that that time is not now .

    That was my point , no hidden agenda or " emotive coercion '!

    There is no way to talk about this issue without an emotive aspect I don't think.

    The fact that you think that that is coercive is your problem really .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,642 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Well yes, the evidence suggests that a relaxed attitude towards checking passes does equate to an increase in Covid-related deaths.

    If you ask me, we are at a stage where

    (1) mask mandate indoors in public places

    (2) Covid certificate requirements for international travel, health centres and hospitality

    (3) Maintenance of public hygeine standards

    (4) Social distancing and minimising the number of contacts

    are sufficient restrictions to ensure that the hospital caseload can be managed.

    If we then take the WHO advice and vaccinate the world before booster shots, we have a chance to turn this into a endemic disease sometime in 2022. If we take the selfish/Israeli approach of booster vaccines for everyone every few months, then we will protect Ireland better but at the expense of a longer time before we return to full normality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    We had a very relaxed attitude to passes last year because basically they didn't exist.

    Compare death figures to this time last year. Yeah.

    BTW - if you use a phrase like 'The evidence suggests..." it is often considered polite on the internet to present that actual evidence in your post.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,642 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This is mostly an evidence-free discussion place.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That which can be asserted without evidence...

    Over 18 months into this, if anything, there appears to be no co-relation between the severity of a lockdown (incl. facemasks) and the following result.

    Many of these restrictions appear to be self fulfilling prophecies and have no way of being verified.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    This is a discussion about the acceptable level to which we should let people die, it's already fairly far off piste of what rational humans normally discuss.

    And has to ignore that even if this number was decided, the only way to allow them to occur would be to start denying treatment to people and let them "die naturally" because they'll take up just as much of a hospital and ICU bed even if someone has decided that the death is acceptable.

    But it is a natural endpoint for the "no masks, no restrictions, no vaccines, COVID is the flu" crowd of mouth breathers that exist in the world, as long as they aren't trying to qualify for the Herman Cain award themselves of course, then it's a case of jam them full of every medicine known to man so they don't have to pay for their own stupidity,



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This type of response is such a well know script that it is indeed deserving of the name cliché and I pin that accusation on my accuser, which is what they're resorting to.

    Hopefully we all die naturally, at least that's how I would like to go. Considering that we are all going to die anyway, the real question is - what is an acceptable level or risk?

    Sir David Spiegelhalter - a world renowned authority on the statistical assessment of risk reckons that the additional risk of death of cv19 in the UK was equivalent to 55 days extra days of normal risk. If you're a child it's 2 days. Another way of looking at it is to ask what's the average age of which people die of CV-19? It's about 82.5, what's the average age of which people die of everything else - very slightly less. So we are not looking at something which involves risk of an order of magnitude greater than what we face in every day life.

    So you have to decide what is the degree of risk you are prepared to accept? There are some people who believe that no risk is acceptable that no additional deaths from a disease like CV-19 which can be prevented should be allowed as a justification for lockdowns, masks, vaccines. The problem about that apart from the fact that there is no real world evidence that these measures are actually working, unless we were all to be sedated, locked in wooden boxes permanently and fed by robots, it attaches no value to all the various other respects in which the counter measures undermine our national life. It attaches no value to the economic destruction, it attaches no value to the severe educational damage, it attaches no value to the fact that interaction with other human beings is a basic human need. At some stage people will have to accept that there is more to life than the avoidance of death.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    And you're still ignoring that people don't die in isolation and need hospitals staff and beds unless you deny treatment to them, excess deaths cannot occur without the denial of treatment or the overwhelming of the health system (leading to even more excess deaths not just from COVID).

    For all the other bluster about extra days, you need to ethically be OK with denying treatment to people for the extra days to be a factor.

    You need to answer that question first rather than dodge around it.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It’s hard to say what is an acceptable level of deaths though because ultimately a Covid death is just a death where somebody tested positive using a questionable PCR test.

    If we tested all those people again would they still be positive?

    Even if so, how much of a factor did Covid actually play in the death?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,473 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Would they still be covid positive if you tested them again?

    Likely not if they died more than a week ago.

    You would hardly want to be basing any policy on that though



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