Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

In an ideal world Id agree with your thoughts on the influence of the DUP on the electorate but am worried about if violence occurs (as it is increasingly likely e.g yesterday’s arrests https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/03/police-attacked-in-belfast-over-northern-ireland-protocol then all bets are off and loyalties to opposing sides will entrench again.

They would die (and I mean that literally (and old literally not the new version)) before hitching themselves to anyone else. Tories represent "true Britishness" and the DUP are desperate to fit in with that ideal regardless of the consequences or the fact that "true Brits" don't know they exist or couldn't give a $h1t about those "Paddies & Mick's"

In all fairness though the alternative vista. There is no alternative but to side with the party that means a United Kingdom. Reneging on the protocol which was the best of both worlds has meant they have no choice but to cut their nose off to spite their face.

It only matters if that was to matter to voters in NI. And sleeze in the Tory party is not going to have any effect on voters in NI as the No1 priority is which side you are on. Once you have your side then there really is little to choose from and you go with the most likely winner as otherwise you are wasting a vote.

While there is some movement in politics in NI, they are very far from a functioning democracy in terms of voters changing votes based on performance or the like

Unfortunately, much of the DUP's losses have been the TUV's gains. Lest anyone is in any doubt as to the TUV's position on Brexit, here is a link to their Brexit page.

SNIP. Don't just paste images here please.

They don't need to associate with any party in GB.

The tiny size of NI within the UK and the impact of first-past-the-post combine to mean that it's rare for it to make a blind bit of difference at UK level who the DUP vote with on any issue. On the rare occasions when they do actually hold the balance of power they should use that, not to reinforce their craven dependence on some British political faction that despises them, but as leverage to secure policies that will benefit the people they represent. Between 2017 and 2019 their price for supporting a government should have been the implementation of Brexit on terms that would minimise harm to NI. Instead, they threw their weight enthusiastically behind those pressing for a maximally harmful Brexit, in the pathetic hope of securing their approval.

It was a disastrous decision, both for them and for Northern Ireland. But let's not tell ourselves - and let's not let them tell themselves - that they had no other choice.

I disagree. Hard-wired into the EU position here is that the EU's response to UK shenanigans will be everything but a hard border. To allow a hard border to be forced is to allow the UK to win; that's the last thing the EU wants, not just in our interests but in the interests of the wider Union. The UK cannot be seen to secure advantage from flouting the law, trashing its treaties and betraying its word.

This is set out in black and white in Article 16. If the UK invokes Art 16, and the EU adopts countermeasures, in deciding on those countermeasures "priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Protocol" — i.e. you don't adopt countermeasures which harden the Irish border. You can be sure that it wasn't the UK that negotiated that particular sentence into the Protocol.

The EU will (further) harden the GB:EU border before it will harden the NI:RoI Border. Not only does that help to preserve the object of the Protocol, but it's also a much more effective way of putting manners on the British. Vastly more trade crosses the GB:EU border, so measures adopted there will have a bigger and more immediate impact. Plus they will have their impact in GB rather than in NI. We know that the Westminster establishment is basically indifferent to the welfare of NI or to the state of public opinion there, but discontent in England they will pay attention to.

So, if the gloves do come off, for reasons of both principle and pragmatism hardening the Irish border will be the EU's last resort, not its first.

Sounds more like a Celtic sea border - I e. Ireland outside the single market.

The NIP does put NI outside from UK internal market. I'm happy to say that.

I’d consider myself quite up to date with Brexit politics and especially Northern Ireland security as it was a major part of my masters (way back in 2007/2008 in international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict and counter terrorism) but am ashamed to say that although I heard the term ‘Irish Sea Border’, I never took the time to research what it was. I thought it was checks on products and people from the U.K. to Ireland and vice versa carried out in ports and airports, but thinking about it, that makes no sense.

From what I have just read its checks on products coming from the U.K. into Northern Ireland carried out at U.K. ports and airports to ensure standards and appropriate tariffs are met. The EU requires many goods - such as milk and eggs - to be inspected when they arrive from non-EU countries, while some products, such as chilled meats, aren't allowed to enter at all. This lead to sausage roll and chicken nugget gate. Once in Northern Ireland there is no restrictions on moving it to Ireland. Honestly you can see where the Unionists are coming from, (well kind of) there is an invisible wall between Northern Ireland and the U.K. and there is restrictions on what they can and can’t do, with additional queues, paperwork and headache to go to what they consider is one entity.

No way does that justify the self sacrificing of everything that has been achieved after decades of violence and bloodshed. But the mentality is incomprehensible.

We already have had days of violence on the streets and we haven’t even ventured into the expectations if the NIP and subsequently the GFA is breached.

Fcucking masked men entering a bus, pouring petrol inside and setting it alight because of the NIP is scary. https://youtu.be/CCdk36E-XZ0

And a huge difference between what could happen in a ‘Troubles (can’t stand that term as it completely downgraded what occurred 2.0 and the 1970s up to the GFA is that Ireland will be in the crosshairs of any loyalist paramilitaries as they believe all of this is our fault. You could just imagine the East Belfast or Portadown drawl saying “If it wasn’t for Ireland, then none of this occurs.”

Just to clarify, and apologies if it wasnt clear, the comment regarding ‘if it wasn’t for Ireland none of this occurs’ should have been in inverted commas as what the loyalist paramilitary would say or think, which in turn in their eyes makes Ireland a target.

Just to be clear, the people who spouted absolute lies on Brexit are at fault. The people who swallowed it unquestionably are morons but not at fault. As the legend James O’Brien would say ‘blame the conmen, not the conned’. And Boris Johnson is at the top of that. Man is pure Fcucking evil.