Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

And who will win if your prediction is correct. It will not be Joe Soap.

We are entering a period similar to the 70's where Inflation will be driven by energy costs. This in turn will cause wage increases ( probably below rate of inflation bit still above present wage increases). Central Banks will not be able to prevent inflation without a substantial recession so may well accept inflation above 2%. You may well see inflation in the 3-5%/year bracket.

Other half is dead set on a new build only, desperately trying to convince him to consider other options but it’s proving difficult. The other reason is that we’re buying from abroad to move back to Ireland which is another whole layer of stress. We have the mortgage approved, which is about to run out now and the HTB ready to go but just cannot get accepted to view anything remotely in our price range. We were going to just move back and rent for a while but that’s just a no go.

The estimates for valuation was at the end of 2020 and we have seen prices rise 10% so far this year so there must be some truth in the ESRB calculations.

Oil prices are not rocketing because of OPEC supply prices it carbon taxes applied by the countries they are used in that is causing most of the inflation in petrol and diesel. Yes Gas is pushed by demand as it is the only alternative to nuclear with wind and solar. And if you have nuclear you do not need wind or solar.

Its mad isnt it. The world is going to have inflation caused by taxes.

Don't worry, Mr Reeves, I can assure you that USC is only a temporary emergency measure and will be lifted shortly, just as soon as the crisis is over.

2nd qtr 2014 was the bottom of the market in Limerick

There is a big difference between now and 2008.

In the run up to 2008 the Household consumption of Fixed Capital (which will mainly be Residential real estate) did not correlate to the Net disposable income of households as a bubble was created due to excess credit in the market. Since the Crash of 2008 there has been a direct correlation between household spending on property and net disposable income of households.

Source: CSO - N2009 - T09. Household Income and Expenditure

Grab it. Given the current state of the market, you should have no problem selling it if you are fired. You might even find another job.

I probably missed some news, what's happening with USC? What it has todo with Inflation? Increase or Decrease?

USC is one of the many reasons FG in particular will be turfed to the opposition benches in a few years, precisely because nothing has changed with it!

In 2016 they campaigned with a promise to abolish it - when the economic recovery was underway and things were looking up. Yet apparently we have had significant economic "growth" since 2016 but the USC is still with us. It's not something easy to define but it is just not right to claim that everything has been hunky dory and sustainable, but things like the USC and other income tax reforms have not occurred.

Like with the ESRB report mentioned above; it is an officially used metric that shows what it is intending to show but it doesn't necessarily mean that it is a practical barometer on which policies should be based - I hope no one is a regulator but for sure the best and brightest do not end up at the regulators as private practice is too lucrative which means it would not be a surprise for me that the regulators are floundering after what has happened the last few years and change for them and their way of looking at problems is happening too slowly to take meaningful action to correct the situation.

Well, when you look at how public funds are spent I think it is not about replacing it but cutting the cloth to fit the services actually needing to be paid for. Broadband, children's hospital, Dáil printer, HAP, health service etc. all point to the State having too much money and not enough sense. As such, I think it is reasonable to want to reform a tax that was brought in to assist with the bailout. Perhaps a wealth tax could be brought in to replace it and an additional tax at a higher rate for incomes over €150k or something like that.

Public funds are wasted in every economy and every country. At nearly 60 years of age I am an agnostic about waste on any government and public services. We do not want direct taxes, we do not want indirect taxes, we do not want consumption taxes, we do not want water charges.

USC brings in over 4 billion in any year. LPT bring in less than half a billion. Considering if you have less than 13k in income you do not pay USC,

On the first

12k you pay 60 euro, from

12-20k you pay 160, then from

20-70 you pay 2250 they it's

8% on everything.

20k you pay 180

30k you pay 630

40k you pay 1080

50k you pay 1530

60k you pay 1980

70k you pay 2430

Now watch what happens

80k you pay 3230

90k you pay 4030

100k you pay 4830

150k you pay 8850

200k you pay 12850

500k you pay 36850

Now do you understand why wealthy people hate it. But worse than that you cannot avoid it, you cannot use losses from a sole trader business to bring down your USC, you cannot make a pension contribution and get it refunded.

If you are a judge, or a high paid public servant you cannot work the system and avoid it, neither as banker or a CEO of a PLC can you avoid it.

People who dislike USC have not got a clue about progressive taxation. If I have any disagreement with it is that the base rate below 20k is too low. 4.5% should be the base rate to 70k