Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

There's no need to watch this space. It's not going to happen. And I note you are basing this on your own personal lack of confidence in the Irish government when there has been consistently no basis for that opinion since brexit began.

Where and when has Ireland faltered can you explain

That option exists only in the fantasies of Brexiters and Eurosceptics.

Lots of veiled cheerleading for the UK going on today

Read my post i said "by the likes of you" also Ireland isnt negotiating here the EU are, how and why would Ireland buckle? It makes no sense.

Indeed, the TCA and Protocol are agreements between the EU and the UK. Ireland aren't even involved in the talks - we are 'interested observers'.

I'm sure we will here about "checks away from the border" within the next year.

From yourself and others on here who are desperate for the EU to "lose" or the Tories "win"

You mean some sort of "oven-ready" technological solution?

Well you seem pretty certain that Ireland will buckle and the whole "I hate Brexit but" seems to be the go too tactic for Tories on Boards now so to be honest I don't believe you

It's actually refreshing to see Brexiters had done a complete flip and see their govt as incompetent, corrupt and dishonest. Something Remainers have said for years. Nice they agree on something.

I get BluePlanets point (but not quite as worried about it). That solution (a "Sea Border"/NI protocol) is looking like it may be dying now. The UK doesn't want it to work, and sees benefits in wrecking it.

There's a bit of a way to go yet, but if the UK is determined on its course I have doubts the EU can force them to back down and implement the Protocol. Sure the UK can be economically punished, but perhaps they (the UK govt.) are coming to believe they can weather that. They might benefit from a "rally round the flag" effect (this time nasty EU/France/Ireland etc etc really will be "punishing" the UK quite harshly for their behaviour!). They can also just lie and spin (they are good at that) and deflect problems and blame away elsewhere in same way as they have already done somewhat successfully I'd judge (thanks to Covid pandemic) with natural consequences/effects of Brexit. An election is a long way off, Labour opposition don't look to be in any great shakes to fight one as far as I'm aware (?)

For all the Brexiter "WW3" jokes and sneers during the referendum the EU and its components like the Single Market are a highly successful peace project. I think if the UK does try to use Ireland/NI to wreck the Single Market, for other members (esp. France/Germany) its survival will take precendence over the Good Friday Agreement, NI or indeed (aspects of) Ireland's continued membership, should Irish govt. prove totally unwilling to take steps that might be required to control trade with NI.

More BS.

Irelands position in the EU is in no way under threat.

Also the no great shakes Labour are ahead in some polls now

Just saying it is "BS" does not make it so unfortunately.

Our position in the EU is not under threat yet (and hopefully won't ever be), but the UK govt. appears to be going further than in the past to try and deploy NI and Ireland's links to as a way to attack and undermine the EU and get leverage. That is a stark change from the previous govt. and UK PM I think (under which most of EU Withdrawal negotiations took place). While that govt. were obviously looking for the best "deal" possible, they did at least seem to honestly want to work with the EU/Ireland and sort out something that would keep NI relatively stable and maintain status quo at the NI border. This lot, not so much. It is all about conflict.

I haven't been keeping track of what's going on with Labour or the polls in the UK lately (don't live there) but that's positive to hear.

I remember all those old arguments, and I know that has been done to death. I don't post that much but I do read the thread.

However, I don't think you fully read or understood what I wrote. It's not a matter of someone ever "forcing" Ireland from the EU Single Market/ EU "putting itself first" etc (we are members of the EU after all). The EU won't ever be making any "deals" with post Brexit UK at Ireland's expense. That's a certainty.

No one will "sell us out" or "throw Ireland under the bus", it would be a matter of the govt. here actively making some bad decisions/choices at a crunch time. Basically putting a priority on status quo at border, or even status quo of free trade between NI/Ireland on a pedestal over everything else (incl. EU single market integrity). I think that is unlikely to happen if it ever comes to it, but am not certain (no one can be).

The Irish government no matter how inept people might think they are will not ever choose the open border over the single market.

It's not an option, it's not on the table or in the minds of anyone other than those desperately disappointed that Brexit didn't create a tidal wave leading to Irexit

I think there are several things here that merit discussion. The EU have been happy to let the UK be bellicose and noisy in front of their domestic audience while the EU has quietly schooled the UK consistently throughout the Brexit process. The UK have been giving the EU deadlines for a long time now and yet the UK have consistently been the ones to buckle when the time came.

The UK obviously see the Irish Border as the softer underbelly in their opponent and think that they can leverage an advantage out of applying stress to it. However the EU have the potential to destroy the UK financially. It's a bit like a boxer who believes that he can get at his opponent with consistent body shots, not realising his chin is constantly exposed. His opponent has no desire to knock him out, but can if he needs to.

So far the UK's loud and totally ineffective campaign has all goods entering the EU from Britain subject to full rules and regulations and no regulations on goods going in the opposite direction. Did the UK win any significant concessions from the EU on services or financial services in the Brexit negotiations?? Has the UK gained any advantage in any particular commercial field as a benefit of Brexit???? Will their pharmaceutical industry, or space industry, or car manufacturing gain from brexit????

The single most depressing part of Brexit is the sterile reality that the only vision that the Tory party has is of lowering social welfare and forcing more people into low paid jobs with poor job security. Their vision of Britain appears to date from the 1800's. A bit like the speeches in the house of commons stating that the Irish Famine was the fault of the Irish People, a bit more backbone and get up and go and they would have been fine. the Tory party really have never moved on.