Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

No. It hasn't.

At some point yes, in Ireland, we'll likely see that next year (again the high vax rates means that only a few are self-flagellating themselves with restrictions), New Zealand aren't at that point yet and will probably take longer than Ireland does, but they have been much less restricted for the majority of the pandemic, so swings and roundabouts.

You seem to be fixated on the "peak viral load" finding while trying to ignore everything else (less likely to be infected, clear the viral load faster), I called this out last time and, like clockwork, you're trying to repeat it, why is that?

Lockdown is a restriction on movement. It's that simple.

"natural immunity" will be highly variable depending on the severity of infection, so not necessarily "better" than a vaccination (there's a good bit of comparative data on it out on the net, or good to discuss on the vaccine thread).

The drop off isn't to 0 (just look at the BBC article for some numbers and it can't be linked through to the paper) so the effect wanes but doesn't disappear. The most visible part of that (and some people will argue about it as we don't know the true value) is the effective drop of R0 for delta from between 4-8 down to 1.1 with minimal restrictions in place, if there is significant waning, we should also see significantly higher cases (i.e. exponential rather than linear growth).

Vaccine passports for international travel were expected from early on (pretty much as soon as the vaccine results came out), internal use came about due to delta and you'd argue has been pretty effective both at driving uptake and keeping case counts low while allowing reopening.

I do see them gone from next Spring in Ireland, barring a disaster over winter, there just won't be a need (and yes, it means waiting till spring to see if I'm right or if it is in fact an attempt to control us via vaccinations). But I am covering myself with "barring a disaster" which I get to define when we get there ;)

Not sure why you are putting natural immunity in quotation marks.

In any case, its obvious the vaccines do not stop the spread enough to justify covid passes

Yes, I have an issue with them now.

Yes, if there is 'expanded use' I'll have an issue. What will I do if it does happen? Dunno. That's currently a hypothetical.

Well, that's just ridiculous. No. Before covid, when pubs were closed at 4am, were we all living in lockdown?

You have to explain the big reduction in R another way then (or find ways to say that R0 from delta is lower, or spin it that there is enough with natural immunity to cause the effect).

Yes of course world leaders meet and "compare notes" as it were, or whatever it is they discuss at conferences. And yes we have centralised agencies like the EMA, ECDC, WHO etc etc., which to my mind is a good thing to foster international relations and cooperation. I just can't buy the notion that all these vastly differing governments, mostly democratically elected every 4/5 years, are all gunning for vaccines and vaccine passes the world over. To what end ? Honestly, for me, this all falls down when motive comes into it. Nah, I just just don't see it tbh.

IMO sometimes the easy answer is the right one. A global pandemic, almost unheard of in the last hundred years or so, nobody really having a clue exactly how to handle it, for sure a little bit of groupthink, no doubt about that, and western populations who are largely conditioned to having whatever they want, when they want it, after near on 70 years of relative peace and prosperity since world war 2. We're just not used to being told "no" or restricted in what we can do - and that's a good thing, but honestly I just can't buy that this is all part of a nefarious plan.

From (delta estimated) 4-8 down to 1.1.

Yes. Alan Kelly isn't even in Government and he is trying to lay down the law to NPHET re what they can and can't say about boosters.

Can't believe people are using that disgusting little hole of a subreddit to justify anything.

The Herman Cain award bit, reveals so much about you. You follow a sub Reddit that tracks people who've died from covid, just to glout about it. It takes a very sick mind to actually revel in the deaths of others, which is what that sub does; anyone here can have a look themselves to confirm that. There's not one bit of moral decency on a sub like that, it's full of spite and irrational hatred, which says so much about covid zealots.