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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I've talked a lot about this study in this thread, and it doesn't show what you believe it shows. I'll suggest reading it rather than me reiterating, but in short, vaccinated people are as at risk from vaccinated people than from unvaccinated people.

    Also, just to repeat the point, the vaccines were never approved on the basis of stopping the spread of COVID-19, but only on the progression of sars-cov-2 infection to COVID-19.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    Maybe you can explain to me the science and reasoning behind if I pay to stay in hotel I can eat and drink for as long as I want ? As an unvaccinated citizen I’ve done this a few times already this year.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie




  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's always been a personal choice. There are 5Cs in the explanation of why not and they are -

    Confidence, complacency, convenience (or constraints), risk calculation, and collective responsibility



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  • Posts: 8,647 [Deleted User]



    "Our results indicate that vaccination confers protection against onward transmission from vaccinated index cases, albeit somewhat less for Delta than for Alpha. Vaccine effectiveness against transmission to unvaccinated household contacts is stronger than to vaccinated household contacts, with the latter already largely protected from infection, and especially from severe disease, by their own vaccine-induced immunity, but differences in risk behavior may also play a role. Possible waning of vaccine effectiveness against infection and against onward transmission could result in increases in SARS-CoV-2 circulation among populations with high vaccine coverage. As full vaccination remains highly effective in preventing severe disease, also for Delta, a high vaccination coverage remains the key to control the COVID-19 pandemic"


    I'll just quote from the paper. How does this suggest that vaccinated people are as at risk as unvaccinated?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    People don't trust you and never will. Hence why the dial has stopped at 92% and won't move.

    The only option now is to run this country like a colony, or not



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Well that paragraph you quoted isn't about risk for vaccinated compared to unvaccinated. Table 3 and the surrounding paragraphs shows this info. " Among fully vaccinated household contacts, the crude SAR was similar for fully vaccinated index cases compared to unvaccinated index cases (11% vs. 12%)"



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,841 ✭✭✭TomTomTim


    Honestly, outside of our political elite, the zealots are few. Go around the nation; to pubs, town squares, talk to the people, and you'll quickly find that the tyrants are a very small minority. The internet always has an over abundance of these types, as it's given a voice to the "voiceless", the type of people who no one listened to for the majority of human history. The modern world shows us everyday why these people were not to be listened to.

    “The man who lies to himself can be more easily offended than anyone else. You know it is sometimes very pleasant to take offense, isn't it? A man may know that nobody has insulted him, but that he has invented the insult for himself, has lied and exaggerated to make it picturesque, has caught at a word and made a mountain out of a molehill--he knows that himself, yet he will be the first to take offense, and will revel in his resentment till he feels great pleasure in it.”- ― Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov




  • Posts: 8,647 [Deleted User]




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  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    It says that the vaccine does little in terms of transmission. Its protectiveness is that of reducing severity of disease.

    Your post isn't the "gotcha" you think it is lol



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    92% is about where we get to on measles. As they said today signs are that cases in over 80s are declining. With boosters it will soon be the over 70s, then the over 60s and those others at risk.



  • Posts: 8,647 [Deleted User]


    "Our results indicate that vaccination confers protection against onward transmission from vaccinated index cases, albeit somewhat less for Delta than for Alpha."

    I'll just quite the relevant line from the paper. It's not a "gotcha". It's just science.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,841 ✭✭✭TomTomTim


    Your own link says this:

    "Previous studies have found that people infected with Delta have roughly the same levels of viral genetic materials in their noses regardless of whether they’d previously been vaccinated, suggesting that vaccinated and unvaccinated people might be equally infectious2. But studies also suggest that vaccinated people are less likely to spread the virus if they subsequently catch Delta: their levels of nasal virus drop faster than do those of unvaccinated infected people, and their nasal swabs contain smaller amounts of infectious virus3,4."


    None of this is solid, it's all but speculation until multiple studies replicate the same outcome. It's always the people who preach "science", who seem to understand it the least.

    “The man who lies to himself can be more easily offended than anyone else. You know it is sometimes very pleasant to take offense, isn't it? A man may know that nobody has insulted him, but that he has invented the insult for himself, has lied and exaggerated to make it picturesque, has caught at a word and made a mountain out of a molehill--he knows that himself, yet he will be the first to take offense, and will revel in his resentment till he feels great pleasure in it.”- ― Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    You should look at the data tables instead of the text. It's written confusingly, and as such you're pasting text that goes against your point. E.g. you pasted this to prove your point:

    "Vaccine effectiveness against transmission to unvaccinated household contacts is stronger than to vaccinated household contacts", i.e. like I said, the vaccinated are as/more at risk from vaccinated people than unvaccinated people.

    So why should unvaccinated people be banned from public indoor spaces?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭Healio


    Regulations updated today:




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    The "Public Health Emergency" effectively ended in July 2020....once it became clear that Hospital car parks were NOT going to be full of dying patients,and most reasonably healthy adults can survive covid without any medical interventions or chemical assistance.

    However,the real "Emergency" was then,and remains now,the skewed monster which is the HSE,and it's long running crusade to reduce the principle of Universal Public Health Care to a mixum gatherum of Public/Private provision with BIG rewards for the Private parts and the leftovers for the Publicly operated section.

    What we are now seeing is the culmination of a Public Administration putsch in which a Government of sorts,has decided,on the results of the 2020 "lockdowns,tests & vaccines" experiment to go for broke and cement the "Emergency" elements into ordinary day -to- day Legislation.

    Just like NPHET itself,this "Emergency" legislation is no longer required,as the pre-existing systems are prefectly capable of dealing with the effects of this Virus.

    What we are now facing is a hi-jacking of long established Democratic principles,for some.as yet unclear motives.

    It is Political crookery of the very highest order. ☣️


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    There's absolutely no legislation or regulation to cover this and both types of locations have had successful systems in place since last year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Yesterday government said they will be looking for legislation how they can get the temporary legislation in a new piece. This new piece will not be temporary. They will likely do what Tony tells them to do and put Gyms and Hairdressers into it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    That is the case, however delta uses effectively the same spike as alpha so the vaccines remain effective there's not much gain by rolling a new vaccine with a slightly modified spike for delta.

    What delta changed is in transmissibility.

    What hasn't changed is that the human immune system reduces the antibody count for coronavirus in general (T-Cell, B-Cell seems fine) which introduces latency in the bodies fight against the virus, the booster shots basically increase the antibody count back to a very high level and thus reduces that latency (as well as being more effective at reducing transmission), for a healthy young person, this probably isn't needed thus no booster requirement (as much as the no-jabbers would love to start declaring everyone unvaccinated, misery loves company after all). An annual booster will likely be sufficient for most (unless they want a jab sooner).



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Bookmark this one as the next "conspiracy theory that comes true".


    NPHET have been banging on for the last week about reducing contacts. Not seeing as many people as normal etc. Donnelly mentioned not going to Nightclubs 3-4 times a week.

    The absolute dream and I mean the Holy Grail of Tony Holohan is to crack down on Binge Drinking. Covid/No Covid, that is his dream. Don't be surprised if the Hospitality Passes get restricted to X times per week/month. All to stop the spread of the virus of course 😁



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If you are not able to use an apostrophe or ponctuation correctly. You should not be allowed on any public forum. It's infuriating at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The paper has this conclusion (full text above):

    Our results indicate that vaccination confers protection against onward transmission from vaccinated index cases, albeit somewhat less for Delta than for Alpha

    floorpie is honing in on the Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) number above which is 11% for vaccinated vs 12% unvaccinated (a 10% difference which is within the margin for error, I think I have the order right) in that scenario.

    So depending if you trust the authors of the paper or look at that one data point will change the conclusion of the paper.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's not even published yet as a bill and likely to be next month before there is a vote on it. All it plans to do is to roll up all the disparate bits into a single piece of legislation. And yes it will be permanent legislation but its use is unlikely to be. As I've said before there are plenty of parts of the Health Act we don't use on a day to day basis.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Not sure if you had the time to read it before you posted it but hears (as you might say) the « evidence » from you’re (as you might say) article :

    « ...the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus. »



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    Under what circumstances do you believe the NPHET Government will do away with that permanent legislation?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    That was also a quote specific to the AZ vaccine (which still reduces severe disease) the numbers are different for Pfizer.

    There will also be a booster available to everyone who got AZ to get a mRNA booster (is it an or a before mRNA?).



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Permanent just means not defined for a specified period, in other words virtually all of our legislation. Some legislation is subject to specific conditions and I've no idea they'll do here as there is still no bill to look at. Changes depend on cases going down and NPHET do love their stats on that. I reckon 600 cases a day will bring more of a smile to their faces.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,571 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    So only some unvaccinated people infuriate you?

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    The UK and Netherlands studies are amazingly consistent in terms of magnitudes of effects, albeit in Netherlands study they assessed sars-cov-2 infection rather than rates of C19



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