Joe Biden Presidency thread *Please read OP - Threadbanned Users Added 4/5/21*

Careful. Your misogyny is showing.

Look at her approval ratings and the way she appears to have been perceived. She doesn't seem to be popular and she seems to have been kept back from the limelight a surprising amount for somebody that's got say a 1/5 chance of becoming president by default*.

I am not a huge fan of Elizabeth Warren for example but she would have been a better choice.

*It would be interesting to see an proper insurance industry style analysis of the odds of Biden finishing out his term.

+1

81 million Americans voted for Joe Biden...... plus Kamala Harris so one could certainly argue she was duly elected too.

It's a m00t point anywho as I don't think there's any real fear of Biden not finishing out his first term. The only slim risk that I can envisage would come from MAGAheads or QANON loopers.

Also, while certain people have a problem with Kamala, I don't think there is the visceral hatred towards her as compared with AOC, Ilhan Omar etc.

I would say it's more a feeling of indifference towards Kamala. 😊

I don't think anyone is questioning his physical fitness... The US electorate aren't expecting him to carry in the shopping for them

Also physical fitness isn't actually that important in terms of cardiac issues which its normally assumed to be very important.

I am actually being generous, the US president is one of the most demanding jobs in the world (with the proviso that one is actually in charge: but that's a separate discussion).

The table I am drawing on is 2019 data for the risk at that point.

Over the 4 years of Bidens Presidency if he is the same as a normal male American there is 17.5 chance he will leave office in a coffin.

Say he is roughly half as likely as the average American to die, which is pretty generous. He's got great medical care but also he is old and has already survived the early deaths statistics. So that's 8.7% . Now it's pretty safe to say that if you have a 9% of dying then there is a higher chance of suffering a illness that would prevent one carrying out one of th toughest jobs in the world but let's say it's the same. So back to 17.5%.

That leaves us 2.5% to make up. If a 78-82 year old over four years only has a 2.5% chance of developing dementia or suffering a mental decline is very generous, figure is going to be way higher.

Basically saying there is a 1/5 chance of Biden leaving office early due to illness/ cognitive stuff or death is very generous.

Presuming he steps down when unable to carry out the job, if willing to be ran by others it's a different conversation.

On top of this, it can only be fair to make the argument that a solid % of the vote was not for Biden but more a vote for not-Trump.

Harris has been given a lot of flak in the past for sentencing a lot of black people in her legal days and then leveraging her race as someone who black voters should support.

Ronny Jackson said Trump would outlive us all, so by that metric....

Because the population is what 300 million ish and the figure is the there is something like a 75% chance of people dying between those ages.

I am pretty bad at stats though so could you show the working for where I am going wrong? Or what the figure you would arise at is.

I am not adding up the chance of death, I am using this formula.

I know the answer isn't completely correct as I am not factoring in the increased risk each year.

What's your working to show that in a 4 year period between 78-82 there isn't a 17.5% (or slightly higher) chance the person will die.

Basically my point stands, Biden leaving his end of term isn't the most likely event but it's not hugely unlikely either.

"In all calculations, we will assume independence. That may not be reasonable in the case of forest fires.

Suppose that the probability of a fire in the course of a month is 0.05

0.05, that is, 5%

5%, which is very high for any individual structure.

Then the probability of no fire in the month is 0.95

0.95.

The probability of no fire for 12

12 months in a row is then (0.95)

12

(0.95)12.

It follows that the probability of at least one fire in a year is 1−(0.95)

12

1−(0.95)12.

This is about 0.45964

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/490859/calculating-probabilities-over-longer-period-of-time

Plenty of similar videos of Trump, as you know. Not getting into this again, it's been done to death and you're clearly just trolling.

That was a phone typo which we've all done. None of you have a chance of finding a video of Trump gaffes at the magnitude of Biden as in the video above. (You should watch the entire thing too, it's hilarious!)