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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    I never said that. Although it is interesting coincidence I haven't looked into it enough to determine if that's a legitimate claim. The correlation doesn't prove anything. Doesn't mean it hasn't crossed my mind.

    But let's be real, there is an explanation and it's probably a lot more logical than "the anti vaxers had a massive unified change of heart and are now self isolating from the rest of society"

    Your idea sounds far more ridiculous to me.

    Anecdotally many people in my office who avoided covid prevaccine now have covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Found the report here:

    Fact Check-Vaccinated people in Britain are not dying at a higher rate than the unvaccinated | Reuters

    Report:

    COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 38 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

    Week 40 report (data is still being publicly published):

    COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 40 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

    Finding around the case rates appears to be due to the high vaccination uptake in those groups which skews the data:

    When much of a population has been vaccinated, most infections and deaths are “expected to be among those vaccinated”, Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St Andrews, previously told Reuters (here).

    I'm sure there is later weeks as well if you go looking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Rates per 100k aren't affected by denominators



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,086 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay



    I didn't post the footnote just pointed out the OP did not mention it. Take it up with the NHS.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    The footnote doesn't actually refer to anything if you look at the asterisks. I suppose it means not to make up percentages based on the absolute number columns.

    But WOW at the last two columns. Case rates are almost double amongst vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated (before a million comments say "there are more vaccinated", these are rates per 100k)




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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Week 43 here:

    COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 43 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

    Up to date data with more details:

    Readings of the data as well:

    Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness 

    against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described 

    on pages 4 to 7 in this report. The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not 

    take into account underlying statistical biases in the data. There are likely to be systematic differences in who chooses to be tested 

    and the COVID risk of people who are vaccinated. For example:

    • people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19

    • people who are fully vaccinated may engage in more social interactions because of their vaccination status, and therefore 

    may have greater exposure to circulating COVID-19 infection 

    • people who are unvaccinated may have had past COVID-19 infection prior to the 4-week reporting period in the tables 

    above, thereby artificially reducing the COVID-19 case rate in this population group, and making comparisons between the 2 

    groups less valid 



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    This table gives strong evidence that 1) vaccines are protective for vulnerable age groups, 2) young people don't need them, 3) this is a pandemic of the vaccinated who are spreading it to a dangerous degree, across all age groups. Covid certs have to go immediately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The authors do make it clear not to use the data that way, but I see you're back to restrictions and lockdowns again :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    In relation to the dangerous spread what do you think should happen, more restrictions?



  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    So basically this report is useless because if it give the numbers we don't want it's because the data is too flawed to be useful.


    Why collect useless data if you are just going to say why the tables aren't correct.


    Seems like a waste of time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Protect the vulnerable via vaccines (if they want them), distancing, increased capacity etc, remove all restrictions for everyone else. Well I preferred this 6 months ago, probably too late to do it here now until spring. I think lockdowns will likely be brought back in through Feb.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    And just to make sure the authors work isn't used against them, they do provide infection and transmission effectiveness data backed up with studies (where I'm sure the conclusions will also be ignored again):

    Effectiveness against infection

    Although individuals may not develop symptoms of COVID-19 after vaccination, it is possible that they could still be infected with the virus and could transmit to others. Understanding how effective vaccines are at preventing infection is therefore important to predict the likely impact of the vaccination programme on the wider population. In order to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection, repeat asymptomatic testing of a defined cohort of individuals is required. Studies have now reported on vaccine effectiveness against infection in healthcare workers, care home residents and the general population (12, 13, 14, 15). With the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness against infection has been estimated at around 65% with Vaxzevria and 80% with Comirnaty (4)


    Effectiveness against transmission

    As described above, several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection. Uninfected individuals cannot transmit; therefore, the vaccines are also effective at preventing transmission. There may be additional benefit, beyond that due to prevention of infection, if some of those individuals who become infected despite vaccination are also at a reduced risk of transmitting (for example, because of reduced duration or level of viral shedding). A household transmission study in England found that household contacts of cases vaccinated with a single dose had approximately 35 to 50% reduced risk of becoming a confirmed case of COVID-19. This study used routine testing data so would only include household contacts that developed symptoms and went on to request a test via pillar 2. It cannot exclude asymptomatic secondary cases or mildly symptomatic cases who chose not to request a COVID-19 test (16). Data from Scotland has also shown that household contacts of vaccinated healthcare workers are at reduced risk of becoming a case, which is in line with the studies on infection (17). Both of these studies relate to a period when the Alpha variant dominated. An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha variant and 35-65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to contacts of unvaccinated index cases (18).



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,086 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay



    Nearly 10 times more likely to catch Covid if you are unvaccinated and under 18. See easy to use a table to try and prove something.





  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It's useful data but knowing how it was collected and the biases involved in the collection should be taken as part of the reading of the results otherwise it's disingenuous (as the original poster who posted it was).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale


    Removing all restrictions will only increase the dangerous spread you speak of no?


    "spreading it to a dangerous degree." how do we stop this?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness 

    against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described 

    on pages 4 to 7 in this report




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    These are just the authors opinions, they aren't findings from their work.

    >Uninfected individuals cannot transmit; therefore, the vaccines are also effective at preventing transmission.

    This is also senseless



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They link back to sources for each of the statements being made.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    I'm not inferring effectiveness of vaccination. I'm saying that the vaccinated ARE spreading it to a dangerous degree (simply look at the table). There are likely many reasons for this rather than just vaccination, specifically, measures such as covid certs.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    But a lot of those comments are just assumptions.

    Healthy people are more like to take the vaccine. Is just bs. The fittest person in my office who runs mountain marathons hasn't taken the vaccine. All the fat arses have.

    My point being is they have a table like that and then a subjective comment about the types of people who will be mingling more as being the vaccinated.

    Biased and skewed is the words you would use no?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,553 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Scotland NHS one as well. Maybe they are making it up as well for some crazy reason.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Ah, I get you and partially agree, in Ireland this is called watching the hospitalisation counts and adjusting from there, but you're right that restricting the unvaccinated more is unlikely to help (even if they are an easy target for the government, similar to learner drivers always being targeted for road safety).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Yeah, therefore we need sensible restrictions for the vulnerable. Our current measures are not sensible to prevent this, due to an over-reliance on vaccination. Certs specifically are going to appear ridiculous in the court cases in a decade.

    I don't think we can stop it this winter, at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    in Ireland this is called watching the hospitalisation counts and adjusting from there

    This reactive approach is one specific failure in the response to this pandemic imo



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    You're equating anecdotes with evidence, the authors put together the data, the content and reading of it, it can't be taken in isolation to prove a point if the authors are saying the data shouldn't be used that way due to biases.

    edit: I will note that a lot of people were trying and failing to use the VAERS data this way as well



  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    Okay so you want to argue the table.

    I'll take 10 times more people who will never get that sick from covid under 18 than I would 2 times more people who will get sick after getting vaccinated.

    So you would argue that the table is correct and more vaccinated people above 18 are catching covid.

    Where do you want to go from here?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭bokale



    You say society is currently "spreading it to a dangerous degree." therefore we should open up society more. Surely it will continue "spreading it to a dangerous degree. " then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭watchingfromafar


    The author clearly has a bias towards getting vaccinated given the laundry list of reasons why their table looks a bit weird


    Authors comments aren't evidence. That's their opinion which unless I'm mistaken is not linked to further sources proving unvaccinated people are not health conscious

    Again. Nonsense.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    This is the UK weekly report on COVID, there are likely multiple authors, there will be an update next week with similar data collected, published and with explanations of the data.

    The point still stands, the data can't be used directly without also taking into the biases present when collecting that data no matter how much it suits a narrative.



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