Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

We are being a good neighbour. An incredibly good on in fact to both NI and our many neighbours in Europe. One neighbour is up all night shouting and blocking our driveway on purpose and don't deserve any respect from us.

Of all the parties involved no one is showing more care about the North than we are and I include a lot of the Northern parties in that group that don't have NIs best interest

Don't see Varadkar hoisted anywhere, not sure what you're on about.

The UK voted to leave the EU as was their right. Choosing to do so ruptured the delicate peace process in NI which was based on both the UK and RoI being in the EU i.e. single market and customs union, common standards, invisible border etc etc

Brexit destabilised NI and whilst the myriad of actual and proposed mitigations (back stop, sea border, unicorn technology etc) are designed to minimise that destabilisation none will return NI to the peaceful status quo which existed pre Brexit.

If we have a hard border with NI and I mean a real one not like what we had before it's gonna be a lot more serious than an auld Garda in a box on the side of the road. I know the population is vastly bigger but have you seen the Polish crossings.

Just wanted to ask. Is this comedy hour ?

The reason I ask that in a serious manner is all of the actually hilarous 'points' you just made have been positively thrashed in the 5 years this thread has been running.

I won't be debating on old ground as I've run out of comedic retorts to baseless claims such as the quote above ..

That is some twisting of the facts. The EU and Ireland have tried their best to negotiate Brexit with the UK so there would be smallest possible impacts on NI but current UK govt. is not interested in that.

No politicians on UK or EU or Irish sides made any "threats of violence" incl. Leo "Varadkhar" (sp). It is a fact that Brexit destabilises NI politically (this has already happened as predicted), which could lead to violence again given its history, and many people pointed this out. Giving a personal opinion, serious violence may be unlikely over these issues however it comes out in the end. Unionist political leaders have been banging the drums hard, directly calling on people to come out and protest for months over the NI Protocol, but actual level of anger about it, let alone willingness to commit acts of violence (absent some street protests by teenagers, graffiti and vandalism) seems low.

I don't recall any major difference between the 2 (3 now) Irish leaders in how they approached Brexit over last few years or what they have wanted to get for Ireland/NI out of the EU/UK Brexit negotiations. There is perhaps a difference of tone. Varadkar is a straight speaker and sometimes makes remarks off the cuff IMO, which has gotten him into alot of trouble domestically and he does the same on all subjects incl. foreign affairs. It seems to have made him a hate figure for Brexiters/Ulster Unionists. That is very funny in a way, given the undiplomatic comments the current UK PM is known (& loved) for.

On solutions there is none which is perfect here given UKs hard Brexit. Someone in NI is going to be disappointed. I mean even your "solution" of "Ireland being pragmatic" (I think that is probably some nice code for distancing ourselves from the EU, kowtowing to the UK govt. or the "Will of the British People" if you prefer that formulation) may not make Nationalists in NI very happy, even if might keep trade between NI-Ireland flowing freely and the border without customs. It is certainly not going to make people in this country happy. (Irish) people will see it for what it is at root really. As above bowing down to the UK, now run by a faction who don't like us much or wish us well + the Irish govt. and people doing things they don't want to (compromising on EU membership for sake of NI). Noone will think that is actually in Ireland's "best interests".

In the mainly Welsh speaking areas there was a clear majority against Brexit. As this article contends the narrow pro brexit vote in Wales was largely due to English retirees and migrants who make up about a fifth of the population now in Wales.

Wealthy English blow-ins ‘swung Welsh Brexit vote’ | News | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk)

It is a rehash of the old, tired and thoroughly debunked arguments already talked about.

Every so often they get repeated, as if new, and people get all excited that finally the 'truth' is out.

Stability in NI? Its the EU that wants things to stay as they were in NI, the UK wants to change. You have a strange view of the meaning of stability when you take the view those those looking to keep things the same are the problem. The peace process was working, both sides were relatively content. Then the UK decided that one side needed to loose out. They 1st went all in with the Unionists, until they went in the completely opposite direction.

That's a risible position to take. And it's a very old attempt at deflection from the impact of Brexit. Regardless of what the state of the UK is in 20 years, the people have to live in the here and now, and frankly, that's not working out very well, is it.

The UK growth rate for the last quarter is half that of the EU.

In the context of the UK coming out of Covid-related restrictions sooner than most, if not all, EU member states, which are clearly outpacing it in terms of economic recovery. Only Spain still trails the UK in terms of recovery to pre-Covid levels of economic activity.

Your comment reminds me of some Brexiters’ commentary on recent BoE messaging (that the Brexit hit to the UK economy of circa.4% of GDP was going to track economists’ predictions of 5 years ago) as ‘piddling’. They clearly don’t have the first understanding, of what that (apparently) small percentage represents on the ground for Joe Average in Sheffield or Banbury.

<‘this is fine’ burning building meme>

The figures are not Mad Max-bad, they were never going to be. But they track the ‘Project Fear’ forecasts of old, under which the British economic growth is going to remain much subdued relative to that of EU member states, with an ever-widening gap, and to what that growth could have been if the UK hadn’t Brexited.

(hint: this is the point at which the argument flips to ‘Brexit was about sovereignty, not the economy’ 😙)

But the claim was never made that Brexit was going to be a 15-20 year project. It was going to be an instant success, retaining all the benefits of the single market without all that bothersome European interference. It was going to be followed by "the easiest trade deal ever" with the EU with the UK free to subsequently rack up more trade deals all over the world. This change to "ah well it's a long term project" looks suspiciously like a new form of spin attempting to disguise Brexit's abject failure.

This whole 20 years thing is because the Tories know that by then so much will have happened that it will be harder to pin things on Brexit.

All they need is a Labour government or an Indyref 2 to blame things on and get them off the hook

As hilarious as it would be those numbers will swing fast when mentions of inches and sterling start to pop up