Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

I don't. All of the 27 potential vetoes will be very hard to get around for England.

England will have to accept ALL of the EU's 'acquis' whether as an EU member or just as a CU+SM member.

Being nice and sweet is no longer an option toward England and its exceptionalism.

We need England to accept full future cooperation on e.g. new EU initiatives like global minimum taxation for companies and rich people.

Lars 😀

Interesting to hear him say that even he was taken in by Johnson's spiel and assumed he must be intelligent - until he heard him giving almost the exact same speech, word for word, a few months later in a different venue (and realised it was just a load of pre-scripted guff).

I think the English deference to toffs with posh accents is a big factor. In most countries in Europe, a ridiculous figure like Johnson would be laughed out of it by the majority of the electorate. The idea that he is now running the UK (with no obvious skills as a politician or leader) is a bit mind boggling.

This is the country of the "We've all had enough of experts" campaign. I'm sure a sizable portion of Tory voters resent qualifications and competence. I can't get my head around how the toffs became the champions of the working man.

He has no morals or ethics but he does have cunning. Ironically for a man who studied philosphy. If he were Irish, he'd be a textbook cute hoor.

I found the below longread article on inward UK tourism wrt to Brexit/Covid quite interesting. Obviously tourism isn't a huge part of the UK economy, although critical for those who work within it.

Main point - incoming tourist numbers bouncing back far slower than countries from France to Greece - some covid related reasons but even within that there are some mismanagement issues - the perception that the UK is 'plague island' with poor covid management is difficult to overcome especially with the richer (Asian or American) tourist that the UK aims for - also the perception that the UK covid rules on entry are inconsistent and applied unfairly to non-UK travellers. The 'petrol/food/staff' shortage headlines seem to have hit home as well, even if they are not true. Perceptions are hard to get fight against.

And then some Brexit issues that I wouldn't have thought off - EU kids without passports can no longer get into the UK easily for school trips - whilst Brexiteers would point out that it's obviously not an onerous task to get a passport, the simpler solution is to organise your schools trip to somewhere that accepts ID cards. Then there's tax-free shopping (those 'get your VAT back' signs at airports) - rather than offer it to EU citizens post Brexit they decided to scrap the scheme totally which again affects the high-spending Asian/MiddleEast tourist.

UK tourism is crashing. Here's why | CNN Travel

I read an interesting Twitter thread last year about how many English working class people think it is their destiny to be ruled by toffs - and how they are at the same time resentful of fellow working class people rising up through the ranks to leadership positions. So they will look up to the toff with a posh accent like Johnson, but not to the working class person who has done well.

It's a mindset you would rarely see anywhere else in Europe. Most European countries are republics or hybrid republics, with the firm idea that every citizen in the country is equal.

Yes, I think we nearly forget just how pronounced and ingrained the English class system is - probably much more so than in any country in the world. We've seen it depicted in Upstairs Downstairs and Downton Abbey and in many other places.

Google "UK GDP per capita." Follow the various links, one led to I think world bank historical data.

The accent is a very interesting one. There is an almost subliminal idea planted that there is an "accent of authority" that reassures people

I thin that Boris will leave Frost push and push and when he finally snaps the EU's patience Frost will be dropped like a hot spud and Boris will U turn exclaiming that's what he wanted all along. Pure Donald Trump playbook. Use the useful fool for as long as he is useful then knife him in the back and start again with someone else.

Regarding Johnson being intelligent, I have no doubt that he is, he's really cunning, same as Trump he brings every argument down to beating the person opposite him, not winning the argument, just undermining his direct opponent; it's like the simple slogans, just refuse to debate the issue, keep spouting three word slogans etc. In PM's questions he never debates the issues, just repeats any old nonsense.

The funny thing is, the Tories might well dump him by the middle of next year to get a new leader embedded for the next election. I suspect the longer he's in power the less lovable the public ill find him. Much like letting Frost fight the EU, replacing Boris and blaming him for all the Brexit Blues and leaving a leader with clean hands prepare for the next election is probably the most likely thing to happen. The Tory press turning on him over sleaze is part of the softening up process. There's also the issue that his cupboard probably still has plenty of skeletons.

P.S. Jennifer Accuri is beginning to look like Annie Murphy of Bishop Casey fame, this slow leak of Boris related twaddle is gaining no traction. No one doubts he was chasing her like a dog after a bitch in heat, but does anyone care? Is it news to anyone that as serial philanderer was chasing some skirt.

Sleaze is the most dangerous skeleton for Boris, before he became Tory Leader and won the next election, all the stuff about his character, lazy, always taking short cuts etc were fully aired. No-one voted for Boris because he was a nice guy, they voted for him because he stood for nothing, same as Trump, he made people think he stood for what they wanted. The difference with Trump, bizarrely, is Trump tried to follow through on his promises, the last thing anyone thought would happen.

Boris has followed through on nothing. Even that lady in prison in Iran, once the Tory press aren't making a fuss about it he simply doesn't care.

"Ruffles the guinea Pig" is now an expert on EU politics.

Enough to warrant an express article: https://web.archive.org/web/20211115002902/https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1521293/brexit-news-ireland-eu-article-16

The sheer delusion in that article. I guess we're getting kicked out of the SM market to avoid a trade war that the UK would "win".

Me neither!

Is it meant to signify three different years perhaps? Same countries in each column.

But practically every country the UK would compare itself to dropped a similar number of positions. Proves nothing about Brexit impact

Speculation by some legal experts that the UK triggering A16 could well fall foul of British domestic law (no justifiable legal reason to trigger it, other than Johnson and Frost wanting it triggered.....thus could become an illegal action and the decision struck down by the courts).

Lol. Shell has only one thing in mind. Tax avoidance not a vote of confidence in the UK. It's a vote of confidence in UK sleaze.

They'd have to get a change of law through the House of Lords — good luck with that. The Commons can, of course, overrule the Lords, but that takes time. The Commons has to pass the same Bill twice in two successive parliamentary sessions, which takes about a calendar year. So the attempt to invoke Art 16 could get bogged down for many months in court actions and parliamentary manoeuvrings, which does not exactly create the impression of effectiveness and competence the government would like.

A couple of weeks ago the government was known to be shopping around London for a reputable law firm that would advise them that what they were proposing to do with regard to Art 16 was legally sound and would withstand challenge. It is - ahem - just possible that they couldn't find anyone who was willing to offer that opinion, and this may be a factor in their downplaying of expectations that an invocation of Art 16 is imminent.