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Will there be another lockdown?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,348 ✭✭✭basill


    Nearly two years we are at this game of whack a mole. We locked down to prevent the spread and to save the old and infirmed from dying. We were told to wait for the vaccines and then they came and we have one of the highest take ups in the world but still its not enough for the HSE. In this period what has the health service achieved to prepare for any future waves? During each lockdown I would have thought it logical that contact tracing teams would be put in place and government departments would all sing from the hymn sheet? How many extra ICU beds have been created? Did the government compulsory purchase order any private hospitals? What about additional consultants? And remind me how is the kiddies hospital coming along?

    Nope the inept government trots out Tone and his cronies to front the media campaign and scare us with gobblegook statistics and "models" in an attempt to scare the life out of the ordinary citizen. The 22/10 came and went and it was clear for all to see that the government lacked leadership and a coherent plan for reopening even though they had months to sit around and eat the custard creams and put together a set of rules. It was days after that many of the actual rules were actually agreed leaving businesses in the lurch and wondering if they would be fined or put out of business.

    And during this nearly two years spell the hospital waiting lists continue to grow, the HSE continues to be sued for negligence and drag families through the courts only to stump up at the 11th hour when faced with certain defeat.

    I am sorry but if you are immuno compromised, can't or won't take a vaccine then there is nothing else we can do for you. Take the HSE advice and self isolate and all the usual precautions with regards to hygiene.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,772 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Unfortunately I think there is not other option other than another lockdown, the situation is just too bad.

    Hopefully it happens before the hospitals are overrun and it’d be nice to think we’ll be out of it by Christmas.


    Its depressing, that’s for sure, but hospitals are on the brink already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Yeah that's the aim. Depends on number of cases and the rate of cases requiring hospitalisation or resulting in death.

    The vaccines are definitely working. We know that because the rate of people catching covid who become seriously sick is way down. Thst means we can have more transmission in the population without too many people becoming seriously sick and that's great. Whether that will mean we can go through the whole winter without restrictions is unlikely, but hopefully a lockdown can be avoided.



  • Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Another lockdown is basically impossible at this point, regardless of how bad the hospitals get. Restriction of indoor activities/opening hours etc is a possibility but anything resembling 2020 - forget about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,190 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    3805 cases yesterday. Thing is when is the number going to be high enough before a lockdown seems more likely?

    I want to think that your average, normal, level headed person doesn't want another lockdown. But with Christmas shopping around the corner and the cold weather should things be closing?

    I know a woman in her 60s who got covid over the weekend. Likely due to her job as she deals with the public.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    It's impossible (and unnecessary) at this point but that's why they're not proposing it at this point. If things deteriorate then it would become quite possible.

    Basically it's unnecessary now. If it becomes necessary hen it will be very possible and most people would go along with it at that point - IF it were necessary. Likewise various levels of restriction are more likely if things deteriorate from where they are now.

    The modelling says it will peak in late November which would probably be ok. Not sure why the modelling says that but that's the best data they/we have at the moment. .



  • Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    3805 out of 5 million - that's the figure to keep in perspective. There won't be any buy in for another lockdown, and they can't exactly go shutting everything again and wheeling out the PUP because we've already dug enough of a financial grave with the previous lockdowns.


    I think we are going to see a lot of deaths this winter but it has to be accepted, we can't turn off the lights again for 6 months and there isn't a hope of anybody buying it with a 90% vaccination rate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Lockdown is much less likely than restrictions. Restrictions could vary from pretty light-touch, all the way to full lockdown.

    I doubt there will be need (or appetite) for full lockdown, but restrictions are pretty likely. MM mentioned restrictions like additional covid cert requirements. That's much more likely than a full lockdown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    That's not remotely the most important number to keep in mind. The rate of infection turning to serious illness and projection to ICU cases and death over time, would be far more important numbers. Those numbers might be fine and no need for concern, but I don't pretend to know what those numbers are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Extending covid certs will make no difference. Only restrictions that might help outside of lockdowns are mandatory WFH again and make the colleges go back to online learning (maybe if they need to here first, they can cap it and go lectures/practicals of up to 30/40 etc are allowed, but anything larger has to be online)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4 HazeNee


    I think the anti-vaxxers will have a field day if there's another lockdown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Absolutely, case numbers mean nothing now - it could be 10k a day and as long as the ICU numbers don't go mad it would be completely irrelevant. What a shambles of a health service we have though that we are even having this discussion again - what exactly did they do for the 18 months they had to upgrade capacity? I shudder to think how we would cope with a mass casualty event in this country, one where the casualties would immediately fill the ICU beds to capacity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Extending covid certs would have an impact. I don't see how you think it would have no impact. Do you mean it would only have a small impact?

    I'd say most individual interventions would have a small impact in isolation. That's why they tend to introduce multiple restrictions



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I've no interest in defending the government for a couple of reasons including the fact thstbi don't understand the complexity of increasing the size of services at short notice. I don't understand the estates, procurement or staffing challenges for example.

    But I think we can agree that if the numbers change so that the ICU comes under severe pressure or the number of deaths goes very high, then there will likely be further restrictions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It is not the 3805 cases from 25K cases that is the problem. It is the amount of people unknowingly going around with it and passing it on to others that is the problem.

    The 3805 cases who tested positive are isolating, they have been captured and not spreading it to anyone.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    I mean, we're not really hearing of huge outbreaks in hairdressers or gyms tbh, so unless that is happening and we've not been told it, I don't see what extending covid certs to them actually does. For them to be brought in imo, you need a clear benefit and it's arguable that there's no proof of the benefit of them working in bars and restaurants never mind less social places.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,772 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Having kept the lockdown going too long in the first half of the year, my fear is the Government don't want to introduce another one now, even though it's required.

    Having lockdowns is sh1t, no doubt, but with poor hospital capacity we could end up in an even worse situation if the government are indecisive and afraid to be unpopular.


    It's a shame the vaccines haven't got rid of Covid, a massive disappointment, but that's what's happened, there is a need to drastically reduce the level of interactions for a few weeks at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Do we have that kind of granular data on where everyone who gets covid, likely picked it up? I wouldn't expect to see huge outbreaks in barber shops for example, considering the volume of people in a barber shop. But unless there are no transmissions in barbers' shops then I don't see how you could claim that extending the certs would have no impact.

    I'd presume they would have a fairly modest impact. But I'd presume every individual intervention has a modest impact (with exception of mass scale interventions like mandatory work from home or something similar.

    The intended impact wouldn't be to prevent all transmissions. The intended impact would be to reduce transmissions amongst the people who are most likely to end up getting seriously sick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    I think HPSC was collating data on where outbreak happens but not sure what sort of categorization is being used, and with how they treat the school outbreak data, not sure how reliable it actually is.

    Logically, you'd assume transmission in hairdressers/barbers would be low. You're wearing a mask, socially distanced customers in a lot of cases, and for men in particular, you're in there a very short amount of time. I'd say cases from someone picking it up in there are so low that any reduction from covid certs would be miniscule, and unless NPHET can actually show it having an impact, I'd be saying it's pointless to do it. The drawbacks outweigh the impact imo.

    Any extra restrictions need to be where the pros outweigh the cons imo, and I don't believe it does in that case. Mandating WFH again would have far more pros, and considering case loads in the 19-24 group, putting all large lectures in college online would have a big impact too. Dropping our cases by 10 a week isn't something we should be aiming for here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,187 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    That's fair enough. Since neither of us have the actual numbers, we're at risk of getting into battling my made numbers against your made up numbers. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That is exactly the situation, there is no alternative unfortunately. Everyone knew the healthcare system was the main weakness and opening up going into winter was just going to make it worse, but they still did it anyway.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭virginmediapls



    It is ridiculous. It is tired. It is sourcing from Facebook. It's agenda posting. It's uneducated. It's expecting all of the rights without any of the obligations. It's everything that's wrong with Ireland at the moment and you should be ashamed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,734 ✭✭✭lalababa


    If hospitalizations and ICU continue to rise ..which they are likely to do...then there will be reimposed restrictions. Such as mass gatherings, nightclubs, pubs , work from home. And tis no big deal really



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,772 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    There doesn't seem to be the will to take decisive action again, instead they're talking about vaccine passes being required in more places and asking people to stay at home instead of socialising.

    I'm concerned about how this will end up, there are echoes of last Christmas already. Hopefully I'm wrong and we can not lockdown and not have the hospitals overrun, but it's hard to be confident.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,299 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    There should be an upscale in audits, by army/civil defense in plain clothes doing spot audits on premises not in compliance.

    its know to be happening it’s a deterrent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,767 ✭✭✭hynesie08


    Thousands of people will be out of work, hundreds of business will go to the wall and the government would have to borrow billions to pay for it........


    No big deal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    No big deal? Another couple of billion we don't have thrown at hospitality. The national debt is ridiculous and their is interest rate rises on the horizon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,163 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    This is a surge hopefully and will start to reduce soon. I don't see another lockdown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 604 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    Someone posted about how the unvaccinated have "contributed to their situation" which is why I then made the comparison.

    If people make inflammatory comments like that then there will be responses! Anyone on the vaxxed side of the debate can say whatever they want it seems!!

    I don't have an agenda either. I have an opinion.

    I'm not ashamed, get down off your high horse!!!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,163 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    If they become seriously ill then an unvaccinated person has contributed to their situation!



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